1. Treat Southwell form in isolation.
Remember that Southwell form is the only all weather track that has a Fibresand surface and that it rides very differently to the Polytrack used at the other five all weather tracks in Britain and Ireland. Be wary of in form horses who are switching from Fibresand to Polytrack or vice versa,as they not be able to transfer their form.

2. Avoid debutants at Southwell.
Fibresand is a deeper surface with more kickback than Polytrack,which makes Southwell a hostile environment for in experienced horses,and it’s usually worth avoiding debutantes at the track. Since 2000,the strike rate of juvenile newcomers at Southwell is 5.5 per cent which is inferior to the 6.2 per cent at the Polytrack venues.

3. Follow Haafhd’s progeny on Polytrack.
When assessing the chances of experienced horses,it’s always worth taking a look at their breeding,as the progeny of certain sires seem to take to Polytrack or Fibresand better than others. It’s still early days for Polytrack,but one sire who is achieving remarkable results with his first crop on the surface is Haafhd. The record of his progeny on Polytrack in Britain and Ireland stands at 11 winners from 29 runners.

4. Follow Pivotal and Captain Rio’s offspring at Southwell
Pivotal used to be the top sire to follow at Southwell,but his blossoming stud career means that these days fewer of his offspring are handled by trainers who regularly send runners to the track. However,this season there will be plenty of trainers who like having runners at Southwell with Captain Rio’s progeny among their ranks,and he is rapidly becoming the new king of the Fibresand sires. The record of Captain Rio’s progeny at the track is ten winners from 40 runners ( 25 per cent,£47.38 profit to a £1 level stake ).

5. Importance of speed
Racing on synthetic surfaces places an emphasis on speed,whether the races are staged over 5f or 2m.It’s absolutely essential that you are able to travel well on the all weather.

6. Latch on to the top apprentices.
The all weather has been a fertile ground for some of the brighter young apprentices to showcase their talents,and promising riders who are good value for their claims are always in demand. The low grade handicaps that make up a seizable chunk of the racing are often loaded with exposed and closely matched horses,so booking a good apprentice can make a massive difference.

The key is to catch these hot apprentices early. This is highlighted by the fact Kirsty Milczarek’s all weather record from the start of September 2007 to the end of March 2008 was 49 winners from 268 rides ( 18.3 per cent strike rate ) and that £10 on each of these rides would have resulted in a £500 profit. The two to follow this season could be Frederick Tylicki and Andrea Atzeni.

7. Look out for horses who are likely to get soft leads in small fields.
Pace is one of the most important factors in all weather racing,so a good angle is to find horses who may get soft leads in small fields.

8. Make a note of free going sorts who run well in tactical middle distance/staying races.
Horses rarely win when they erode vital energy reserves by pulling to hard in the early stages,so horses who race keenly but still manage to finish in the first third of the field are definitely worth putting into the memory bank.

9. Follow Gary Moore.
Record in the last 5 seasons

Course w-r (%) p/l
Great Lieghs 7-23 (30) +20.25
Kempton 40-244 (16) + 4.34
Lingfield 89-641 (14) + 21.87
Wolves 18-83 (22) + 27.74
Southwell 10-52 (19) – 4.34

Gary Moore has sent out more than 1,000 runners on the all weather in the last five seasons,so it’s remarkable that you could have made a profit by backing his horses at each of the four Polytrack courses,while at Southwell you would have suffered only a small level stakes loss of £4.34.

10. Follow George Baker.
George Baker is the best judge of pace on the British all weather tracks.he is an artist when at the top of his game,so look out for him on all the Polytrack courses but particularly at Lingfield,where his profit/loss figure in the last five seasons is + £112.58.

11. Keep William Jarvis – trained runners having first starts in all weather handicaps staged over 1m or shorter onside.
Look out for his runners when he pitches them into an all weather handicap for the first time. Jarvis’s record with all weather handicap debutants in races staged at 1m or shorter is eight winners from 56 winners ( 14 per cent strike rate ),and they usually start at decent prices,highlighted by the huge profit – loss figure of £62.50 to a £1 level stake.

12. Look out for rejuvenated Godolphin cast-offs.
Capricorn Run and Atlantic Story were two of the top horses on the all weather last season,Capricorn Run won five times for Alan McCabe while Atlantic Story matched that total for Mick Easterby.

The two things that Capricorn Run and Atlantic Story have in common is that they have American pedigrees,suggesting that they would appreciate a consistent surface,and they started their careers racing for Godolphin but,having failed to make the grade,were bought cheaply at the Horses in Training Sales.

It’s likely that Polytrack played a pivotal role in their rejuvenation,as it’s such a forgiving surface that gives horses who may have been plagued by physical problems in the past the confidence to let themselves down on it.

13. Follow Pat Cosgrave especially at Southwell
It’s always good to latch onto a jockey whose career is on an upward curve,and Pat Cosgrave enjoyed his finest hour in August when steering Borderlescott to victory in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at Newmarket. Cosgrave was champion apprentice in Ireland in 2003, and the fact that he has ridden 39 times for Luca Cumani in 2008 is an indication that his stock is rising in Britain.

Having put in the hard yards on the all weather in recent seasons,he has built up a broad base of contacts that should keep the winners flowing during the winter. It’s testament to Cosgraves consistency that he’s been able to operate at a strike rate of 27% at Southwell in 2008,and following him blind at the venue would have yielded a level stake profit of £34.16.

14. Expect in running carnage at Lingfield.
The final furlong at Lingfield has been described by my colleague Matt Williams,who knows a lot more about in running betting than me,as the longest furlong in racing. The tracks configuration,with it’s tight bends and short home straight lends itself to exciting racing and it’s common to see the entire field covered by only a few lengths on the final bend. It’s equally common to see the lead change hand several times inside the final furlong,so plenty of shorties get chinned in running,as often it’s those that are played late who gain the upper hand.

15. Give greater respect to the form of claimers and sellers.
All weather claimers are notoriously poor fare,but in the current economic climate where disappointing results are being achieved at the sales,it’s possible that more trainers may look to claimers and sellers as a way of achieving a fair price for horses they wish to pass on. Richard Hannon’s shrewd handling of filly Rebecca De Winter illustrates this point.

Hannon put the 86 rated two year old into Tattersalls Horses in Training sale at Newmarket on October 28th,but she failed to fetch the money he was looking for so he bought her in for 6,500 gns.

He entered her in a Lingfield claimer on Thursday with a price tag of only £10,000,which meant she was able to run off 8st 6lb and according to Racing Post Ratings was 5lb clear of her highest rated rival. She took advantage of what looked like a penalty kick with a stylish success under Richard Hughes to scoop the prize money of £2,279 for Hannon,and she was claimed,so the trainer walked away with a tidy profit.

16. The importance of race position and the draw.
The draw can be important at all the all weather tracks,although it should always be considered in tandem with horse’s running styles. Obviously,if a front runner is parked out wide it’s a potential negative,but if a hold up horse has an outside berth it probably wont make much difference to his chance. So with horses who like to race prominently,look for low draws at Lingfield,Southwell,Wolverhampton,Great Lieghs and Dundalk,while at the right handed Kempton a high draw helps horses with early speed take a handy pitch.

17. Look for horses who hold a definite class edge in their division.
It’s important to remember that the size of the population of horse who race on the all weather over the winter is relatively small, and in the classier races the same horses keep bumping into each other. So when a progressive horse who is a class above his rivals emerges,he does very well.

A recent example is Areyoutalkingtome. The competion couldn’t live with him over sprint distances on the all weather two seasons ago. He won six races in a row at Lingfield between 5f and 7f from October 2006 to February 2007,and the only time he was beaten on the all weather during that period was when he failed to stay 1m1/2f at Wolverhampton.

18. Follow Neil Callan.
Neil Callan has great stats in close finishes on the all weather. He rarely gets horses beat by going to fast,so when he is up on the front end,the front runners are probably running at a pace that they are comfortable with.

19. Respect Italian raiders.
Italy has all weather racing at Capanelle and several Italian trainers have made successful raids on all weather races in Britain. The most recent was Salvatore Santella whose Il Grande Maurizio won a handicap off 95 at 16/1 last month at Kempton.

20. Find the fastest horse in Southwell sprints.
It may sound obvious to find the fastest horse in a sprint,but Southwell sprints are invariably dominated by those who possess early speed,as it’s very difficult to play catch up in Fibresand sprints.

Some of these pointers are superb and all are totally relevant. Following the jocks mentioned is very important especially George baker as he really is the master at this game.

On The draw…. all the tracks have there pros and cons but it is important to have a jockey with brain that understands how to take advantage of a good draw.

A few pointers note about draw and conditions:

All tracks….try and avoid betting in the first 2 races! Going is described as Standard or sometimes fast but there are about 5 levels of standard!!!!

Lingfield for example has recently seen the Front runners being done by the finishers late on, however the sudden drop in temperature has seen track conditions change in favour of the front runner with the right fractions. So whilst it is cold you want low draws in anything under a mile, and look for a horse that like to make or be up with the pace (important at many of the tracks)

Southwell….. Low draws and up with the pace. As the post says, how often do you see a horse swoop later and make up 10 lengths in the last 2 furlongs….never! 5 Furlong and a low draw is an absolute must and for place potters that do perms stick the 1 draw in regardless of the horses form, and take faves on no matter how short with double digit draws.

Kempton…. Only right handed track, so we want high numbers here and in the sprints a front runner would be handy too drawn high. But also look for horses that travel well that finish strongly as we see many come from way off the pace here to win, and our man George Baker does it better than anyone. For in running players, keep an eye on Hayley Turner on hold up horses racing on the outer course here and note the progression she often makes when they reach the intersection, often you will see horses come from last to lead in half a furlong by dashing up the rail, now often they don’t hang on but in running you can trade in at say 15-20 and out seconds later at 2s.

Wolves…. generally low draws an advantage, but also look for jockeys that have good + figures on the £ at the track as the ones with the – £ all try and win down the rail….watch the finishers, they come down the middle of the track

Great Leighs….. again check the stats as some jocks much better here than others as it seems to pay to come down the middle in the straight as per Wolves (Dettori aint worked this out yet lol). 5/6F Low draw almost essential…note how many races the 2 drawn widest are non runners! The Mile has a negative against the middle draws so look for a pace horse drawn high or low not just low as the ATR idiots go on about, and again pace very important here as more often than not races are won from the front or thos right up with the pace.

Look at times…very important
Look at times v distance as well. I could not believe I got to back Ivory Silk last time out at 24s on Betfair, A reproduction of his last 6F run over 5F would see him win from the front and win well…. Result 1st 6/1 in a new track record

Finally just look.. you can study the form book all day long but there is no substitute for watching a race over and over again. Watch a 5 furlong sprint 20 times and watch each indiviual runner for the whole race then note the non triers, the hard luck stories and the utter dogs and bring this info into the equation for their next runs….anyone got any draw bias’ DUNDALK????

August started will a corrupted website database and ended with

• A total revamp of the website and forum software
• A subscription to Raceform Interactive
• The creation of my own ratings
• Improvements to the odds compilation process
• An updated strategy

Over the last few weeks I have worked extremely hard seeking marginal gains and improvement in my handicapping process. The benefit is that I now have heightened confidence in my methods and approach.

The All Weather season kicks off in September and I will be taking a trip to Dundalk Ireland for their  meeting on the 5th September. From this point onwards I will be tracking my progress in the results page

Stand by for Translunar Injection!

It’s easy to ridicule the behaviour of betting shop punters, labelling them “mugs”, but this hive mentality is to be expected when so many in the racing media use the words “steamer” and “drifter” as short-hand for “certain winner” or “certain loser”. It’s become instinctive to view a shortening price as evidence of a well-planned betting coup-in-waiting, and to view a lengthening price as evidence of a horse that won’t be winning today.

And yet few pause to consider why, if this is the case, Willbrokes are so keen to announce these steamers and drifters over their in-shop tannoys. Surely, were the perception grounded in fact, they would do all they could to disguise such betting moves?

h/t: Jack Houghton betting@betfair

I chose the latter in the purchase of Raceform Interactive.

After a number failed attempts at installing the software (firewall issues) and getting my head around the various screens that look antiquated from my trained eye, I have five years of flat data to work with when compiling my ratings. Definitely a statistical significant dataset, I gave it a trial run today.

So, all of the donkey work is taken out of the process in a pseudo SQL query which  spits out the the dataset I require ready for import into Excel. The aim now is to trial the ratings and software thru August in preparation for the start of the All Weather season in September.

Raceform Interactive is considered to be the tool of the discerning racing professional. After playing with it for a while I can see why although you do need to know the rough answer to your question before using it if you are not to violate the following computer idiom

Garbage In equals Garbage Out

As I’ve written many a time, I’m like a moth to a flame in these bookie sponsored, impossible to fathom, 28 runner sprint handicaps.

The Stewards Cup has been run since the 1840 therefore there are plenty of facts and numbers for us stat heads to analyse. After crunching the numbers facts, my ratings  and figures I arrived at the following tissue for the race (18/1 bar).

The most over analysed (and some might say hyped) factor in this race is the draw. Along with the ground under normal circumstances this is the case. In spring handicaps it can come down to inches at the finish therefore we punters need to determine which horses have the assistance of any draw bias before the race and adjust our thinking accordingly.

However on straight courses, I am one that subscribes to the notion that the pace within the pace and the course pace bias dictates which side of the course has the advantage. Often I have listened to reporters who predict which side has the advantage based on the outcome a race ran under similar conditions earlier on the card which totally ignore the pace dynamics of the current race in question. They then go onto ruminate when a runner from the un-fancied side of the draw wins. Unfortunately Jockies make the same mistake and sometimes their perception of ground conditions and draw bias can ruin your well planned assult on the bookmaker.

Anyway, back to the subject at hand. The weight of historical evidence suggests that you need to be drawn high to win the Stewards Cup. In today’s race the majority of the pace within the race is drawn low so I’ll nail my colours to the mast and state that the low draw numbers should run better than expected as a consequence of today’s pace dynamic.

Previous renewals of this race suggest that the winner was “held up” for a late challenge. However in yesterdays consolidation race I noted that early speed held off any pace pressure from those behind (“speed carries” as the Americans would say). This matches my pace bias figures for this distance and I will err on the side of runners that like to run prominently.

Shortlisted (no surprises)

Jonny Mudball: Can’t help thinking that he recent win at Newcastle was aided by a massive draw bias. However has speed to burn and could be a group horse in handicap company.

Striking Spirit: Wokingham 2nd from draw biased stall. Low’ish draw today.

Genki: Last year’s winner, 6yo’s have a poor’ish record in this race.

Rileyskeepingfaith: Biggest problem, drawn in stall 15 right down the middle of the track. Dammed if he does dammed if he does not.

Palace Moon: Wokingham 3rd. Player with Mr Fallon on board.

Noverre To Go: 7th in the Wokingham, contender from a high draw

Bet

Noverre To Go and Jonny Mudball @ 8/1 or better,  Striking Spirit @ 11/1 or better

Result (= Gutted)

How did the cycling team win eight gold medals?
The explanation used by the cycling performance director, Dave Brailsford, was that it was achieved through the “aggregation of marginal gains”. By looking for a 1% gain at everything they do, from mechanics upwards, they pulled together a whole series of small gains that enabled their athletes to dominate their sport.

I have used the quote before in a previous blog posting when I recognised I needed to review all aspects of my betting to seek improvements and achieve consistency.

When handicapping a race, I currently utilse objective measures or benchmarks for pace and speed ratings to evaluate each horse. Some ratings I have developed myself (pace) some created by other sources. Although profitable my approach still lacks consistency and unfortunately takes time to evaluate each race.

It’s no secret that I utlise ratings from the Racing Post. Yes there are various forum’s that slag off their inaccuracies and tweaks (back fitting) to make the hot favourite top of their ratings but all in all for the price they are good value providing *cough* “consistent” ratings covering National Hunt and Flat Racing every day of the week. However you cant get around that fact that there’s always room for improvement so I have decided to take the matter into my own hands.

A rating is the evaluation or assessment of something, in terms of quality (as with a critic rating a novel), quantity (as with an athlete being rated by his or her statistics), or some combination of both.

I guess it was Mark Coton (“Value Betting”) and Clive Holt (“Be A Successful Punter”) who were the first to apply their own race ratings as the foundation of their betting in allocating a score against certain factors such as ground, distance, jockey, trainer form etc etc and when totaled create an objective assessment of each horse. Since those early days, ratings have developed into sophisticated computer algorithms by the best brains money can buy.

Although I have Software Engineering and Computer Science qualifications I am not about to attempt to create my own computer program. I don’t have the time or inclination so like most of my handicapping, my inspiration for my ratings comes from the Americans who like to establish objective measures or “par” standards for speed, class and pace ratings.

My rating par scores are established using statistical techniques. Then  each horse is matched against these standards to create a rating and subsequently a relative ranking between contestants.

I have stated to create ratings for All Weather racing and now I have a statistically significant data set, for races at Bath racecourse as well. So far the ratings are performing as per all ratings in that the top rated horse has a poor strike rate. However the top 4 rated horses are producing some amazing results!

Thursday July 22 2010 – Bath 17:10

Titus Gent 63
Bateleur 60
The Name Is Frank 59
Witchry 57
Mandhooma 57
Emiratesdotcom 49
Talamahana 48
Wooden King 46
Blushing Maid 44
Dynamo Dave 39
Like For Like 38

If the ratings are proven during their trail period, the strategy is to let the them sought out the wheat from the chaff in the initial phases of the process. This should allow me time to focus my handicapping on the main contenders and time to analyse more races,  identifying value and construct profitable bets such as exacta, trifecta, placepot perms and spread bets … … …  in theory!

To close I’ll modify one of Nick Mordins quotes

Ratings are like vampires, once you bring them out into the daylight they wither and die

h/t: Zero Hedge

What separates the 10% that make money from the 90% that don’t?

10,000 hours.

In his recent book ‘Outliers’ Malcolm Gladwell describes the 10,000-Hour Rule, claiming that the key to success in any cognitively complex field is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing a specific task for a total of around 10,000 hours. 10,000 hours equates to around 4hrs a day for 10 years. For some reason most people that ‘try their hand’ at trading view it as a get rich quick scheme. That in a very short space of time, they will be able to turn $500 into $1 million! It is precisely this mindset that has resulted in the current economic mess, a bunch of 20-somethings being handed the red phone for financial weapons of mass destruction. The greatest traders understand that trading much like being a doctor, engineer or any other focused and technical endeavor requires time to develop and hone the skill set. Now you wouldn’t see a doctor performing open heart surgery after 3 months on a surgery simulator. Why would trading as a technical undertaking require less time?

Trading success, comes from screen time and experience, you have to put the hours in!

Education, education, education.

The old cliché touted by politicians when they can’t think of anything clever to say to their audience. The importance of education to success in trading cannot be placed on a high enough pedestal. You have to learn to earn, the best traders work obsessively to refine their edge further to stay ahead of the curve.

Think for yourself.

“NO! NO! NO!”… “Bear Stearns is not in trouble”…”Don’t move your money from Bear! That’s just silly! Don’t be silly!”

A quote from well known stock guru Jim Cramer aired on CNBC days before Bear Stearns lost 90% of its value. Many followed this call and felt the obvious pain as a result. As the old saying goes, “too many cooks spoil the broth” it is very much the same in trading. Successful traders blinker themselves from the opinions of others; they focus on their own analysis of fundamental and technical information.

Adapt or Die.

Market conditions change and technology advances, thus the conditions for trading are always evolving, the rise in mechanical trading is testament to that. The very best traders through a process of education and adaptation are constantly staying ahead of the curve and creating ever new and ingenious methods to profit from the markets evolution.

Fail to plan, you plan to fail.

The best traders have a well documented plan; they know exactly what they are looking for and follow that plan to the letter. Their preparation for a trade starts long before the market open, it is this meticulous planning and importantly adherence to that plan that helps them avoid the biggest demons for any trader, over trading and revenge trading.

“Be like Machine”

As human beings emotions pay a key role in our existence, for a trader emotions can be a source of great pain. Trading psychology and the management of your emotions in a trade play a key role in overall success. Fear and greed can cut your winners short and let your losers run. Dealing with emotions follows on from your plan; the more robust your plan the less likely you are to fall into the emotional mine field.

Know your tools

Every trader has a set of tools they use, DOM, Charts, News feeds etc. These tools are a traders bread and butter; they are the most vital part of a traders arsenal, without which it would be impossible to trade. The best traders have mastered their order entry methodology, they know all about the features they need from their charts. This mastery of their tools, allows the trader to get the very best out of the resources they have available to them and ensures perfect execution of their trading ideas.

Know Thyself

Behind all the egos and excess, the best traders know their limitations; they focus on what can go wrong in a trade, and expend a lot of energy in limiting and controlling their risk before thinking about profits. They have a heightened sense of self-awareness and focus on incremental self improvement.

Profit & Loss

The best traders focus on the trade itself rather than the P&L; they view each trade as a technical exercise and focus on getting the most out of the market in accordance with their plan. They do not think in terms of the grocery payment, the electric bill and the desire to make X amount to cover a mortgage payment. Focusing on the money behind a trade can cloud technical objectivity.

In Conclusion

The greatest traders work hard to get ahead and even harder to stay ahead. Through increased and niche knowledge they constantly adapt with the market and remain profitable in every environment. Drive, tenacity and the will to succeed is the greatest edge of every successful trader.

What I will say now is spread betting is not for the faint hearted. Not because most spread betting companies plaster warnings across their web sites indicating that this form of betting can be dangerous to your wallet.

No, it’s also the knowledge required to understand how the various markets are formed and determining techniques to find an edge that’s difficult and beyond most punters. Not that I am being snobbish, it’s just the way it is in this form of gambling.

Where to start? Well, real information (not top level stuff) on the mechanics of spread betting is scarce, which in some respects is good as it limits the knowledge to those higher up in the food chain that are prepared to put the work in to become successful verses those that are not. Think big fish eating little fish in the big pond that is the market and you get my drift.

Fortunately, I am in possession of Alan Potts book “The Inside Track” which upon reflection has an excellent section on spread betting. Dave Nevison’s book “A Bloody Good Winner” mentions spread betting in places and is on my list for a re-read.

I also came across spreadbettingwizard in a web search which in my view provides excellent advice for the novice and techniques to get you started. Many thanks to Billy who took the time to walk me though his thoughts on the subject.

Ultimately I shall work toward proficiency in the Racing Post Favourites spread.

In my view the Racing Post has a disproportionate influence in horse racing given the fact that the pages of this paper are plastered on the walls of every book maker and read at the morning coffee tables by mugs, enthusiastic amateurs and professionals alike.

Common sense dictates that you cannot outsmart the public if you are handicapping with the same information and methods as the public

As touted by many American handicapping authors the name of the game in horse racing is to beat the favourite.

Under normal circumstances the jolly is the selection of the crowd who is the best handicapper on the planet. However, the Racing Post favourite is chosen by a very knowledgeable subset i.e. the Racing Post handicappers and odds compliers who like us all sometimes make mistakes. By focusing on this market my objective is to handicap the handicappers and the market makers i.e. Sporting Index and not the crowd.

Also a subtle but important point is my perceived edge over this subset. “in theory” I can tilt the odds in my favour in pitting specialist knowledge in All Weather racing against those that I suspect are generalists who, as mentioned above heavily influence the betting decisions of thousands of punters across the land.

if you want to make money … big money … do what nobody else is doing

The other advantage of the Racing Post Favourites Index is that the favourite is named before the race starts by virtue of the Racing Post Betting forecast which is published online at 7.30 pm the evening before the race. As they say, the name of game is to beat the favourite so I can devote significant time pre race finding false or vulnerable fav’s in isolation to market changes on the day of the race.

However Rome was not built in a day so to cut my teeth, I’ll dip my toe into the Race Index spread as it allows you to play bookmaker and provides attractive rewards for backing horses that make the frame (see below)

Given the makeup of both markets i.e. points allocated for coming 1st, 2nd or 3rd you do require a method to allow you to determine the probability of horse placing in the frame as well as winning.

After burning a lot of midnight oil in studying the various methods (and maths), I have now modified my tissue spreadsheet to automate this task.

For those that are interesting google “Harville Formulae” and note that what may seem an intuitive solution to the problem of calculating place probabilities in academia is quite different when applied to the real world. Its way beyond my maths skills however , based on advice from American handicapping literature I can derive a close approximation in the spreadsheet using simple and easier to understand logic.

Once each race is handicapped and prices calculated for each runner, I can form my own market and match this against the various spread betting firms to determine where the value is, BUY or SELL.

For example in today’s 3:40 at York I create a 100% tissue based on the current order of the market.

Obviously there is no edge as my tissue is the same order as the market. From a “value” perspective you can also see there is no edge by looking at the “% bank” column which uses the Kelly criterion in its calculation.

As this is a 12 runner race compare the 50-25-10 spread column with the race indices from Sporting Index

Again no edge, hmmmm maybe I’m onto something.

Note also the Betfair place odds of Moon Indigo below. BTW: my place book approximation in the spreadsheet correlates well with the Betfair market so an extra brownie point for me!

The following examples outline the up’s and down’s of spread betting.

The spread for Moon Indigo is Sell 4, Buy 6.

If you think he has a good chance of placing 2nd or 3rd on Betfair you get 7/1 or loss of stake if unplaced.

On SportingIndex If you bought Moon Indigo at 6 your return is 19/1; 25 points for 2nd minus 6 points = 19 which is multiplied by your stake to determine your actual payout. Happy days!

You would win 4 times your stake if Moon Indigo placed 3rd. The down side bit of the equation is Moon Indigo unplaced loses you 6 times your stake. Ouch!

If you wanted to oppose Moon indigo making the frame, on Betfair you would lay him at 9/1. If he subsequently placed you would lose 9 times your stake.

On SportingIndex if did the equivalent and sold at 4, Moon Indigo unplaced would net you 4 times your stake (4 – 0 points). A 3rd place costs you 6 times your stake, a 2nd place costs you 21 times your stake. Unfortunately, if Moon Indigo for some reason won the race, in selling at 4 points you would lose 46 times your stake; 4 minus 50 points for the win. Ouch to infinity and beyond!

Hence the need to paper trade spread betting and this market for a while to get a feel for its makeup and then move onto Racing Post Favourites if confidence builds and my tools prove reliable. I shall also get on the phone to Mr X who can refer me to Sporting Index to take advantage of their free bets for fresh fish.

Following the herd is fine until they all run off the side of a cliff together.

We never learn. Every two years we English forget past failures and rally behind our football team in the hope that this time we’ll repeat the success of 66. We never learn do we!

Unfortunately the same mass hysteria applies to short priced favourites and horses that are backed off the boards. Why do we all pile into the so called “good thing” and curse our decision when it gets turned over and the bookies count their cash with a wry smile.

When everybody thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong
The Art of Contrarian Thinking – Humphrey B. Neill

Take it from me, when betting you need to part with your emotions and bet systematically to a process or structure.

To do otherwise is equivalent to one who wears glasses driving without corrective lenses. It can be done but things can get blurry and once in a while you might crash.

It is not uncommon for punters to get unto a flap when a horse drifts. They begin to imagine all manner of horror stories, largely circulating around the prospect that their horse will not be doing its best. During our earlier form study we have already satisfied ourselves that we are on a trier, so there is no need for us to panic.

One Hundred Hints for Better Betting – Mark Cotton

Below is a good example of why you should bet once the crowd has had their say and let your tissue determine your final decision. My analysis of the race

Tissue

5/1 Regeneration, 11/2 Cape Rock, 13/2 Mishrif, 7/1 Clockmaker, 9/1 Quasi Congaree, 10/1 Totally Focussed

Analysis

Eddie Freemantle summed up Clockmaker’s recent race in post race comments on RacingUK; the form in the race (class 5 maiden) is nothing to get carried away with. A beaten favourite first time in handicap gets another black mark from me.

Concerns about Mishrif in respect to class and stamina doubts about Quasi Congaree leaves the front two in the tissue.

Non runners have changed the complexity of the race (and draw positions). As the main contenders that like to run up with the pace are drawn out wide, I’ve altered the tissue to reflect the fact that life is more difficult. I’ll watch the race to see what transpires but its looking like no value = not bet.

Market

Result