Taking advantage of cheap Ryan Air tickets and a fantastic punters package
Mr X (the spread bettor) and I took a trip to Dundalk racecourse. The aim of the visit was to see if I could add Dundalk to my All Weather course punting list.

In summary Dundalk sets the standard as far as I’m concerned. If all courses treated punters in the same manner as this venue then racing in the UK would have a bright future.

Ok, Dundalk is a new venue benefiting from significant investment; the key word though is investment. Our powers that be seem to think that you can improve racing without putting hands in pockets to stump up the cash for all their racing “initiatives”.

If anyone from the British Horse Racing board reads this blog, take a trip to Dundalk to see what can be done when you stop tinkering at the margins and get to grip with the basics!

Dundalk Stadium is located to the north of Dundalk in County Louth between Dublin and Belfast. As you can see from the photos the views are picturesque (Mr X is in the foreground)

The facilities are excellent, proving unobstructed views of the course for diners and ground floor punters alike.

Similar to Wexford the proximity of the parade ring and layout of the betting ring is designed for the benefit of punters. You can see the horses in the parade ring, watch the bookmaker’s prices and watch the horses going to post all with the turn of your head.

Dundalk have also eliminated the stupid policy of ripping off punters  sorry, … …  charging for different locations of the course,  so “all” punters are offered fantastic bar, screen and tote betting facilities. The al a cart restaurant offers fantastic value and large portions to boot.

For a punting perspective, my observations are that Dundalk is a front runner’s track over the majority of distances (especially 5,6 furlongs) and fortunately for me I stuck to may pace angle in the handicaps to land 8/1 and 11/1 winners to set me up for nocturnal activities.

So, once you’ve experienced horse racing what happens next?

Well, not only does Dundalk offer All weather events, once races conclude, they offer an 8 race greyhound card on the inner track.

Typically I avoid the dogs after an uninspiring visit to Swindon a number of years ago. However on this occasion when observing the tight nature of the track I decided to apply my technique for chaos horse races and keyed blind traps 1, 2 and 3 (assuming they had the advantage of the inside draw) in value exacta bets over the other traps.

Result, extremely successful to the point that I added further profit to my earlier horse bets. Beginners luck caused me to pop into Boylesports the next morning before the train departed to win a bit more on the dogs betting chaos exacta’s.

I will definitely add Greyhound Racing to my betting portfolio once I rehash my spreadsheet to accurately reflect the BAGS computer forecast calculation which factors trap numbers in the calculation of the forecast payout.

There is also potential to add spread betting too after picking Mr X’s brains all weekend. Maybe the activities in downtown Dundalk got the better of my judgment at 3am in the morning. It definitely got the better of my body, I am still knackered as I write this blog entry.

I won’t bother with a review of the course given that a perfectly adequate report is available on the ORS Racing Web site. However, once I eyeballed the course layout I had another epiphany moment .

The course is as flat as a billiard table and unlike Wolverhampton where the turns are tight, the turns here are sweeping and the straights deceptively long, especially the final 4 furlongs off the final bend. Additionally the course is galloping in nature allowing plenty of time for horses to gather a head of steam therefore most races are truly run affairs.

The famous fibresand surface is not as deep as it seems when viewing races on the TV although given my comments above and its unique consistency, Southwell for horses is like marmite, you either love it or hate it!

During my visit I met Maxilon 5 from the Racing Forum All Weather Lays and Plays thread (started by yours truly). As local racegoer he is a fountain of knowledge all things Southwell and the key factors of this unique venue. Our exchange of views and opinions was well worth the price of admission and my contribution to the gambling god’s coffers.

Things I picked up during our afternoon musings

• When assessing the chances of horses running here its Southwell form, Southwell form followed by long and distant Southwell form
• There are a subset of trainers that like this venue too
• The market and betting ring is ultra efficient. There are a lot of punters at Southwell that know the time of day. The opinion of this silent minority is reflected in the prices in the final minutes before the off (Note to self – Because your tissue scream’s “value”, that does not give you the green light to hoover up drifting prices from “every” bookmaker in the ring!!)
• Its difficult (but not impossible) to win draw wide over 6,7 and 8 furlongs
• Stamina and early pace are key requirements at these distances for any horse running at Southwell. Did I also mention Southwell form?
• I typically lump Class 5, 6 form together when assessing the chances of contenders in these grades. Based on some advise from Max I may need to modify my thinking as some horses suffered from the Peter Principle while others that ran poorly at other venues seem to thrive here.

Tipped up Lujiana in the 1.20 at Southwell Sunday to the amazement of the punters in Corals Bath (I did make quite a bit of noise when he crossed the line at 25/1)

How? A simple matter of the draw bias. Unlike the bias over 5 furlongs at Beverly which is well publicised, the equivalent bias at Southwell is disguised by stall position, number of runners in the race and pace.

Having a big winner (and basking off the profits and the adulation of other punters) has seriously boosted confidence in my capabilities and approach.

However, I hope the gambling gods are not about to exact their revenge proportional to the size of my win!

For the approach to work, one requires a knowledge of the prevailing track pace bias.

Previous at Wolverhampton any horse drawn low that raced prominently over 5,6 and 7 furlongs instantly made the shortlist. Having just updated my pace charts for Wolverhampton I note a fundamental change in the track bias which now favours hold up horses over 6 and 7 furlongs.

Not sure if this is due to the long spell of dry weather we have had (polytrack rides deeper when there is no moisture in the air) or the Clark of the Course has instructed the maintenance boys to harrow the track a bit deeper.

Either way I shall keep on eye on the bias as there may be opportunities to oppose short priced front runners at tasty prices in the coming weeks.

There are only 3 meetings planned for the rest of this year, however as written on many occasions September is dangerous month for punters given changing ground/weather conditions and tired horses after a long turf campaign.

The majority of this season has been spent attending Bath racecourse therefore I think I am qualified to comment on this idiosyncratic nature of this venue.

• Don’t oppose the favorite in the first race unless there is money for something else in the field.

• Over certain distances Bath is a front runner’s track. Horses that like to race prominently and are well drawn should be given your utmost attention over 8, 10 and 13 furlongs.

• In addition to passing those in front of them, hold up horses have to negotiate a tight downhill back straight and tight final bend. They are then faced with the challenge of making their challenge on an upward slope toward the finishing line.

• Bath is a unique course. Side with horses that have run well here before! For example Desparate Dan form figures at Bath are 10 runs 4 wins 4 palaces. His recent 10/1 win at SP  (12/1 on course) was a highlight of my season.

• Forget the Tote Placepot at Bath. The market leaders usually make the frame and typically the average payout is £40

• Bath is about 3000 feet above sea level. Even when the sun shining a gentle breeze can make the course chilly

What have I learnt from attending meetings at Bath?

• You can’t crush every race, be selective

• I’m much better betting in handicaps than non handicaps (I knew this already).

• The market provides a good insight into a races at Bath. Not that the market gets it right all the time. No, the market is a good guide to the chaotic nature of a race.

• Course specialisation can give you and edge.

Onwards toward the All Weather season

The heat of the sun brought out the crowds at Bath Racecourse last Sunday.

I only punted in three races which resulted in a winner and copious amounts of beer in the shade.

The focus of this visit was to put into practice the objective of my last post; to list contenders in order or preference in preparation for creating my personal odds line.

Assisting me in this task, the teachings of Barry Meadow have helped immensely.

His book has nothing to do with handicapping and everything to do with money management to prescribe

• Money management thru use of a personal odds line
• Practical use of the kelly criterion based on your assessment of the race
• Analysis of chances, rather than attempting to pick winners

I am confident his approach works and I now have a much better understanding of these aspects of punting.

The next objective is to put into place the following maxim when handicapping

Common sense dictates that you cannot outsmart the public if you are handicapping with the same information and methods as the public

Onto the next basecamp.

As soon as the heavens opened I knew I should have observed proceedings from the Bath Ales on course bar!

Handicapping theory indicates that if you fancy something and it drifts in the market you should bet more. This theory should come with a government health warning if race conditions change. Coupled with a moment of madness on Diane’s Choice and loses at Southwell it was a miserable betting performance (just like the weather). Aren’t amphibians supposed to revel in wet conditions?

The key lesson for today is that normal draw biases change when the ground softens and Bath is no different. When the going is soft, the far rail is verboten so any horse challenging on the inside gets swallowed in the final furlong. Down the road there’s potential to exploit this phenomenon in-running.

On a positive note I have gathered enough data to prove a simple and effective handicapping elimination filter but with no All Weather races this week I’ll take time out to monitor turf biases for potential betting opportunities on horses that like to run prominently in paced biased races/courses/distances.

Great Leighs could be under new ownership by the end of next week after the joint administrators confirmed a buyer for the track has been found.

Further details cane be found here..

Hold your horses though; the course still requires a licence from the British Horseracing Authority and entry into the fixture allocation process for 2010.

Update: 15/5/09 – “Racing licence deadline looms”

Tick Tick Tick

Update: 19/5/09 – “Great Leighs deal collapses”

Boom!

Another sunny day at Bath although, due to its elevation the course can get a bit chilly when the wind blows or when the sun is obscured by the clouds.

After losing the first race, I had to wait until 4.30 until punting again (I’m applying a selective approach when on course).  Fortunately, I had some field work to keep me occupied.

Of the 7 races on the card, three were over the distance of 1m2f. Pre race, my pace stats indicated an advantage to prominent runners. The draw stats indicated and advanatge to those drawn toward the middle.

The following table lists the draw number of the runners making the frame on the day of my visit

Note the early pace comments for each winner

2:45 – Aypeeyes:  tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, chased leader over 1f out, led close home

3:20 – Rosik: tracked leader, led over 2f out, ridden and held on

3:55 – Lake Kalamalk: in touch, shaken up 2f out, switched right over 1f out, ran on well to lead close home

Interesting ….

I’ve started the painstaking process of making notes on the various biases (draw and pace) of all flat distances at UK racecourses and came across insightful comments on 2yo racing about the infamous 5 furlong sprint distance at Beverley.

The 5f course is uphill throughout and curves to the right most of the way meaning a low draw leaves you hung out from the rail and running further. The slope of the hill also goes away from the stalls meaning if you are drawn 1 you start lower down than stall 14 as well as being further away around the bend. Double figure fields on quicker going rarely produce winners below the 7-8 range unless the pace has been much too strong and the rail leaders fold.