Slipperytoad

from punter to professional investor

When to Bet

Haven’t visited for a while, but there are some interesting threads on the Racing Forum discussing On Course Bookmakers and Pricing Your Own Tissue. In a strange way these topics are related.
The following comments from the bookmakers thread is revealing
Harry Findlay wrote yesterday in the RP.
‘I never back any of my horses or anyone else’s [...]

Expected Value

Though results have been positive, in review I was still backing (or bordering on backing) far too many underlays even though I added a 20% fudge factor to my fair odds prior to the race. It was time to hit the handicapping library to review the subject of expected value.
50% bonus is not the same [...]

Missed Opportunities

The Great Debate: Handicapping vs. Betting
There are two factors that go into playing the horses; handicapping and betting.
Some would say that these two factors are the same thing and that you can’t be good at one without being good at he other – and they’d be right. And that’s because with the takeout, most everything [...]

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