Though results have been positive, in review I was still backing (or bordering on backing) far too many underlays even though I added a 20% fudge factor to my fair odds prior to the race. It was time to hit the handicapping library to review the subject of expected value.

50% bonus is not the same of 50% edge!
Money Secrets at the Racetrack – Barry Meadows

For all things related to money management the book above is the “Bravo 2.0”, “The God Farther” and “The Bible” all rolled into one!

Barry suggests that your edge  i.e. your advanatge should be calculated in the following manner

(E) = Probability of Win x Odds – Probability of Loss

Having read the book may times he suggests that you strive to achieve a 50% edge before betting to take account of

  • The odds dropping after a bet, even if bets are made just before the race starts
  • The impact of our bet on the odds
  • Errors in our tissue compilation

No matter how good you get  – you will never be quite as accurate of the public’s betting forecast!

Until this point, I never was able to obtain 50% edge on my bets, the tissues didn’t feel right when compaired to the market! Unfortunately I had made the basic error of simply adding a 50% margin to whatever fair odds I calculated.

I STILL have a lot to learn

{Update 4th Sept} By way of an example adjusted the spread sheet from the race at Kempton yesterday (8.50) to take account of expect value.

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