Those of you who have been following my ratings have noted a steady improvement in their accuracy, although I am still not satisfied.

For a while now I have been trying to get my head around William Benter’s seminal paper “Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems” (Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets) where he outlines a practical and successful computerised horse race handicapping and wagering system he developed. I’m not a mathematician or statistician so I needed to develop a basic understanding of these skills to develop my own version of his model; hence another reason for not blogging recently.

One major area of discontent with my model was the accuracy of the final rating and how it translated to winning probabilities. This is function of the limited factors I was using in my model and as such I had many failed attempts at creating a semi accurate betting forecast which also factored in the favourite longshot bias. The majority of computer generated tissues do not take account of this bias and in my mind fundamentally flawed.

In addition, the other area of contention was that even with most sophisticated model on the planet, I could not hope to include all handicapping factors into the model that out performed the crowd’s powers of prediction thus

The chart is old however you can create a modern day version if you take horse racing results over a significant period and create a scatter plot of observed proportion of races won by horses verses the probability implied by their betting odds. You will see that the “fit” is remarkable; an R squared of around 0.98. What does this chart mean to non stats junkies?

The Public Is Very Good At What It Does
Not only can the public tell the difference between two low odds horses say a horse that should be even money (1/1) versus a horse that should be say 2/1 we might be able to do that at a decent level, but it can tell the difference between high odds horses say a horse that should be 20-1 versus a horse that should be 25/1.

Now how do you do that? They are indistinguishable in the form yet the public can separate them in the long run. The horse that is 20-1 will win more than the horse that is 25-1.

If you are not convinced by the predictive powers of the crowd take a moment to watch this video.

Benter recognised the public’s implied probability estimates generally correspond well with the actual frequencies of winning. He realised that what was needed in his model was a way to combine the judgements of two experts, (i.e. the fundamental model and the public).

After thinking and modelling different approaches to absorb pre- race market opinion into my own model, I have decided to implement one from today and try it out over an expended period of time using real races. I have the old model to revert to if everything goes Pete Tong, although my gut feel tells me that I must embark on a modification of the current model to increase its accuracy.

Southwell is the black sheep of all the All Weather venues in that it has one major difference, the fibresand surface

As fibresand is a mixture of sand and wispy fibres it is sometimes referred to as “spube”, this being derived from the “s” of sand and the resemblance of a kind of human hair.

The racing is also of significance. The now unique fibresand racing surface is quite deep and so makes the track a good stamina test. Ability to stay the distance and fitness are therefore big advantages at Southwell..

In respect to punting pointers, I had already outlined a few in a previous blog post based on a course visit a while ago. Using the power of Proform Professional I’ll include additional context to this blog entry.

Let’s begin with the most prevalent punting factor at Southwell; pace. When pundits hark on about the fact that Southwell is a pace oriented course, here’s why:

As inferred from the stats, up to 8 furlongs horses that like to run prominently (“L”) have a distinct advantage over their “hold up” counter parts. Once you are out in front at Southwell, the “deep” fibresand surface does not allow you to easily peg any advantage gained from being fast out of the traps. To replicate the effect, next time you are on a beach, offer to run against an opponent of lesser ability over 100 meters, but give them a 5 meter head start.

From a punting perspective a multitude of betting options are on offer using this one factor alone; for example laying the favourite based on its running preference.

In respect to draw stats, like most oval course configurations the closer you are to the inside, trigonometry suggest the less distance that has to be run and therefore the greater advantage a horse has if it’s close to the rail. However watch out for stall 1.

Although counter intuitive to my above statement, there’s something in the manner how the rail rides and at certain times of the year rendering stall 1 a “coffin” box.

There are a number of reasons why this is the case which I won’t regurgitate. Hopefully in the next few months I’ll get the definitive reason from the friendly bunch that is the Southwell regulars at my next course visit.

Simply, the inner rail (and outer over 5 furlongs) rides deeper than other parts of the track which saps the stamina of horses who due to their berth at the off, try to hold their inside position prior to the first turn.

So, rock … meet hard place because if you are in stall 1 in one turn races at Southwell and run prominently you are done for, miss the break and you are done for plus sucking in kickback off the hoofs of the horses in front of you for added measure.

5 furlongs sprints at Southwell also presents a different puzzle for punters. Firstly it’s unique in that the race is on a straight track where at Lingfield, Kempton, Wolverhampton and Dundalk have at least one turn over 5 furlong sprints. Secondly dependant on the number of runners the rails are positioned either “inner” or “outer” which renders all form book 5f Southwell draw stats meaningless.

The trick for 5 furlong races is to first determine stall position and note the pace horses whose stall position is aligned toward the middle of the track and dependant on number of runners in the race be cautious of horses drawn toward the rail either side of the track.

Another tip I picked up from reading Nick Mordins book (Betting For a Living) is to side with horses that have a “straight course” form pattern in their past performances.

Finally horses that favour fibresand are a subset within a subset that perform well on All Weather surfaces, sires to consider at Southwell are:

In summary Southwell uniqueness suggests that discerning punters who wish to dabble in All Weather races should go prospecting at Southwell. There’s gold in them thar fibresand.

Mr X, an old work colleague and I are attending the final meeting of 2011 at Bath. Obviously bets a plenty as we all like a punt

During the preparation of my battle plan, noticed some interesting insights from the blokes at Sporting Index.

STOP ON WINNER: SELL 39 – 42 BUY
Suggests the first 3 favourites are vulnerable but the jolly in the 4th looks nailed on. A possible angle might be to BUY then look to bail out when the spread is adjusted in the 15:05

Settled @ 20

DISTANCES (F): SELL 11.5 – 12.5 BUY
My calculations suggest much tighter margins between first and second over the 8 races today. SELL

Settled @ 10

DANE O NEILL(7) SELL 31 – 34 BUY
SILVESTRE DE SOUSA (6) SELL 31 – 34 BUY
With 25 points for a win and 10 points for 2nd suggests that the spread Tefal heads don’t expect the mounts ridden by these jocks to do well. I have factored this into my decision making process.

Dane O Neill (7) Index Settled @ 45
Silvestre De Sousa (6) Index Settled @ 50

Ratings

13:30

1st Carinya (IRE) 4/1jf

14:00

1st El Dececy (USA) 9/2fav

15:05

1st Hidden Valley 8/1

16:10

1st Blazing Field 8/1

16:40

1st Tegan 4/1

17:15

For those who are betting in this race we salute you!

1st Seeking Magic 11/4fav

Dundalk was only opened in August 2007 and therefore the normal course related stats and facts are yet to be established. This presents a problem for punters who follow course trends and an opportunity for those of us who are focusing our attention into unearthing what the future trends will be.

In fact, Dundalk flies under the radar of most punters and racing journalists hence my partner in crime and I take regular trips to the emerald isle to monitor profitable patterns not in the public domain and while we are there, have a bloody good crack at the same time!

Our next trip is on the 30th September and very much looking forward to the Diamond Stakes.

If you put yourself through some metal gymnastics, Dundalk’s course layout is similar to Wolverhampton’s i.e. flat as a billiard table and tight bends.

Running the numbers via Proform Professional, although the data is limited, the patterns I outlined in my post on Wolverhampton follow similar trends so I will only highlight the key statistics:

Apply the pareto principle suggests that winners are distributed among a limited set of trainers and jockeys

The Dundalk pace bias indicates that you need an “up with the pace” running style (L = Led, P = prominent) for distances up to 8 furlongs and I have confirmed this in numerous on/off course observations.

You would think given the long straights, horses coming off the pace would have enough time to catch the front runners, however the polytrack surface at Dundalk rides like the fibresand surface at Southwell; once you get out in front, it’s hard to be reigned back. Only time will tell whether the bias toward pace horses prevails.

Combine this with a low stall berth, the punting pointers for Dundalk are for the moment, simple

• Favour horses drawn low
• Favour horses that like to run up with the pace
• Races at Dundalk are won by limited set of trainers and jockeys.

Up until I discovered Dundalk in Ireland, Wolverhampton held a special place in my punting heart as I always found betting there easy and as a consequence the first All Weather course I visited when I decided to specialise in All Weather racing.

A description of the facilities can be found here and like all the other All Weather venues, punters are well treated with fantastic facilities.

The course can be considered “flat” and “tight” and as we shall see later, the latter characteristic plays a significant part in the draw bias at Wolverhampton. The stats below are for 3yo handicaps under 8 furlongs

If we break down the horses breeding by country (as you would assume), GB and Irish horses top the winners list. You often hear pundits suggest that you should side with USA bred horses on the All Weather due to their “Dirt Pedigree”, on this occasion they are on the right side of the stats. Surprisingly French bred horses also win more than their fair share of races.

This table just reinforces the handicapping fact that like turf racing, the younger horses are favoured.

The weaker sexes seem to be disadvantaged on this and as we shall see in later posts other All Weather venues. Although I am yet to be convinced as I have punted many a filly home however, I do consider the sex of the horse in my handicapping process.

No surprises here as every book on handicapping suggests you should focus your attention on the horses at the top of the weights.

The same comments apply to the starting prices and why it pays to let the market speak first before making a bet. The stats indicate that if you focus your attention on the top 5 in the market just before the race, the majority of the time you will find the winner.

The pace  statistic suggests that in races below 8 furlongs with those that like to be close to the lead from the gate are typically there or thereabouts at the wire. However to understand the pace dynamics at Wolverhampton, you really need to treat each distance differently per the next table

What we now see is that over 5f, you need to side with the “early” horses, over 8f as so often happens the early horses get shot down in the final furlong by the “other than early” hold up horses. 6f and 7f are the most difficult races to read in respect to their biases. I have to admit that I have yet to see a horse “make all” over 6f and my own observations suggest that stall position is the key factor over this distance. Over 7 furlongs I have seen horses win from gate to wire and win coming off the pace.

Typically in the winter months the polytrack surface will ride “deep” as a consequence of harrowing to remove frost. Doubtful stayers at any distance get found out. A wet surface due to rain causes surface compaction which results in the opposite effect.

In summary, it does pay to review previous races to determine the current pace bias of the day and also the pace within the race to try and anticipate how the race will unfold.

Ideally the draw statistics should be broken down by distance, but suffice to say that given the tightness of the bends at Wolverhampton, horses drawn low hold a distinct advantage

Wolverhampton Punting Pointers

• The winner is typically top 5 in the weights and starting prices
• Side with Geldings and Colts
• A low draw is a distinct advantage
• Over 5 furlongs,  horses with a “held up” pace profile are “lay” candidates.
• Betting horses bred in IRE, USA and FRA are more profitable in the long run than horses bred in GB
• Focus your attention on horses aged 5 years old or less.

Data Source: Proform Professional

My review determined that I had taken my eye off the ball when pace handicapping.

It was Nick Mordin the author of “Betting For a Living” who introduced me to pace analysis and its importance in determining not how fast a horse runs but how it runs fast!

Reading William Quirin’s book “Winning At The Races – Computer Discoveries in Thoroughbred Handicapping” further enlightened me to this subject and the significance of early speed supported by his studies and various statistics.

As a re-education exercise I re-read the relevant chapters in Quirin’s book and re-created a version of his analysis for UK races (source data: Proform Professional)

The table above shows the level stakes profit when betting horses that like to lead “L”, horses that like to race prominently “P” and horses that like to race “held up” at the back of the pack “H”.

The data span’s Flat (All Weather, Turf) and National Hunt (Chase, Hurdle, NHF) races across all age groups, distances and courses in the United Kingdom and Ireland (from 1997 and 2009 respectively)

Let’s just say as a result of this review, I am spending the quiet time between All Weather races updating my statistical model to include this significant handicapping factor.

In recent years I was a fully paid up member of Bath Racecourse, which is a hop skip and a jump away from my front door. However per previous posts the venue just kept disappointing all of last year so decided relinquish my membership to pick and choose my attendance at Bath and switch my on course visits to All Weather venues instead.

This is my first visit this year and I was on the verge of not attending however there are a few class 4 races carded, the allure of some fit fillies (its ladies day) and ok’ish weather persuaded me to remove my eyeballs from my excel spreadsheet, get suited and booted and load up the wallet!

Bath 17:40

A tricky race first up which is unusual, typically the race planners like to get punters off to a win, then allow them to be fleeced by the on course bookies later in the card.

As I write this, I think we can oppose current market leader and veteran Barons Spy who seems a little high in the weights. Soap Wars holds and entry in the Ayr Gold Cup and should be watched in the market, Pick a little drops in grade, Restless Bay just can’t seem to get his head in front on turf but cannot be dismissed. Wooden King is outclassed along with Emiratesdotcom. Ebraam does most of his winning on the All Weather, but has put in some good turf efforts recently.

1st 2 Barons Spy (IRE) 13-2

Bath 19:10

Fillies races should always come with a government health warning but Picabo looks solid,  Comptonspirit looks high in the weights. Sharpened Edge is interesting from a pace angle as she’ll get and uncontested lead and maybe hard to peg back..

1st 2 Comptonspirit 5-1

Bath 19:40

Area Fifty One  looks solid in the company, beaten favourite Maher’s recent run was on the wrong ground so can be excused the poor performance. Pelham Crescent has previous here and might just surprise everyone at a big price. Huff And Puff should be watched very carefully in the market. Punted off the boards here earlier in the year, Amanda Perrett is currently on the cold trainers list. Brouhaha would be more of interest on the All Weather. Stranger Monster Munchie is another that should be watched in the market as his trainer is also on the cold list.

1st 7 One Lucky Lady 5-1

Bath 20:10

For those who are about to bet in this race … we salute you!

1st 8 Red Current 10-1

Winnings Distances @ Bath

Still in experimentation mode regarding my winning distances spread calculations. Will take a virtual interest at total lengths 6.92. Sporting Index quote SELL 10.4 – 11.4 BUY suggestion a virtual SELL

Settled @ 7:  3.4 points profit.

The table summarises the performance of favourites at each All Weather venue in different race classifications.

The A/E index indicates if a stat is value or not. An A/E index of 1.00 represents the stat is performing as expected, less than 1 and it is under performing and more than 1 and it is over performing.

So for example, Apprentice favourites at Kempton are slightly better value than the equivalent favourites at Lingfield. I have highlighted in red the lowest performing favourites in each category.

Notice anything?

Its a toss up between  Mac’s Power,  Colonel Mak,  Edinburgh Knight and Mon Cadeaux well drawn in stall 2. Will decide closer to the race (dependent on prices as always)

1st 1 Hoof It 13-2 JF