If your search the various chat forums and read enough handicapping literature punters can be divided into selection orientated (a winner at any price) verses value orientated (a bet at “A” price).

After a number of aborted attempts I nailed my colours to the small percentage of punters who are value orientated given that this method can be proved objectively and match my cautious character.

One of the essential tools required in value betting is your own betting forecast.

What puts most punters off (and by definition forcing them to become selection orientated) is the very act of doing one is considered too complicated and time consuming. Why bother when bookies provide a perfectly adequate list of starting prices on betting shop screens or on course in the betting ring?

I can testify after many attempts that it can take a while to get your head around the act of creating a personal odds line however; today I can announce that I have reached a stage where I now have confidence in my own approach.

The tissue below is from yesterdays 7.50 at Kempton

betting fc

The winner was Emirates Sports. I am not concerned that he was third choice my tissue as this was due to an easily corrected handicapping error (garbage in = garbage out)

The spreadsheet automatically calculates the odds line to 100% using base odds from Corals who are (via “informed” opinion), the most proficient in the business when it comes to odds on horses.

Using on course market odds just before the off, the spreadsheet calculates my percentage edge with anything over 15% (highlighted in green) considered a value bet. Any horse with an edge over 50% (highlighted in red) is reviewed to determine why I and the market differ in our respective opinions.

The columns in grey use the Kelly Criterion to determine what percentage of my bank I should stake depending on confidence either high (full kelly), medium (half kelly) or low (qtr kelly).

The calculations to create the spreadsheet are well documented. What’s not well documented is the effect of the favourite-long shot bias. An understanding of this anomaly ensures accuracy when pricing outsider’s verses legitimate contenders and the spreadsheet factors this bias into the base calculations.

So there are no excuses now. Its time to record each and every bet to monitor my method using the tools above.

Update: 15:48 pm 2/7/09

After reading the comments above I guess you are wondering what is my motivation in create a personal betting forecast. Here’s your answer

And here’s the real downer for those of us looking for the magic bullet: “The fact of the matter is, there is no short cut. The only way to win is through sheer hard work.”

Which is what Veitch engages in, spending hour upon hour analysing horses’

performance, to see how that matches up to bookies’ pricing, seeking always to find a profitable gap between assumption and fact.

Patrick Veitch: Tormentor of the bookies

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