Its a toss up between  Mac’s Power,  Colonel Mak,  Edinburgh Knight and Mon Cadeaux well drawn in stall 2. Will decide closer to the race (dependent on prices as always)

1st 1 Hoof It 13-2 JF

Comment

The “numbers” indicate that the top two are a cut above the rest.

Given the trainers record in this race Fathom Five should be watched in the market along with stable mate Falasteen. The dash has been a graveyard for 3yo’s therefore Arctic Feeling and Jamesway are eliminated from consideration.

In the Derby I am a bit mob handed with big priced anti-post vouchers on Carlton House and Seville. Irish bred horses have a good record in the Derby so I throw Pour Moi into the mix to cover all eventualities

[5th June Update]

Captain Dune wins the “Dash”

Pour Moi Wins the Derby

Yesterday capped a banner day for the Toad. With the winner of the “Dash” (Captain Dunne)  and the “Derby” (Pour Moi), both in heart stopping finishes, I celebrated “Barzalona” stylee in Corals Bath due to some nice touches landed.

The gambling gods, Epsom and Her Majesty will no doubt frowned upon my exuberance like my namesake, but for the moment I’ll enjoy the ride.. Until I get a knock on the door from Her Majesty’s household cavalry.

In both races much is made of the draw bias when in reality (assuming even going across the track) on a straight course, any bias in the race is dictated by the pace dynamics within the race and in my opinion this results in the winner emerging from whichever side makes the running.

It is also true to say that given the field size, both races are end-to-end gallops therefore a fine balance between a horses speed (how fast they distribute their energy) and stamina (how big is their tank of energy) is essential.

In addition based on a statistic I read yesterday evening, 54 jockeys with claims have ridden in this race since 1997 and none have won. This suggest experience of the jockey is an additional factor in this balance.

Finally on the pace angle, if you watch previous renewals of ether the Spring Mile and Lincoln you will note that any horse held up at the back in unable to quicken in the final furlong. In running punters take note!

2.05 Spring Mile

The consolation race for those that could not get into the main event.

The pace figures suggest that horse drawn high have the edge although I could not dismiss the chances of Breakheart drawn 9. Norman Orpen and Eton Forever form my shortlisted horses.

3.10 Lincoln

Lots and lots of pace drawn low (far side) so thats was the focus of my attention although Gunner Lindley should fly the flag for the high drawn horses.

The current market leader Taqleed is drawn 11 which may presents  a tricky proposition for Richard Hills. Once the Spring Mile has ran the result will be as ever be over analysed by pundits, TV and punters alike. If my calculations are correct the result will infer a high draw bias and Richard may be tempted to steer Taqleed in that direction. A fatal mistake in my opinion.

Even is he opts for the low side of the track, I still think that stall 11 may prove to be unlucky as Taqleed’s overall running style shapes as a need to lead horse and with other need to lead horses drawn low, unless that tank of energy is of  ”group” quality then there are a few factors siding against taking a shortish price about Taqleed. As I write this entry there are informed comments about Taqleed’s ability on the going (good) and the price/volume chart on betfair is trending upwards as well.

As always all of the doubts in the world about a horse count for nothing if the horse is the class of the field but if the market speaks against the chances of Taqleed, Gunner Lindley, Irish Heartbeat, Tartan Gigha and dark horse Light From Mars will form my shortlist against the field (dependent on market prices near the off).

As the show piece event of the All Weather season, I would consider the All Weather Derby meeting my “Cheltenham”. With that I would travel from the West Country with pockets armed with cash for my annual assault on the Lingfield shrewdnista such as Barry Denis et al.

Alas, this year I am visiting my daughter who is studying in London. Along with public transport issues which would have resulted in a four hour journey to and from Bath, I plan to watch the race from one the many bookies on Tooting high street.

As is my approach, I won’t bore you with my thoughts on runners and riders. Racingbase has posted and excellent write up with views that are aligned to my own per my tissue below

With minimal difference between my opinion and the market, my value add (and angle) into this race is based on a combination of pace, statistics and a smattering of intuition.

The stats indicate 1m 2F race distance unlike other distances at Lingfield affords an advantage to horses that like to run prominently. Historical results suggest that this fact is true even for recent winners of the Winter Derby:

Year	Winner	Early Pace Comment
1998	Running Stag	Steady headway over 4f out
1999	Supreme Sound	Tracked leaders
2000	Zanay	Led for 1f
2001	Sergeant York	With leaders
2002	Adiemus	Held up in rear
2003	Parasol	Made all
2004	Caluki	Prominent
2005	Eccentric	Given soft lead, made all
2006	Sri Diamond	Always in touch
2007	Gentleman's Deal	Set slow pace 4f
2008	Hattan	Chased leaders
2009	Scintillo	Held up in touch
2010	Tranquil Tiger	Broke well, led until over 8f out

What leaped off the A4 sheet of paper last night during pace analysis was that there is minimal pace in this race with only two runners with a liking for leading the pack; the filly Pachattack and veteran Suits Me.

From what I have observed in the previous renewals of this race, we do need to consider a pace duel ensuing however, the close proximity of the starting gates to the first bend suggest that whoever breaks well and gets out first will be able to run their race/pace to suit and the one(s) behind in the “slot” is also well positioned for the sprint off the final bend. Lingfield is notorious for runners coming from behind and swooping home at the finishing line but in this race, I suggest in-running punters reading this blog focus on horses that are leading.

My comment about the closeness of the first bend suggests that draw is important and the facts speaks for themselves based on previous results.

Horses drawn 1 to 7: 7-10-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 3-10-63

And there lies the rub given the draw of hot favourite Nideeb. From stall 3 he can sit behind Pachattack and Suits Me and let them both eyeball each other around the circuit. I wouldn’t say Nideeb is bullet proof, but his profile suggests that he is the class of what is a very poor renewal of the Winter Derby.

I have already nailed my colours to the mast with an “all in” bet on Pachattack. However given the race conditions I am forced to concede to the fact that Nideeb is a legitimate favourite and bet accordingly

Selections

• Pachattack (taken William Hills @ 11/2)

Exacta

A. Nideeb
B. Pachattack
C. Dansili Dancer
D. Nice Style
E. Suits Me

A over CDE exacta (3 lines 2 pts per line)
BC over ABCDE exacta (8 lines 0.5 pts per line)

My words in response to Mr X who is attending the Cheltenham’s Gold Cup day on a works outing Friday

Twig hopping in not a major betting medium for me

However, I must confess to a few speculative lay bets on over hyped favourites during festival week, D – for betting discipline but hey, I’m in positive territory.

Let’s see if we can blow hard earned profits on the Gold Cup.

I won’t bore you with my approach to this race; suffice to say that matching each runner against historical standards and a bit of investigative logic soughted contenders from non contenders.

With the bookies offering some juicy wagering incentives on Imperial Commander; I can only conclude that “they” {the bookies} want to get him beat and “their” handicappers, odds compliers , psychologists et al must suspect that he’s vulnerable and therefore a prime target for swelling their satchel’s with punter readies.

So the question remains, who will beat him?

Ignoring the obvious in Denman and Kauto Star my three against the field are

• China Rock
• Kempes
• Pandorama

Although later than normal due to weather conditions, tis time to renew my love affair with this event. So, what type of horse is needed to win this race?

1. An ability to stay longer than the mothering law
2. A warthog esc love of testing conditions
3. A feather weight burden

I won’t bore you with a horse by horse description for each runner as there are multitudes of reviews available on the web. In essence and my angle into the Welsh Grand National are statistics and a smattering of help using Dosage.

Order of preference; Maktu who ticks too many boxes and a serious contender (I’ve punted accordingly) and Exmoor Ranger who in my opinion is suited to the step up in trip.

The favourite in this race (1-5-11) has won just 1 of the last 10 and shows a level stakes loss of 5.67, even so the chances of Synchronised cannot be overlooked. So he’ll take the top slot in a saver Exacta with the above mentioned plus Watamu Bay.

Its been a while since I punted in one of these impossible to fathom heritage handicaps so thought I would throw the ratings at todays Cesarewitch.

For a race over 2m2f you would think that the draw bias is not a factor. Wrong

• Horses drawn 1-16: 1-12-160
• Horses drawn 17+: 9-18-172
• 7 of the last 9 winners were drawn 23 or higher.

The reason is best described in the following comments from the Betfair Forum

Until a few years ago I would have been likely to doubt the sanity of someone worrying about the draw in a 18 furlong race – it makes no sense. However its the single turn at the 10 furlong pole that stuffs the ones drawn out wide. They lose so much ground. If you are drawn high and drop your horse out the back on the inside, you have too much to do. if you are on the outside on the bend you are well stuffed. The only hope is to ride like Pat Eddery did when he won the Ebor on Give The Slip. break very smartly from the outside and get to the front and cross over to the rail Then slow the pace down to make up for the extra early effort. Sound easy – its not. The draw for the this race is basicall more important than for the Chester Cup or for the Stewards cup come to that. Sounds crazy – but its true bazzaar honest.

From a value perspective I have to have a small wager on Red Cadeaux and Admiral Barry even though their draw berths (5,7) are against them.

Of those draw high and are highly rated Precision Break, Swingkeel, Lang Shining, Deauville Flyer, Sentry Duty and La Vecchia Scuola are short listed with those in bold considered to be the most likely winners given all factors considered.

As I’ve written many a time, I’m like a moth to a flame in these bookie sponsored, impossible to fathom, 28 runner sprint handicaps.

The Stewards Cup has been run since the 1840 therefore there are plenty of facts and numbers for us stat heads to analyse. After crunching the numbers facts, my ratings  and figures I arrived at the following tissue for the race (18/1 bar).

The most over analysed (and some might say hyped) factor in this race is the draw. Along with the ground under normal circumstances this is the case. In spring handicaps it can come down to inches at the finish therefore we punters need to determine which horses have the assistance of any draw bias before the race and adjust our thinking accordingly.

However on straight courses, I am one that subscribes to the notion that the pace within the pace and the course pace bias dictates which side of the course has the advantage. Often I have listened to reporters who predict which side has the advantage based on the outcome a race ran under similar conditions earlier on the card which totally ignore the pace dynamics of the current race in question. They then go onto ruminate when a runner from the un-fancied side of the draw wins. Unfortunately Jockies make the same mistake and sometimes their perception of ground conditions and draw bias can ruin your well planned assult on the bookmaker.

Anyway, back to the subject at hand. The weight of historical evidence suggests that you need to be drawn high to win the Stewards Cup. In today’s race the majority of the pace within the race is drawn low so I’ll nail my colours to the mast and state that the low draw numbers should run better than expected as a consequence of today’s pace dynamic.

Previous renewals of this race suggest that the winner was “held up” for a late challenge. However in yesterdays consolidation race I noted that early speed held off any pace pressure from those behind (“speed carries” as the Americans would say). This matches my pace bias figures for this distance and I will err on the side of runners that like to run prominently.

Shortlisted (no surprises)

Jonny Mudball: Can’t help thinking that he recent win at Newcastle was aided by a massive draw bias. However has speed to burn and could be a group horse in handicap company.

Striking Spirit: Wokingham 2nd from draw biased stall. Low’ish draw today.

Genki: Last year’s winner, 6yo’s have a poor’ish record in this race.

Rileyskeepingfaith: Biggest problem, drawn in stall 15 right down the middle of the track. Dammed if he does dammed if he does not.

Palace Moon: Wokingham 3rd. Player with Mr Fallon on board.

Noverre To Go: 7th in the Wokingham, contender from a high draw

Bet

Noverre To Go and Jonny Mudball @ 8/1 or better,  Striking Spirit @ 11/1 or better

Result (= Gutted)

The above picture was taken in 2004 when I attended the Welsh Grand National to watch my anti post bet (14/1) on Silver Birch win at SP of 7/2. The following year I was everyone’s new best friend when tipping up L’Aventure at 14/1 (SP).

Although it’s been a barren event since, every year I always target this race as my one big National Hunt bet of the festive period.

Like all idiosyncratic UK race courses, Chepstow is a specialist track due to the undulating course configuration. It’s similar to Cheltenham in that not all horses like to jump uphill AND downhill. In addition when ground conditions are soft/heavy completing the race requires an abundance of stamina and some!

In recent years typically the winner of this race came from the bottom of the weights as it pays to carry a light burden around the mud over 3m 5f. However as Notre Pere and Halcon Genelardais reminded us  in 2008 and in 2006 the classier types at the top of the weights have ability which trumps weight when running against poor opposition.

Given their poor record in this event, any horse that ran in the Hennessey Gold Cup is an automatic elimination from consideration. Also, those that are aged greater than 9, without a racecourse run over 60 days or making their course reappearance.

With this in mind here are my thoughts on the short listed runners.

Le Beau Bai – With a recent win at this course on ground conditions that are likely to be repeated in the national. As the current market leader who in recent years have failed to live up to expectations his likely price is far too short but potential for a place spot/Exacta candidate.

The Tother One – Breeding negative (stamina)

Halcon Genelardais – The class of the field!

Silver By Nature – Slight breeding negative but will love the likely ground conditions. From a northern stable and their collective record in the race is poor. Triple negative is that he’s a likely front runner on a track that’s saps the strength of horses with this running style.

Operation Houdini – Irish raider and the Welsh National has been the target for the stable from day one. Ran over hurdles last time out to protect handicap mark.

Coe – Another who will love the predicted underfoot conditions. Not sure if there is enough improvement in the tank to take this race.

Conclusion
Halcon Genelardais would have been overlooked without a second thought as he has not won since his 2006 win in the Welsh Grand National. Also the recent runs of the Alan King stable have not lived up to standards of previous years. There may be a problem in the yard?

However my thoughts changed after watching Kauto Star bolt up in the King George on Boxing Day. Behind him (by a distance) were Madison Du Berlais (2nd) and Imperial Commander (5th). Both were both sucking on Kauto’s exhaust fumes when running in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on the 21st Nov. Behind them all was Halcon Genelardais.

He may not win this race but he has made the frame 7 times in his last 8 Class 1 Graded races and in my conclusion, banker material for a place spot in this company.

Operation Houdini is the stranger in the field. His trainer has had this race in mind for sometime and with Notre Pere’s win last year he feels there’s a big pot to plunder on this side of the Irish Sea. However I’m concerned that his jumping may let him down as he’s prone to the odd mistake and he may not have escaped the attention the handicapper.

Halcon Genelardais: split stake (20%/80% win/place) @ 10/1 generally
Operation Houdini: win @ 12/ 1 generally

a. Operation Houdini
b. Silver By Nature
c. Coe
d. Halcon Genelardais
e. Le Beau Bai

ABC over ABCDE exacta (12 lines)