Mistakes are the portals of discovery.
James Joyce
Irish author (1882 - 1941)

In the grand scheme of life what I’m about to say may seem unimportant, but I have fritted away my investiment fund i.e betting bank again!How? A string of losses since January followed by an attempt to blast my way out of a hole in the Grand National now means my betting bank is as empty as Northern Rock’s coffers. At least they can go cap in hand to the Bank of England. I have to recharge my fund from my main income.

The golden rule in gambling is never bet more than you can afford to lose. I have not lost much; only £50 which is a sum that most people piss against the wall during an evening on the town. For me it’s the principle that is annoying.

Four years down the road after my decision to try and become a professional punter (and about 4 betting banks in total £400-£500) that elusive dream seems such a long long way away. What went wrong this time? It was not the classic “chasing losses” that resulted in the demise of betting bank #5.

I diligently handicapped every race. I kept records, I didn’t overstake, I watched races and kept notes, I tried to obtain value in every bet. I researched and educated myself. In fact I worked as hard as I could to emulate behaviours I considered to be the activities of a true horse racing professional.

However, what did me in was the continual erosion of funds through losing! As a consequence losing eroded my confidence till I reached a point when I asked myself the question “is it all worth it”, “what’s the point”.

At this point I took a bite from the reality sandwich, realised the inevitable, pressed the nuclear self destruct button and went down fighting in a hail of betting slips. Although I don’t consider this to be classic “on the tilt behaviour”. For me I just resigned myself to failure and the fact that I need to take a reset.

There is a hope.

During the last three months I have diligently kept records of every bet I have made. In parallel I have also kept a records on my wagering choices, my reasons, how I manage my money and most importantly what was going on in my head during betting.

Given that there are no courses that you can attend to become a professional punter, I guess that the “estimated” £500 I have lost so far can be considered educational fees to the gambling gods. Here’s what I have discovered

I am a excellent handicapper. Give me an All Weather race and the pundits chair on At The Races or Racing UK and I would back myself to outdo any of the presenters or guest from the racing media or professional punters in analysing a low grade run of the mill handicap on the sand. Although, my records indicate I’m a loser.

In keeping detail records of what was going on in my head during betting I have discovered a darker side to my character when it comes to betting. Not looking for excuses but some/all of the behaviours below ensure that I maintain a sub 15% strike rate and poor ROI.

1. I am hopelessly optimistic when assigning chances to what should be outsiders.

2. I spend far too much time trying to figure out who the winner will be, instead of trying to figure out if there’s a way I can make money in the race.

3. Related to (2) I find it extremely hard to pass races for reasons I have written in previous comments.

4. I haven’t quite learnt the art of “opposite logics”. During race analysis I tend to dismiss the chances of runners based on one criteria when I should consider positives and negatives to obtain a more balanced view of each horses chances in the race.

5. I have taken “contrarian” to the point of defiance. “I’m right and the market is wrong” and just like my Taurian sister I stubbornly back all of my contenders when I should be siding with the market instead of swimming against the tide. Or heading in the opposite direction when I’m swept along with the crowd.

6. When my brain follows a process, I’m ok. When I allow my brain to conduct critical thinking without a structure, I fall foul of the “Conformation Bias”.

7. I am to too eager to progress out of the “bet win single” world to more advanced forms of wagering i.e. exactas

8. Prior to my decision to try to go “pro” I frequented betting shops. Typically if you don’t join in the “this game is bent” conversations with fellow punters you tend to cocoon yourself in your own world.

Looking back, this period of time was my most profitable. Today I sit at home in front of my desk top computer, I have Racing UK, ATR and Sky Plus+, access to my Betfair account via my mobile and computer, trading software and oddschecker. Am I any better? I am not blaming my tools, I’m beginning to think that I should stop delegating decision making responsibility to these “tools”.

Again I’m using the blog to vent my frustrations.

Now vented, I’m going to take the rest of the week off to reflect, review, count the wounded, bury the dead, rebuild the betting bank (i.e. credit betfair from my savings account) in preparation for my field trip to Kempton next weekend.

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