wgnstart

The above picture was taken in 2004 when I attended the Welsh Grand National to watch my anti post bet (14/1) on Silver Birch win at SP of 7/2. The following year I was everyone’s new best friend when tipping up L’Aventure at 14/1 (SP).

Although it’s been a barren event since, every year I always target this race as my one big National Hunt bet of the festive period.

Like all idiosyncratic UK race courses, Chepstow is a specialist track due to the undulating course configuration. It’s similar to Cheltenham in that not all horses like to jump uphill AND downhill. In addition when ground conditions are soft/heavy completing the race requires an abundance of stamina and some!

In recent years typically the winner of this race came from the bottom of the weights as it pays to carry a light burden around the mud over 3m 5f. However as Notre Pere and Halcon Genelardais reminded us  in 2008 and in 2006 the classier types at the top of the weights have ability which trumps weight when running against poor opposition.

Given their poor record in this event, any horse that ran in the Hennessey Gold Cup is an automatic elimination from consideration. Also, those that are aged greater than 9, without a racecourse run over 60 days or making their course reappearance.

With this in mind here are my thoughts on the short listed runners.

Le Beau Bai – With a recent win at this course on ground conditions that are likely to be repeated in the national. As the current market leader who in recent years have failed to live up to expectations his likely price is far too short but potential for a place spot/Exacta candidate.

The Tother One – Breeding negative (stamina)

Halcon Genelardais – The class of the field!

Silver By Nature – Slight breeding negative but will love the likely ground conditions. From a northern stable and their collective record in the race is poor. Triple negative is that he’s a likely front runner on a track that’s saps the strength of horses with this running style.

Operation Houdini – Irish raider and the Welsh National has been the target for the stable from day one. Ran over hurdles last time out to protect handicap mark.

Coe – Another who will love the predicted underfoot conditions. Not sure if there is enough improvement in the tank to take this race.

Conclusion
Halcon Genelardais would have been overlooked without a second thought as he has not won since his 2006 win in the Welsh Grand National. Also the recent runs of the Alan King stable have not lived up to standards of previous years. There may be a problem in the yard?

However my thoughts changed after watching Kauto Star bolt up in the King George on Boxing Day. Behind him (by a distance) were Madison Du Berlais (2nd) and Imperial Commander (5th). Both were both sucking on Kauto’s exhaust fumes when running in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on the 21st Nov. Behind them all was Halcon Genelardais.

He may not win this race but he has made the frame 7 times in his last 8 Class 1 Graded races and in my conclusion, banker material for a place spot in this company.

Operation Houdini is the stranger in the field. His trainer has had this race in mind for sometime and with Notre Pere’s win last year he feels there’s a big pot to plunder on this side of the Irish Sea. However I’m concerned that his jumping may let him down as he’s prone to the odd mistake and he may not have escaped the attention the handicapper.

Halcon Genelardais: split stake (20%/80% win/place) @ 10/1 generally
Operation Houdini: win @ 12/ 1 generally

a. Operation Houdini
b. Silver By Nature
c. Coe
d. Halcon Genelardais
e. Le Beau Bai

ABC over ABCDE exacta (12 lines)

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