Two speeds today, slow and stop.

The brain cells are recovering after a night out with the lads that ended at 5am in the morning. My mates like casinos so we decided to visit the Grosveror in Bristol.

You know the place, its featured in an episode of “Only Fool and Horses”

For mathematical reasons, yours truly does not bet in a casino if they dont have a craps table so I decided to while away the evening (and early morning) observing the game of Roulette

“No one can possibly win at roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn’t looking.”

Albert Einstein

During the course of the evening I questioned a few punters on their rational for selection, the responses I received were

“this number [x] is due”
“select the opposite position on the wheel of the last number that came up”
“its my lucky number”
“whatever number that comes into my head”
“based on the sequence I’ve noted on my bit of paper”

The gambler’s fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the false belief that the probability of an event in a random sequence is dependent on preceding events, its probability increasing with each successive occasion on which it fails to occur. If a fair coin is tossed repeatedly and tails comes up many times in a row, a gambler may believe, incorrectly, that heads is more likely on the following toss. Such an event may be referred to as “due”.

With a house advantage of 5.25%, alcohol and flawed logic, the casinos have it over punters all too easy.

I’ll stick to horses, at lease you can reduce the field into contenders and non contenders and therefore tilt the odds in your favour.

Now where did I put those headache tables?

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