In an effort to improve my own statistical models I started researching the works of William Bentner

Benter is recognised world over for his work in applied mathematical modeling, probability theory and statistical analysis. Below are a couple of you tube videos taken from his 2004 presentation “What Are My Odds” at the Third Congress of Chinese Mathematicians where he outlines his method applied to horse racing that netted him a 24% profit on turnover.

Further insights into the use of computerised betting can be found here

Below is an internet radio interview (downloaded from Blog Talk Radio) where Barry provides his opinion on

• Making money at the racetrack
• Adapting to changing circumstances
• Important handicapping factors
• Speed Figures and the Bounce Theory
• Trainers and Jockeys
• Value Betting
• Doing what the crowd isn’t doing and picking winners
• Toteboard dynamics
• Money Management
• Discipline and handling emotions

As normal my dog Muttley woke me up early for his morning constitutional and food. Border Terriers are a stomach on legs so can be persistent in the pursuit of a tasty morsel even at 6:30 am Sunday morning.

Instead of firing up my Nokia E72 to check out price movements on Betfair, with only one race of interest today decided to continue my read of Dave Nevison book No Easy Money: A Gambler’s Diary. I have read his first book (A Bloody Good Winner) which was brilliant as it contained many crumbs of comfort for us aspiring professionals.

Though sceptical of his second book based on reviews in various forums, the book was purchased by my daughter as a Christmas present (there’s a rumour doing the rounds, often repeated that people find it difficult to buy me presents) so decided to plough through each page for educational reasons.

Dave and I are alike in that we like a punt and a good party (combining both if we can, ah my days in Las Vegas) so the pages which recited his exploits from race courses up and down the land didn’t educate me in that respect.

For me the revelation was contained in the chapter “Drowning in the Pool” where he has a crisis of confidence after losing bundles chasing the Tote Scoop 6 pool.

Dave is a value punter  (and I try to emulate him) therefore constructs a tissue.

My job is to apply my knowledge of the form to the particular circumstances of the race in order to put a figure next to each horse, expressing its chance of winning. The figure is the price I consider to be an accurate reflection of its chance, whether 6-4 on or 25-1 against.

Pre race, he matches his opinion (tissue) against the market and backs horses that are paying > 15% edge.

However that opinion is sooooo 2009, when reading the chapter above and after yesterday’s observations plus corresponding drift on Betfair.  The new mantra for 2010 is the efficiency of the market

It was interesting to read Tom Segal, Pricewise in the Racing Post, arguing in the Weekender that no-on knows better than the collective wisdom of the market. That wasn’t true a few years ago but I am beginning to thing that it might be today.

The market is different from pre-Betfair days. It is now an amalgam of the best racing brains in the country and it reflects horses’ true chances of winning more accurately than ever before. I have come to terms with that and try to use it to my advantage rather than stick two fingers up at it. There isn’t much profit to be made from following the crowd but if the crowd is the one that forms the market, which means Betfair, then instead of being against the crowd, I have to try to be ahead of it.

I think that more than before, in decent-quality races horses who drift from their morning prices don’t win while those who are already prominent in the market shorten further, do. These price movements represent market sentiment, as opposed to the opinions of individual odds compliers, and market sentiment has become a more important factor

I don’t completely subscribe to all of the comment in the above passage. The market doesn’t always get it right (the current turmoil in the financial markets is testament to that) however, those us who are statistically minded note 80% efficiency in the SP market. If I were to repeat numbers like that I would be writing this post from my beach house in a costal resort somewhere in the Caribbean.

Also Tom Segal was not the first to highlight the efficiency of the market as applied to horseracing. In his book “Fast Track to Thoroughbred Profits” written in 1984, Cramer highlights the collective knowledge of the crowd using a fictitious time traveller who listed the betting public as his top three hero’s of the century. Why? Through their collective opinion they achieve i.e. the favourite the best strike rate of any handicapper.

Therefore to ignore the crowd is potentially a loss making strategy. Within this in mind I’ll probably adopt Dave’s approach and use my tissue to identify value in the early price markets. In the minutes before the off I’ll accept shorter prices on horses that have shortened though my tissue and side with the market in avoiding horses at longer “drifting” prices than my tissue.

Wildebeest look very cool munching on their daily diet when they don’t perceive any obvious threat. When the lions arrive it’s really only a question of how quickly they can run away, although the most dangerous lions will often succeed in making a kill. Sometimes, when a pack of lions are particularly well organised, they will make repeated kills over a sustained period!

I’m reading Patrick Veitch book at the moment and the above is the opening thought provoking paragraph.

So far there are no juicy bits in respect punting tips. However within the first few pages he leaves you in no doubt that it requires an incredible amount of work allied with long hours to keep ahead of us mugs and the bookmakers.

Update

Patrick Veitch’s interview from BBC Radio 4’s Saturday Live program 25th April 2009

Tooting put me onto a recent week long series in the Racing Post “Betting Masterclass”, where they featured the most successful professional punters in the business.

Dave Nevison is a by the numbers “tissue” punter so I read his commentary first given that I am trying to emulate this approach.  I note that if a horse is available at about a 15% longer price than on his own tissue Nevision backs it. I’ll drop my differential down to 20% from 50% and monitor the change.

At the end of the article he made the following comments:

In Nevison’s view, the recent golden age for punters has passed, eroded by a sophisticated, highly responsive market that makes it difficult for even knowledgeable professionals to maintain satisfactory profit margins.

He asserts that knowledge is power and believes that information becomes property so quickly in today’s environment that it is difficult to exploit an ‘edge’ for long.

So should I give up now?

Not for me as a mere mug to differ with Dave, but I cant help feeling he has not evolved with the times. Being highly opinionated, he maybe assuming that his method is the ONLY approach to punting and now it’s not working, we should all plough another field?

He does end his article with some positive advice to us mugs

Knowledge, discipline, the ability to recognise value, and specialisation in the face of the rising volume of racing, are the keys to success or, at least, to less failure.