The objective of my recent visit to Kempton was to try and get my head around All Weather course configurations. Again yet another lesson to that I learnt from Lingfield, being on course is very different compared to the impressions determined by a 26in Grundig wide screen TV.

Kempton’s elongated straights and sweeping turns make this a flat, galloping track similar to Nottingham but the other way round. On the Saturday of my visit, there were 4 races on the card which contested ran over 8 furlongs and 2 over 7 furlongs. Although not a realistic sample size to draw conclusions (excuse the pun) I will anyway.

As right handed track you would think that Kempton conferred an advantage to those berthed in high draw, think again,

14:10 1st (stall 1) 2nd (stall 2) 3rd (stall 8 ) 7 runners 8f
14:45 1st (stall 8) 2nd (stall 5) 3rd (stall 4) 9 runners 8f
15:20 1st (stall 3) 2nd (stall 5) 3rd (stall 7) 9 runners 8f
15:55 1st (stall 5) 2nd (stall 8 ) 3rd (stall 10) 10 runners 7f
16:30 1st (stall 16) 2nd (stall 15) 3rd (stall 15) 15 runners 8f
17:05 1st (stall 4) 2nd (stall 1) 3rd (stall 6) 10 runners 7f

I have been monitoring results from the start of the year and my data coincides with my experiences during my visit.

The chart above is one that I have created and plots the draw position of the winner for races ran over 7/8 furlongs at Kempton. I have similar charts for the other A/W courses.Ok, so the charts are slightly flawed in that they take no account of field size but ages ago I abandoned absolutes in my handicapping to look for trends and the trends indicates that TV pundits who say that a low draw at Kempton is a disadvantage are applying an incorrect perception.My observations are the draw advantage at Kempton is a factor of

a. field size
b. pace.

Although Kempton has a long straight, the bigger the field size the harder it is from those draw out wide to position themselves in a handy position before the right-handed turn. Failure to do so ensures a kiss of death wide position, 4/5 horses deep from the inside rail.

In smaller fields, those draw high seemed to run faster to maintain their “perceived” advantageous draw position. What pans out (especially when they complete the right turn and approach the inner circuit) is that they set the race up for something else. I‘m not saying that a horse cannot “make all” at Kempton. My pace charts indicate that you can but the jockey needs a bloody good horse underneath him at 7/8 furlongs.

Why is this the case? The 4 furlong straight before the finish line.

The pace chart above seems to trend toward horses that like to make a late charge.Unlike Wolverhampton over 7/8 furlongs which tends to favour horses that like to be not the driver of the van, but in the passenger seat as opposed to a rear seat.The other aspect of Kempton is that the course is flat, therefore having now experienced Wolverhampton, Lingfield, and now Kempton first hand I am formulating the opinion that Lingfield should be treated as a specialist track of all the A/W courses.

So What? After discussion with Mr S (mentioned in the previous post), I recognised that I have a key eye for pace and how it relates to the draw/track bias. Unfortunately I have not exploited my knowledge of pace and draw bias. In fact I have spent more time handicapping the handicappers and not kept things simple.

Mr S focused on in his edge, so should I.

Related Posts