HISTORY was made at Plumpton on Monday when Here’s The Key finished third in a novice hurdle to become the first horse in Britain to be returned at odds of 13-5. The price is among 11 new fractional odds with which punters and bookmakers will need to familiarise themselves after being sanctioned by the Starting Price Regulatory Commission.

Minor adjustment to a spreadsheet for me , major adjustment for punters!

1. Treat Southwell form in isolation.
Remember that Southwell form is the only all weather track that has a Fibresand surface and that it rides very differently to the Polytrack used at the other five all weather tracks in Britain and Ireland. Be wary of in form horses who are switching from Fibresand to Polytrack or vice versa,as they not be able to transfer their form.

2. Avoid debutants at Southwell.
Fibresand is a deeper surface with more kickback than Polytrack,which makes Southwell a hostile environment for in experienced horses,and it’s usually worth avoiding debutantes at the track. Since 2000,the strike rate of juvenile newcomers at Southwell is 5.5 per cent which is inferior to the 6.2 per cent at the Polytrack venues.

3. Follow Haafhd’s progeny on Polytrack.
When assessing the chances of experienced horses,it’s always worth taking a look at their breeding,as the progeny of certain sires seem to take to Polytrack or Fibresand better than others. It’s still early days for Polytrack,but one sire who is achieving remarkable results with his first crop on the surface is Haafhd. The record of his progeny on Polytrack in Britain and Ireland stands at 11 winners from 29 runners.

4. Follow Pivotal and Captain Rio’s offspring at Southwell
Pivotal used to be the top sire to follow at Southwell,but his blossoming stud career means that these days fewer of his offspring are handled by trainers who regularly send runners to the track. However,this season there will be plenty of trainers who like having runners at Southwell with Captain Rio’s progeny among their ranks,and he is rapidly becoming the new king of the Fibresand sires. The record of Captain Rio’s progeny at the track is ten winners from 40 runners ( 25 per cent,£47.38 profit to a £1 level stake ).

5. Importance of speed
Racing on synthetic surfaces places an emphasis on speed,whether the races are staged over 5f or 2m.It’s absolutely essential that you are able to travel well on the all weather.

6. Latch on to the top apprentices.
The all weather has been a fertile ground for some of the brighter young apprentices to showcase their talents,and promising riders who are good value for their claims are always in demand. The low grade handicaps that make up a seizable chunk of the racing are often loaded with exposed and closely matched horses,so booking a good apprentice can make a massive difference.

The key is to catch these hot apprentices early. This is highlighted by the fact Kirsty Milczarek’s all weather record from the start of September 2007 to the end of March 2008 was 49 winners from 268 rides ( 18.3 per cent strike rate ) and that £10 on each of these rides would have resulted in a £500 profit. The two to follow this season could be Frederick Tylicki and Andrea Atzeni.

7. Look out for horses who are likely to get soft leads in small fields.
Pace is one of the most important factors in all weather racing,so a good angle is to find horses who may get soft leads in small fields.

8. Make a note of free going sorts who run well in tactical middle distance/staying races.
Horses rarely win when they erode vital energy reserves by pulling to hard in the early stages,so horses who race keenly but still manage to finish in the first third of the field are definitely worth putting into the memory bank.

9. Follow Gary Moore.
Record in the last 5 seasons

Course w-r (%) p/l
Great Lieghs 7-23 (30) +20.25
Kempton 40-244 (16) + 4.34
Lingfield 89-641 (14) + 21.87
Wolves 18-83 (22) + 27.74
Southwell 10-52 (19) – 4.34

Gary Moore has sent out more than 1,000 runners on the all weather in the last five seasons,so it’s remarkable that you could have made a profit by backing his horses at each of the four Polytrack courses,while at Southwell you would have suffered only a small level stakes loss of £4.34.

10. Follow George Baker.
George Baker is the best judge of pace on the British all weather tracks.he is an artist when at the top of his game,so look out for him on all the Polytrack courses but particularly at Lingfield,where his profit/loss figure in the last five seasons is + £112.58.

11. Keep William Jarvis – trained runners having first starts in all weather handicaps staged over 1m or shorter onside.
Look out for his runners when he pitches them into an all weather handicap for the first time. Jarvis’s record with all weather handicap debutants in races staged at 1m or shorter is eight winners from 56 winners ( 14 per cent strike rate ),and they usually start at decent prices,highlighted by the huge profit – loss figure of £62.50 to a £1 level stake.

12. Look out for rejuvenated Godolphin cast-offs.
Capricorn Run and Atlantic Story were two of the top horses on the all weather last season,Capricorn Run won five times for Alan McCabe while Atlantic Story matched that total for Mick Easterby.

The two things that Capricorn Run and Atlantic Story have in common is that they have American pedigrees,suggesting that they would appreciate a consistent surface,and they started their careers racing for Godolphin but,having failed to make the grade,were bought cheaply at the Horses in Training Sales.

It’s likely that Polytrack played a pivotal role in their rejuvenation,as it’s such a forgiving surface that gives horses who may have been plagued by physical problems in the past the confidence to let themselves down on it.

13. Follow Pat Cosgrave especially at Southwell
It’s always good to latch onto a jockey whose career is on an upward curve,and Pat Cosgrave enjoyed his finest hour in August when steering Borderlescott to victory in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at Newmarket. Cosgrave was champion apprentice in Ireland in 2003, and the fact that he has ridden 39 times for Luca Cumani in 2008 is an indication that his stock is rising in Britain.

Having put in the hard yards on the all weather in recent seasons,he has built up a broad base of contacts that should keep the winners flowing during the winter. It’s testament to Cosgraves consistency that he’s been able to operate at a strike rate of 27% at Southwell in 2008,and following him blind at the venue would have yielded a level stake profit of £34.16.

14. Expect in running carnage at Lingfield.
The final furlong at Lingfield has been described by my colleague Matt Williams,who knows a lot more about in running betting than me,as the longest furlong in racing. The tracks configuration,with it’s tight bends and short home straight lends itself to exciting racing and it’s common to see the entire field covered by only a few lengths on the final bend. It’s equally common to see the lead change hand several times inside the final furlong,so plenty of shorties get chinned in running,as often it’s those that are played late who gain the upper hand.

15. Give greater respect to the form of claimers and sellers.
All weather claimers are notoriously poor fare,but in the current economic climate where disappointing results are being achieved at the sales,it’s possible that more trainers may look to claimers and sellers as a way of achieving a fair price for horses they wish to pass on. Richard Hannon’s shrewd handling of filly Rebecca De Winter illustrates this point.

Hannon put the 86 rated two year old into Tattersalls Horses in Training sale at Newmarket on October 28th,but she failed to fetch the money he was looking for so he bought her in for 6,500 gns.

He entered her in a Lingfield claimer on Thursday with a price tag of only £10,000,which meant she was able to run off 8st 6lb and according to Racing Post Ratings was 5lb clear of her highest rated rival. She took advantage of what looked like a penalty kick with a stylish success under Richard Hughes to scoop the prize money of £2,279 for Hannon,and she was claimed,so the trainer walked away with a tidy profit.

16. The importance of race position and the draw.
The draw can be important at all the all weather tracks,although it should always be considered in tandem with horse’s running styles. Obviously,if a front runner is parked out wide it’s a potential negative,but if a hold up horse has an outside berth it probably wont make much difference to his chance. So with horses who like to race prominently,look for low draws at Lingfield,Southwell,Wolverhampton,Great Lieghs and Dundalk,while at the right handed Kempton a high draw helps horses with early speed take a handy pitch.

17. Look for horses who hold a definite class edge in their division.
It’s important to remember that the size of the population of horse who race on the all weather over the winter is relatively small, and in the classier races the same horses keep bumping into each other. So when a progressive horse who is a class above his rivals emerges,he does very well.

A recent example is Areyoutalkingtome. The competion couldn’t live with him over sprint distances on the all weather two seasons ago. He won six races in a row at Lingfield between 5f and 7f from October 2006 to February 2007,and the only time he was beaten on the all weather during that period was when he failed to stay 1m1/2f at Wolverhampton.

18. Follow Neil Callan.
Neil Callan has great stats in close finishes on the all weather. He rarely gets horses beat by going to fast,so when he is up on the front end,the front runners are probably running at a pace that they are comfortable with.

19. Respect Italian raiders.
Italy has all weather racing at Capanelle and several Italian trainers have made successful raids on all weather races in Britain. The most recent was Salvatore Santella whose Il Grande Maurizio won a handicap off 95 at 16/1 last month at Kempton.

20. Find the fastest horse in Southwell sprints.
It may sound obvious to find the fastest horse in a sprint,but Southwell sprints are invariably dominated by those who possess early speed,as it’s very difficult to play catch up in Fibresand sprints.

Some of these pointers are superb and all are totally relevant. Following the jocks mentioned is very important especially George baker as he really is the master at this game.

On The draw…. all the tracks have there pros and cons but it is important to have a jockey with brain that understands how to take advantage of a good draw.

A few pointers note about draw and conditions:

All tracks….try and avoid betting in the first 2 races! Going is described as Standard or sometimes fast but there are about 5 levels of standard!!!!

Lingfield for example has recently seen the Front runners being done by the finishers late on, however the sudden drop in temperature has seen track conditions change in favour of the front runner with the right fractions. So whilst it is cold you want low draws in anything under a mile, and look for a horse that like to make or be up with the pace (important at many of the tracks)

Southwell….. Low draws and up with the pace. As the post says, how often do you see a horse swoop later and make up 10 lengths in the last 2 furlongs….never! 5 Furlong and a low draw is an absolute must and for place potters that do perms stick the 1 draw in regardless of the horses form, and take faves on no matter how short with double digit draws.

Kempton…. Only right handed track, so we want high numbers here and in the sprints a front runner would be handy too drawn high. But also look for horses that travel well that finish strongly as we see many come from way off the pace here to win, and our man George Baker does it better than anyone. For in running players, keep an eye on Hayley Turner on hold up horses racing on the outer course here and note the progression she often makes when they reach the intersection, often you will see horses come from last to lead in half a furlong by dashing up the rail, now often they don’t hang on but in running you can trade in at say 15-20 and out seconds later at 2s.

Wolves…. generally low draws an advantage, but also look for jockeys that have good + figures on the £ at the track as the ones with the – £ all try and win down the rail….watch the finishers, they come down the middle of the track

Great Leighs….. again check the stats as some jocks much better here than others as it seems to pay to come down the middle in the straight as per Wolves (Dettori aint worked this out yet lol). 5/6F Low draw almost essential…note how many races the 2 drawn widest are non runners! The Mile has a negative against the middle draws so look for a pace horse drawn high or low not just low as the ATR idiots go on about, and again pace very important here as more often than not races are won from the front or thos right up with the pace.

Look at times…very important
Look at times v distance as well. I could not believe I got to back Ivory Silk last time out at 24s on Betfair, A reproduction of his last 6F run over 5F would see him win from the front and win well…. Result 1st 6/1 in a new track record

Finally just look.. you can study the form book all day long but there is no substitute for watching a race over and over again. Watch a 5 furlong sprint 20 times and watch each indiviual runner for the whole race then note the non triers, the hard luck stories and the utter dogs and bring this info into the equation for their next runs….anyone got any draw bias’ DUNDALK????

So, Kauto as the banker in a £12 treble with

• Wolverhampton 3:55: Active Asset and Kames Park
• Wolverhampton 4:25: Scamperdale, Confidentiality, Traphalgar

Result?

So I now have flash money for my favourite race; the Welsh Grand National and my educational trip to Southwell on the 29th.

Sougthed!

“If racing were a publicly quoted company, after that announcement the share price would have fallen 30 per cent.”

Been meaning to write-up my thoughts on this subject for a while now. Motivated into action as a result of reading this article and comments on the Racing Forum.

FWIW here are the changes I would implement to bring back the punters

Reduce Entry Costs
I’m fortunate enough to have relatives who live in the sunny state of Florida and on many occasions attended Calder and Gulfstream racecourses.

Both courses are outstanding, both courses charge $5 (£3.22) entrance fee, free for senior citizens. Contrast this against a cost of £18 ($27) for premier enclosure admission at a gaff track like Bath (and higher for the so called grade 1 courses), tell me again what exactly do we get for our custom?

Update on Course Facilities
Frankly the facilities at some UK courses are abysmal compared to US tracks. Punters are paying customers; treat them with respect by providing facilities, surroundings and catering which leaves punters with a sweet taste instead of bitter especially if they’ve lost money during their visit!!

Educate the Punter.

Why do men feel they can bet or undertake DIY projects without formal training?

I am one of the few that subscribe to the notion that punters perpetuate the myth of corruption in the sport of kings to paper over their own failings. With a little education punters can save all the heartache and avoid the jolly in a 0-55 rated fillies’ handicap or favourite in a conditional jockey’s race!

My other betting vice (Craps, a rarity in this country thank god) was introduced to me at a free seminar in Vegas during one of my visits. Pre race, why don’t the race course hold similar sessions for first time or novice punters to explain horseracing terms and betting in basic and simple language?

Zero Tolerance Policy
Discourage on course drunkenness and abusive behaviour seen in most city centres on a Saturday night.

Reduce Prices for Food and Beverages
Today there is shocking profiteering for substandard food and drink at racecourses. However, during my visits to Wolverhampton, Lingfield and Kempton the food is passable but expensive; elsewhere the food is substandard at best and expensive!

Improve the Standard of Racing
There are too many horses chasing and an ever decreasing amount of prize money. If the product is the horses, then racing is selling punters a substandard item when the BHA churn out low grade races day after day. With the advent of the credit crunch racing needs to cut its costs according by investing in quality and not quantity.

Make Attending a Race Meeting an Event
Encourage (not enforce) a formal dress code. Women like to dress up, some blokes too. With the upgrading on course facilities punters should wear attire to match. Make the punter feel privilege to go racing!

Encourage families by catering to their needs (on course picnic areas and playgrounds). Let the kids see the horses up-close and personal by encouraging horse “petting areas”. Provide areas where families can be together without being crushed by masses.

In summary our racing authorities needs to up its game or face a slow decline from the nation’s consciousness. When reading the comments posted on the racing forum, alas it may be too late..

Great Leighs could be under new ownership by the end of next week after the joint administrators confirmed a buyer for the track has been found.

Further details cane be found here..

Hold your horses though; the course still requires a licence from the British Horseracing Authority and entry into the fixture allocation process for 2010.

Update: 15/5/09 – “Racing licence deadline looms”

Tick Tick Tick

Update: 19/5/09 – “Great Leighs deal collapses”

Boom!

It’s a rare event for me to watch “The Morning Line” on Channel 4 for reasons I won’t go into here. During the program, the ex Ballydoyle stable jockey Kieran Fallon was interviewed and asked to comment on today’s 2000 Guineas.

Given his experience in the race, when asked who would be his choice from the Aidan O’Brien horses, my ears pricked when he replied that his fancy was Mastercraftsman based on Speed Figures!

Ballydoyle/Coolmore are masters of their trade employing sophisticated training methods throughout their operation. I did read somewhere in the mists of time that sectional timing is employed on their gallops.

Mastercraftsman may or may not win the 2000 Guineas today (I’ve backed him along with Sea The Stars and Lord Shanakill). However Kieran’s comment (regardless of his off course exploits) gives us punters a valuable insight into the thinking behind  Aidan and Kieran’s selection strategy.

Update

Some beer money in addition to my punt on Betfair

“The clerk of the course states that the going has changed to powdered with 10 feet snow drifts on the stands rail“

Even the so called “All Weather” tracks are having a hard time of coping with the cold snap and recent deluge of snow.

I bet (excuse the pun) that the gallops have not escaped the ravages of the weather either and must be playing havoc with trainer plans and strategies.

What has been may not seem to be in the next few weeks if racing gets back on track (again excuse the pun)