Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory and few calculations to defeat? How much more no calculation at all? It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose.

Sun Tzu - on the art of war

It is now time to stop tinkering with the web site and get on with it.

What “it” is are a set of profitable betting strategies and each needs to be grown from seed, developed and nurtured toward profitable maturity

I considered switching allegiance to a sport other than horse racing, but that would require a protracted period of study. For the moment, I have suspended betting on the All Weather surface until I can 1. Find a winning method and 2. Find a replacement form book or alternative data for pre race analysis.

For the moment I will use the Racing Post as my source of data given that their information is freely available on its web site and the paper version is cheap to purchase if required.

Sticking to what I know (horse racing), the first strategy I have chosen is simple to implement and plays into my strengths as a handicapper.

Virtual Racing

The strategy is called “Virtual Stable” and its objective is to identify horses who in my opinion are winners in waiting.

Originally documented by American Handicapper Steve Davidowitz as the “Key Race Method” and applied to British Racing in the book Seconds Into Winners – An exploration of time and pace; my version of the technique is implemented as follows

The first stage of the process is to identify races that were faster than class at the following courses

  • Grade 1: Ascot, Chester, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown, York
  • Grade 2: Ayr, Doncaster, Epsom, Haydock, Newcastle

The rational here is that form from these courses is competitive but more reliable so when a horse drops in relative grade (either course or race) it is more likely to disadvantage its rivals especially if the horse was disadvantaged in its previous run.

Races which are run faster than class do not automatically equate to every horse coming out of the race as winner in waiting. What they do, and very effectively, is to point out certain races which MIGHT contain potentially superior runners.

Flat festival meetings (i.e. Guineas, Ascot, and Glorious Goodwood) and competitive bookie sponsored races are a goldmine of future winners and I will pay particular attention to the results from these meetings and races.

The next step in the process is to identify horses that are potential winners and add them to the virtual stable. I will also note impressive winners who must be followed during the course of the season.

From this point I will pay close attention to each horse next run(s) as potential betting opportunities; this is the final stage of the process.

So, does membership in the slipperytoad stable mean an automatic bet next time out?

Well it depends on a host of different factors, the main one being the conditions of the race being similar to that previously noted plus other handicapping factors. The overriding veto is our friends the bookies and our old adversary the crowd.

If they have also identified my virtual horse as a lively contender consequently the odds of the notebook horse will offer no value. To militate against the lack of value, I will consider taking an early price the night before or prior to the race.

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