Top 10 Myths of Money Management and Betting Strategies
By Jim Kostas
1. “You can beat a race, but you can’t beat the races”
This phrase has become the rallying cry of losing horseplayers everywhere.However, nothing is further from the truth. While racing luck or unforeseen circumstances may prevent your “mortal lock” from winning each isolated event, sound handicapping and effective money management will enable you to beat this game over the long haul. Racing is the sole game in town conducted through “pari-mutuel wagering.” The phrase means “wagering among ourselves.” Unlike casinos, lotteries, and other forms of legalized gaming, racing has no pre-conceived set of odds or built-in “house advantage” that make long-term wining an impossibility. In pari-mutuel wagering the player is pitted against his/her fellow player. The “house/track” takes its cut for providing this service. Simply, if you can beat the guys next to you, you win.
2. “Don’t bet favorites, or horses less than 2-1″
While the concept of searching for “value” is pertinent, eliminating horses because they fall below some predetermined set of odds or because they are the public’s choice is not grounded in logic. The name of the game is betting on horses whose actual chances of winning (determined through your own handicapping judgment) are HIGHER than the odds reflected on the toteboard. For example, if your handicapping says that a horse has roughly a one in five (20 percent) chance of winning, and the toteboard reveals that your hero is being offered at 8-1 (12.5 percent), a wager is in order. Do not let the tote skew your thinking on what “value” is or isn’t. Value can come in the form of 6-5 or 20-1. It’s all based on the probability of your horse winning in relation to the corresponding odds offered by the totalisator.After all, how many of you wouldn’t take 6-5 on a randomcoin flip? You wouldn’t win every event (see #1), but long-term profits would ensue.
3. “Never bet on horses that are attempting something new in today’s race”
Anyone can read in DRF that a horse is five for six on the turf, or four for five at today’s distance. Their odds will suffer accordingly. Often times, “price plays” can be found using info that is not readily apparent to the majority. A little research may reveal that a certain sire’s offspring score at an amazing rate of 34 percent first time they try the grass. Or Trainer Jones has clicked with three of his last four first-timers sporting the same slow worktab. How about an even-running sprinter who’s not quick enough to “clear” a group of sprint specialists, but should appreciate today’s soft fractions when facing a bunch of plodding routers. If the price is right……
4. “A horse being offered at far above his morning line is always an ‘overlay’”
Remember, the morning line is set by a track handicapper who is trying to GUESS how he thinks the public will bet. Mistakes in his judgment, or underestimating or overestimating the crowd’s knowledge can lead to a flawed morning line. Once again, the key wagering decision factor is the comparison of your analysis of the race, with what is being offered at the windows. Only then, can true “overlays/underlays” be isolated.
5. “Always box your exactas”
A boxed exacta ticket always means at least one ripped-up ticket. A much better hedge play is a straight exacta, coupled with a quinella using the same horses. This offers protection should your top choice get nosed out by your second choice, with the chance of cashing both tickets. If you’ve no strong opinion between the horses, and cannot decide who should top your exactas, SKIP THE RACE. Chances are you have no significant “edge”
6. “Bet more when you’re winning, less when you’re losing”
Every player will encounter spells of seemingly losing every photo or nose-bob and, conversely, experiencing feelings of handicapping invincibility. DON’T let this affect your money management. The amount of the wager should be based SOLELY on your perceived edge in the upcoming event. If the bankroll gets so small you find yourself pinching on the “prime” opportunities, stop playing until the wallet becomes fat enough to resume normal money management.
7. “Follow the inside information and/or ‘late’ money”
While heavy or late action on a first-timer or a comebacker is often a good sign, remember one thing: The quickest way to riches in this game would be to find a way to legally open up shop and “book” the wagers of all trainers, jockeys and owners. Their understood complete lack of objectivity for the upcoming race translates to poor handicapping decisions. Talk to five jocks prior to the race, and you’ll hear touts for five “mortal locks.” Some analysis and a little hard work makes YOU the “insider.” Make your opinions and stick to them.
8. “A successful player must be on-track”
The subjective analysis of horseflesh is a difficult task and does require a player to be at the track should this be your specialty. However, the great thing about racing is that there are more than a few ways to “skin this cat.” Pace, figure, trip, or comprehensive handicappers can excel without the benefit of “being there.” Simulcasting greatly increases the volume of potential plays that would otherwise be missed should you solely concentrate on one circuit.
9. “The track has influence or a vested interest in what horse wins”
The effects a huge carryover can have on attendance and handle aside, the racetrack has NO care in the world who wins. The track takes its cut, posts the results, and pays out the exact amount of money regardless of who wins. A favorite winning means more people cash for less money. A longshot concentrates higher payoffs in fewer bettors’ hands.
10. “Racing is fixed”
While it’s naive to believe that racing is exempt from the occasional problem, there is simply too much money available in purses for a jock or trainer to throw it all away at a chance to cash a bet. If paranoia gets the best of you and precludes the ability to make a clear decision or watch a race objectively, QUIT BETTING.