It is not uncommon for punters to get unto a flap when a horse drifts. They begin to imagine all manner of horror stories, largely circulating around the prospect that their horse will not be doing its best. During our earlier form study we have already satisfied ourselves that we are on a trier, so there is no need for us to panic.

One Hundred Hints for Better Betting – Mark Cotton

Below is a good example of why you should bet once the crowd has had their say and let your tissue determine your final decision. My analysis of the race

Tissue

5/1 Regeneration, 11/2 Cape Rock, 13/2 Mishrif, 7/1 Clockmaker, 9/1 Quasi Congaree, 10/1 Totally Focussed

Analysis

Eddie Freemantle summed up Clockmaker’s recent race in post race comments on RacingUK; the form in the race (class 5 maiden) is nothing to get carried away with. A beaten favourite first time in handicap gets another black mark from me.

Concerns about Mishrif in respect to class and stamina doubts about Quasi Congaree leaves the front two in the tissue.

Non runners have changed the complexity of the race (and draw positions). As the main contenders that like to run up with the pace are drawn out wide, I’ve altered the tissue to reflect the fact that life is more difficult. I’ll watch the race to see what transpires but its looking like no value = not bet.

Market

Result

Take a look at Rapid’s City’s pre race odds.. Notice anything?

Also note the in race comments

steadied start, held up in rear, short of room over 6f out, soon pulled hard and headway over 5f out, tracked leaders over 3f out, soon ridden to challenge, weakened over 1f out opened 7/1 touched 12/1

I’m not crying foul, nope not me! My observation adds more weight my decision to benchmark my tissues against Corals (thanks Tooting). James Knight Coral’s odds complier is good. In fact he is extremely good at his job!

Here’s another observation/piece of evidence. In my trips to Corals bookies in Bath I recently noted a promotion on the favourite. In certain races Corals will “Jolly Up” the favourite i.e. offer enhanced odds to punters who wish to back “The Jolly”.

Ask yourself this question. Why would Corals offer better odds on the favourite than the pre race market to a shop packed to the rafters with favourite backers?

While tying to find betting angle in the 5.10 at Redcar today, discovered that Ladbrokes have joined the growing list of bookmakers that offer a best odds guaranteed promise

If you take a price when you place your bet, and the SP is bigger, we pay out on the bigger odds. This applies to both early prices and board prices on all UK and Irish horse racing. You cannot lose out by taking the price.

At first this looks like a great offer, however if you read the large print

Races on which this offer applies will include the Best Odds Guaranteed logo. This logo can also be seen on your betslip in your account history.

They left themselves some wiggle room to pick and choose when the offer applies. The Magic Sign aren’t stupid are they!

Bookies that offer unrestricted best odds guaranteed prices on all UK races are

• Bet365
• Paddy Power
• William Hill
• Boyle Sports
• Stan James

In a race where chaos reigns with maximum punter (and handicapper confusion), courtesy of Ladbrokes I’m able to while away the afternoon watching the footie and Cricket safe in the knowledge that if my if I’m right, my contrarian dutch in the 5.10 today should payout at best odds!