Southwell is the black sheep of all the All Weather venues in that it has one major difference, the fibresand surface

As fibresand is a mixture of sand and wispy fibres it is sometimes referred to as “spube”, this being derived from the “s” of sand and the resemblance of a kind of human hair.

The racing is also of significance. The now unique fibresand racing surface is quite deep and so makes the track a good stamina test. Ability to stay the distance and fitness are therefore big advantages at Southwell..

In respect to punting pointers, I had already outlined a few in a previous blog post based on a course visit a while ago. Using the power of Proform Professional I’ll include additional context to this blog entry.

Let’s begin with the most prevalent punting factor at Southwell; pace. When pundits hark on about the fact that Southwell is a pace oriented course, here’s why:

As inferred from the stats, up to 8 furlongs horses that like to run prominently (“L”) have a distinct advantage over their “hold up” counter parts. Once you are out in front at Southwell, the “deep” fibresand surface does not allow you to easily peg any advantage gained from being fast out of the traps. To replicate the effect, next time you are on a beach, offer to run against an opponent of lesser ability over 100 meters, but give them a 5 meter head start.

From a punting perspective a multitude of betting options are on offer using this one factor alone; for example laying the favourite based on its running preference.

In respect to draw stats, like most oval course configurations the closer you are to the inside, trigonometry suggest the less distance that has to be run and therefore the greater advantage a horse has if it’s close to the rail. However watch out for stall 1.

Although counter intuitive to my above statement, there’s something in the manner how the rail rides and at certain times of the year rendering stall 1 a “coffin” box.

There are a number of reasons why this is the case which I won’t regurgitate. Hopefully in the next few months I’ll get the definitive reason from the friendly bunch that is the Southwell regulars at my next course visit.

Simply, the inner rail (and outer over 5 furlongs) rides deeper than other parts of the track which saps the stamina of horses who due to their berth at the off, try to hold their inside position prior to the first turn.

So, rock … meet hard place because if you are in stall 1 in one turn races at Southwell and run prominently you are done for, miss the break and you are done for plus sucking in kickback off the hoofs of the horses in front of you for added measure.

5 furlongs sprints at Southwell also presents a different puzzle for punters. Firstly it’s unique in that the race is on a straight track where at Lingfield, Kempton, Wolverhampton and Dundalk have at least one turn over 5 furlong sprints. Secondly dependant on the number of runners the rails are positioned either “inner” or “outer” which renders all form book 5f Southwell draw stats meaningless.

The trick for 5 furlong races is to first determine stall position and note the pace horses whose stall position is aligned toward the middle of the track and dependant on number of runners in the race be cautious of horses drawn toward the rail either side of the track.

Another tip I picked up from reading Nick Mordins book (Betting For a Living) is to side with horses that have a “straight course” form pattern in their past performances.

Finally horses that favour fibresand are a subset within a subset that perform well on All Weather surfaces, sires to consider at Southwell are:

In summary Southwell uniqueness suggests that discerning punters who wish to dabble in All Weather races should go prospecting at Southwell. There’s gold in them thar fibresand.

Dundalk was only opened in August 2007 and therefore the normal course related stats and facts are yet to be established. This presents a problem for punters who follow course trends and an opportunity for those of us who are focusing our attention into unearthing what the future trends will be.

In fact, Dundalk flies under the radar of most punters and racing journalists hence my partner in crime and I take regular trips to the emerald isle to monitor profitable patterns not in the public domain and while we are there, have a bloody good crack at the same time!

Our next trip is on the 30th September and very much looking forward to the Diamond Stakes.

If you put yourself through some metal gymnastics, Dundalk’s course layout is similar to Wolverhampton’s i.e. flat as a billiard table and tight bends.

Running the numbers via Proform Professional, although the data is limited, the patterns I outlined in my post on Wolverhampton follow similar trends so I will only highlight the key statistics:

Apply the pareto principle suggests that winners are distributed among a limited set of trainers and jockeys

The Dundalk pace bias indicates that you need an “up with the pace” running style (L = Led, P = prominent) for distances up to 8 furlongs and I have confirmed this in numerous on/off course observations.

You would think given the long straights, horses coming off the pace would have enough time to catch the front runners, however the polytrack surface at Dundalk rides like the fibresand surface at Southwell; once you get out in front, it’s hard to be reigned back. Only time will tell whether the bias toward pace horses prevails.

Combine this with a low stall berth, the punting pointers for Dundalk are for the moment, simple

• Favour horses drawn low
• Favour horses that like to run up with the pace
• Races at Dundalk are won by limited set of trainers and jockeys.

Up until I discovered Dundalk in Ireland, Wolverhampton held a special place in my punting heart as I always found betting there easy and as a consequence the first All Weather course I visited when I decided to specialise in All Weather racing.

A description of the facilities can be found here and like all the other All Weather venues, punters are well treated with fantastic facilities.

The course can be considered “flat” and “tight” and as we shall see later, the latter characteristic plays a significant part in the draw bias at Wolverhampton. The stats below are for 3yo handicaps under 8 furlongs

If we break down the horses breeding by country (as you would assume), GB and Irish horses top the winners list. You often hear pundits suggest that you should side with USA bred horses on the All Weather due to their “Dirt Pedigree”, on this occasion they are on the right side of the stats. Surprisingly French bred horses also win more than their fair share of races.

This table just reinforces the handicapping fact that like turf racing, the younger horses are favoured.

The weaker sexes seem to be disadvantaged on this and as we shall see in later posts other All Weather venues. Although I am yet to be convinced as I have punted many a filly home however, I do consider the sex of the horse in my handicapping process.

No surprises here as every book on handicapping suggests you should focus your attention on the horses at the top of the weights.

The same comments apply to the starting prices and why it pays to let the market speak first before making a bet. The stats indicate that if you focus your attention on the top 5 in the market just before the race, the majority of the time you will find the winner.

The pace  statistic suggests that in races below 8 furlongs with those that like to be close to the lead from the gate are typically there or thereabouts at the wire. However to understand the pace dynamics at Wolverhampton, you really need to treat each distance differently per the next table

What we now see is that over 5f, you need to side with the “early” horses, over 8f as so often happens the early horses get shot down in the final furlong by the “other than early” hold up horses. 6f and 7f are the most difficult races to read in respect to their biases. I have to admit that I have yet to see a horse “make all” over 6f and my own observations suggest that stall position is the key factor over this distance. Over 7 furlongs I have seen horses win from gate to wire and win coming off the pace.

Typically in the winter months the polytrack surface will ride “deep” as a consequence of harrowing to remove frost. Doubtful stayers at any distance get found out. A wet surface due to rain causes surface compaction which results in the opposite effect.

In summary, it does pay to review previous races to determine the current pace bias of the day and also the pace within the race to try and anticipate how the race will unfold.

Ideally the draw statistics should be broken down by distance, but suffice to say that given the tightness of the bends at Wolverhampton, horses drawn low hold a distinct advantage

Wolverhampton Punting Pointers

• The winner is typically top 5 in the weights and starting prices
• Side with Geldings and Colts
• A low draw is a distinct advantage
• Over 5 furlongs,  horses with a “held up” pace profile are “lay” candidates.
• Betting horses bred in IRE, USA and FRA are more profitable in the long run than horses bred in GB
• Focus your attention on horses aged 5 years old or less.

Data Source: Proform Professional

In recent years I was a fully paid up member of Bath Racecourse, which is a hop skip and a jump away from my front door. However per previous posts the venue just kept disappointing all of last year so decided relinquish my membership to pick and choose my attendance at Bath and switch my on course visits to All Weather venues instead.

This is my first visit this year and I was on the verge of not attending however there are a few class 4 races carded, the allure of some fit fillies (its ladies day) and ok’ish weather persuaded me to remove my eyeballs from my excel spreadsheet, get suited and booted and load up the wallet!

Bath 17:40

A tricky race first up which is unusual, typically the race planners like to get punters off to a win, then allow them to be fleeced by the on course bookies later in the card.

As I write this, I think we can oppose current market leader and veteran Barons Spy who seems a little high in the weights. Soap Wars holds and entry in the Ayr Gold Cup and should be watched in the market, Pick a little drops in grade, Restless Bay just can’t seem to get his head in front on turf but cannot be dismissed. Wooden King is outclassed along with Emiratesdotcom. Ebraam does most of his winning on the All Weather, but has put in some good turf efforts recently.

1st 2 Barons Spy (IRE) 13-2

Bath 19:10

Fillies races should always come with a government health warning but Picabo looks solid,  Comptonspirit looks high in the weights. Sharpened Edge is interesting from a pace angle as she’ll get and uncontested lead and maybe hard to peg back..

1st 2 Comptonspirit 5-1

Bath 19:40

Area Fifty One  looks solid in the company, beaten favourite Maher’s recent run was on the wrong ground so can be excused the poor performance. Pelham Crescent has previous here and might just surprise everyone at a big price. Huff And Puff should be watched very carefully in the market. Punted off the boards here earlier in the year, Amanda Perrett is currently on the cold trainers list. Brouhaha would be more of interest on the All Weather. Stranger Monster Munchie is another that should be watched in the market as his trainer is also on the cold list.

1st 7 One Lucky Lady 5-1

Bath 20:10

For those who are about to bet in this race … we salute you!

1st 8 Red Current 10-1

Winnings Distances @ Bath

Still in experimentation mode regarding my winning distances spread calculations. Will take a virtual interest at total lengths 6.92. Sporting Index quote SELL 10.4 – 11.4 BUY suggestion a virtual SELL

Settled @ 7:  3.4 points profit.

Decided to swerve the cider pissup meeting at my local track of Bath. Could be something to do with the fact that there will be 3000+ race go’ers drinking the strong stuff i.e. lots of drunkenness and minimal runners in each race.

So it’s the Huntsman’s Bath which is conveniently located next to Corals to celebrate my transition to a new technical account at work.

My betting forecasts and contenders are listed below

Bath 17:05

Contenders: 1, 2, 6
1st 6 Uncle Roger (IRE) 10-11 F

Bath 17.35

Contenders 3, 7, 8
1st 8 Dreams Of Glory 7-2

Bath 18:10

Contenders: 1, 5, 6
1st 5 My Meteor 3-1 JF

Bath 18:45

Contenders: 1, 2
1st 1 Lastroseofsummer (IRE) evens F

Bath 19:20

Contenders: 6, 4, 7
1st 6 Area Fifty One 2-1 F

Bath 19:55

Contenders: 2, 5
1st 2 Tenby Lady (USA) 4-7 F

Bath 20.25

Contenders: 1,7, 8
1st 1 Peachez 11-2

There is plenty of money in Aquae Sulis which would love to flaunt its wealth at the venue. However there are a number of fundamental changes required

1. The racecourse needs major redevelopment. In 2011 Bath celebrates its 25th anniversary. The buildings are showing their age and require more than a lick of paint. More like a resigned and my suggestion would base the architecture on Dundalk’s layout. With views like those above the building design should take advantage of Baths fantastic elevation at the same time guarding against the elements.
2. Better quality horses need to be attracted to the venue. I love the cut and thrust of low grade events but at times the racing is so bad even I can’t be bother to get my ratings spreadsheet out to handicap the race. Unfortunately the course needs to offer serious prize money which in this economic climate is highly unlikely.

I also wanted to kick off my new approach at a venue where I have relatively little experience.

8/1 and 14/1 winners from 4 races and a bet on the underdog Tipperary to beat the reigning champions and four time winner Kilkenny in the GAA Hurling final more than paid for my weekend in the emerald isle

This time though I took a good look around the racecourse

The views from the public area in the main stand near a few hospitality suites (hooray) are stunning.

With a racecourse that treats punters with respect, fantastic food, friendly atmosphere, cheap on course drinks, downtown pubs that show At The Races and Racing UK situated next door to bookies, and nightclubs that stay open till 4am (including the hotel bar) Dundalk is fast becoming my favourite venue.

Taking advantage of cheap Ryan Air tickets and a fantastic punters package
Mr X (the spread bettor) and I took a trip to Dundalk racecourse. The aim of the visit was to see if I could add Dundalk to my All Weather course punting list.

In summary Dundalk sets the standard as far as I’m concerned. If all courses treated punters in the same manner as this venue then racing in the UK would have a bright future.

Ok, Dundalk is a new venue benefiting from significant investment; the key word though is investment. Our powers that be seem to think that you can improve racing without putting hands in pockets to stump up the cash for all their racing “initiatives”.

If anyone from the British Horse Racing board reads this blog, take a trip to Dundalk to see what can be done when you stop tinkering at the margins and get to grip with the basics!

Dundalk Stadium is located to the north of Dundalk in County Louth between Dublin and Belfast. As you can see from the photos the views are picturesque (Mr X is in the foreground)

The facilities are excellent, proving unobstructed views of the course for diners and ground floor punters alike.

Similar to Wexford the proximity of the parade ring and layout of the betting ring is designed for the benefit of punters. You can see the horses in the parade ring, watch the bookmaker’s prices and watch the horses going to post all with the turn of your head.

Dundalk have also eliminated the stupid policy of ripping off punters  sorry, … …  charging for different locations of the course,  so “all” punters are offered fantastic bar, screen and tote betting facilities. The al a cart restaurant offers fantastic value and large portions to boot.

For a punting perspective, my observations are that Dundalk is a front runner’s track over the majority of distances (especially 5,6 furlongs) and fortunately for me I stuck to may pace angle in the handicaps to land 8/1 and 11/1 winners to set me up for nocturnal activities.

So, once you’ve experienced horse racing what happens next?

Well, not only does Dundalk offer All weather events, once races conclude, they offer an 8 race greyhound card on the inner track.

Typically I avoid the dogs after an uninspiring visit to Swindon a number of years ago. However on this occasion when observing the tight nature of the track I decided to apply my technique for chaos horse races and keyed blind traps 1, 2 and 3 (assuming they had the advantage of the inside draw) in value exacta bets over the other traps.

Result, extremely successful to the point that I added further profit to my earlier horse bets. Beginners luck caused me to pop into Boylesports the next morning before the train departed to win a bit more on the dogs betting chaos exacta’s.

I will definitely add Greyhound Racing to my betting portfolio once I rehash my spreadsheet to accurately reflect the BAGS computer forecast calculation which factors trap numbers in the calculation of the forecast payout.

There is also potential to add spread betting too after picking Mr X’s brains all weekend. Maybe the activities in downtown Dundalk got the better of my judgment at 3am in the morning. It definitely got the better of my body, I am still knackered as I write this blog entry.

I won’t bother with a review of the course given that a perfectly adequate report is available on the ORS Racing Web site. However, once I eyeballed the course layout I had another epiphany moment .

The course is as flat as a billiard table and unlike Wolverhampton where the turns are tight, the turns here are sweeping and the straights deceptively long, especially the final 4 furlongs off the final bend. Additionally the course is galloping in nature allowing plenty of time for horses to gather a head of steam therefore most races are truly run affairs.

The famous fibresand surface is not as deep as it seems when viewing races on the TV although given my comments above and its unique consistency, Southwell for horses is like marmite, you either love it or hate it!

During my visit I met Maxilon 5 from the Racing Forum All Weather Lays and Plays thread (started by yours truly). As local racegoer he is a fountain of knowledge all things Southwell and the key factors of this unique venue. Our exchange of views and opinions was well worth the price of admission and my contribution to the gambling god’s coffers.

Things I picked up during our afternoon musings

• When assessing the chances of horses running here its Southwell form, Southwell form followed by long and distant Southwell form
• There are a subset of trainers that like this venue too
• The market and betting ring is ultra efficient. There are a lot of punters at Southwell that know the time of day. The opinion of this silent minority is reflected in the prices in the final minutes before the off (Note to self – Because your tissue scream’s “value”, that does not give you the green light to hoover up drifting prices from “every” bookmaker in the ring!!)
• Its difficult (but not impossible) to win draw wide over 6,7 and 8 furlongs
• Stamina and early pace are key requirements at these distances for any horse running at Southwell. Did I also mention Southwell form?
• I typically lump Class 5, 6 form together when assessing the chances of contenders in these grades. Based on some advise from Max I may need to modify my thinking as some horses suffered from the Peter Principle while others that ran poorly at other venues seem to thrive here.