There endith May which was probably my lightest betting month on record.

Since returning from my business trip in April, I have found it increasingly difficult to find the time to handicap.

Unfortunately I have been assigned a particularly difficult US customer that taxes my brain cells on a daily basis. Upon returning home from what seems to be ever increasing hours at work, the last thing I want to do is sit in front a computer again to handicap the next day’s cards.

So, like millions of punters up and down the land, I am resigned to betting at weekends and opportunistically during the week. Alas like other punters I will be forced to pit my handicapping wits on the most difficult races on Saturday. To this end I will no longer update the results section of the blog.

To offset the lack of financial involvement during the week, I’ll attempt to spend more time watching race replays and make notes of my observations for my virtual stable.

Who knows focusing and quality bets and opportunities may be a blessing in disguise.

Thanks to all who sent messages of support during my extended stay in the US due to the volcanic eruption in Iceland.

It’s nice to be home..

Now I have recovered from jet lag and addressed that pile of letters and emails that required responses, my centre of attention is now back onto horseracing and this blog.

As I mentioned on previous occasions my focus for the coming months will be All Weather racing, Bath Racecourse, turf races and distances where I perceive a pace/draw advantage and those all too difficult bookie sponsored heritage handicaps or big TV races.

Due to the ongoing situation with the volcanic eruption in Iceland my return to the UK from my business trip in the US has been delayed.

I am currently located in Fort Collins Colorado as a consequence of my decision Thursday to divert from Huntsville Alabama. Fortunately I have the benefit of local knowledge (I lived in Fort Collins for a few months years ago) and the support of my company’s local office and friends.

Who knows when I will return? Obviously horse racing will take a back seat until the dust settles. For me it could have been much worse.

Remarkably I moderated my drinking and feel full of beans this morning. Maybe I’m still drunk.

Anyway decided to take advantage of an early start and a non punting day (for me) to complete some web chores (updating the PHPBB forum software and WordPress plugins)

Strategy changes for 2010

• Pace Handicapping – In
• 500/1 system – Out
• Exotic’s (doubles, trebles, fourfolds) – In
• Virtual Stable – Out

If Muttley can be bothered I’ll take him for a walk in the sun and enjoy the rest of the day.

Just about recovered from jet lag after my business trip to Japan. My return coincided with the end of the month; here is a summary of my progress in July

Low lights

• ~ 6% strike rate! Benchmark performance is around 20% for long term success
• Still committing basic handicapping errors when analysing races. Therefore the content I’m using to create my tissue and final selections is proving the computing idiom “garbage in = garbage out”
• Spending too much time handicapping the handicappers and second guessing their work.
• The virtual stable has been performing poorly due to the fact that I am not putting in the effort to review races daily and note useful performances

Highlights

• +26 point profit! Ok, mainly due to a couple of big priced winners however they were backed at the maximum Kelly stake. A low strike rate but overall profit proves the theory of that punters’ should bet for value. We’ll see what next month brings!
• The process of creating the tissue is repeatable and provides a mathematically sound staking method.
• Specialising and understanding the idiosyncratic nature of Bath Racecourse is paying dividends

This month’s focus

• Eliminate basic handicapping errors
• Win bets only, ditch the Virtual Stable strategy for the moment.
• Selectivity, I can’t crush every race so focus on courses/distances where my pace data indicates an advantage.
• Trust the various ratings I am using and focus my efforts on the race conditions, pace handicapping and trying to determine contenders who are suited to the race.

Kempton’s meeting today brings to a close the winter All Weather season for 2008/2009 although there are plenty of fixtures on the synthetic surface to keep things ticking over until the end of the summer.

The emphasis until September is to build up my virtual stable throughout the flat turf season and specialise on races at Bath, a hop step and a jump away from my gaff!

If it were not for a fortuitous late bet on Sgt Schultz in the 4.15 who survived a tense photo finish and a nice touch on Abbondanza, in the 4.50 my wallet would have been very light leaving the course.

On the National Express coach journey home I had plenty of time to reflect on my day out.

Firstly, I am going to spend the extra dosh taking the train to race meetings from now on. The cost of the coach ticket is cheap,  especially when booked in advance however,  the journey to/from London takes ages and the coach seats are far too cramped for my 6ft 3ins 17 stone frame!

Secondly, my battles with Matsunosuke this winter demonstrate my major weakness in not keeping an open mind and being too fixated with one particular horse in the race.

The scientific name given by psychologists to this general behaviour when making decisions is “cognitive bias”.

Thirdly it was no coincidence that my wins yesterday were in handicap races. A sure indicator that I should stick to races I’m comfortable with

Advice suggests that you should take things in moderation. Just wish I had moderated my alcoholic intake during my birthday on Saturday after punting Hollow Jo to win at 8/1 and paid for my subsequent pub crawl in Bath!

Anyway coping with the work involved in sifting through every All Weather 3yo+ handicap up to 1mile everyday is proving to be taxing.

So instead of trying to bet in all these races, I shall seek to also find the best All Weather bet of the day from this subset.

In addition I shall turn my attention to All Weather Sellers, Claimers, Classified, 2yo and 3yo races however betting in these race types is on an opportunistic basis only.

Don’t know if it’s a good or bad omen for future punts; but I’ve moved a hop, skip and a jump away from Bath Racecourse which over recent seasons has been my arch nemesis.

In respect to the blog normal service resumes on Monday 5th, I will post my selection on the notepad. Per this time of year my betting resolutions are to

1. Focus exclusively on All Weather Racing through out the year and refine my handicapping approach in this code of racing.

2.  Refine my tissue compilation process

3.  Add Great Leighs and Dundalk All Weather Courses to my punting list

4. Specialise in races at Bath Racecourse (given that I will be walking the course on a regular basis)

Let’s hope for a profitable year 2009!

Due to personal circumstances I won’t be posting on the web site until Jan 2009.

No worries, its not anything serious, its just that I need to focus on some aspects of my life (a house sale, move to a new location and new responsibilities at work) between now and the new year which will require all my spare time..

Seasons greetings and see you all in Jan 2009.