After spending some significant time thinking about my decision making and reading some really good research on the subject, I have “decided” that I require a process that structures my thinking during the crucial phase of handicapping which is contender selection and ranking of contenders. So instead of allowing my brain to arrive at some arbitrary decision using variation of the “six thinking hats” technique once I’ve handicapped each individual horse in the race, I approach contender selection from different perspectives to arrive at a shortlist and relative rank.

Pricing the race is then a matter of mathematics depending on the following

Lesser of Evil/Chaos/Contentious: Races are less predictable, the crowd and I have the same problem of assessing the relative chances of contenders. Set the tissue starting point much higher to compensate. When betting, determine if the crowd overvalues certain contenders to find value elsewhere

Orderly/Stakes in Action/Basic Race: There no secrets in the pass performances, what the crowd knows, I know. Set the tissue starting point much lower. When betting determine if the crowd undervalues one of your contenders. 

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