The first adjustment to the process in 2009

Like all professional punters I am always on the hunt for value. The ‘only’ way to sniff out these illusive bets is to create a tissue pre race, match your opinion just before the off and back horses that are paying more than your tissue.

The phrase “paying more” equals the punters “edge” or “advantage” i.e. you perceived something in the race which the crowd did not see.

Most punters fall into the category of backing a horse at any price as long as it wins.

The so called “pro punters” fall into the category of not backing a horse unless their opinion against the crowd is at least 20% (ref Dave Nevison – A Bloody Good Winner).

Guess who was trying to squeeze an 80% advantage?

Reviewing my calculations last night, I found that I was adding margin for error upon margin for error made during race analysis. The resultant tissues were way off base when compared to the market which in my opinion is fairly efficient with the advent of Betfair.

For the moment I will try and achieve a 50% edge using the following formula

Edge = Probability of win x odds – probability of loss
Money Secrets At The Racetrack – Barry Meadow

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