The Life & Times of a Two Fisted Gambler
Removed the early chapters
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CHAPTER EIGHT
BET SMART.
THE thing to keep in mind at all times. Of all the betting shops I’ve ever been in, from the early dives to the places of today, there have been up to eight windows to put your bets on. I have never come across a bookie with more than one payout window.
The moral being more people lose than win.
Point two:- only bet for fun when you find a bookie who will take Monopoly money, (or pebbles), I don’t know what continent the country of monopoly is on but their currency looks crap!
Point three:- How many times have you said, “I was betting with the bookies money?” I haven’t used this expression since 1980 when an old timer rollicked me for saying it. As he pointed out. If you have drawn winnings and put the money in your pocket it is YOUR money. Don’t give it straight back.
Point four:- At one time I was an accredited trade advisor to a small African nation, (to cut a long story very short it ended when I left the country hidden in a hears. The finance minister…it was a military government…had invited me to take tea with him and placing his revolver on the table, (very well mannered, he kept it in its holster), and suggested we pay him $10,000 dollars a month.)…One of the projects we were working on with the Tourism Ministry was the development of Casinos…make it the Las Vegas of Africa. Though a friend we were invited to lunch by a major UK casino group to discuss the venture. The doors opened as we were finishing our meal and the undead started drifting in. These people never saw daylight…in the Casino all afternoon and evening. Like a posh bingo hall only the punters had better Jewellery and more of their own teeth.
The comment during our discussions that stuck in my mind was that the House take averaged 18% a night. No matter how much cash was changed into chips, no matter how many people were playing or how many big hitters were in town at the end of the night when winning chips were changed back to cash the casino were left with 18%. So constant is this factor that each casino would have a figure between 17.5% and 18.5%. If the return was out by more than 0.1% for more than one night then the bosses new that either a customer or croupier was on the fiddle.
The odds are stacked against you; it’s the same with the bookies. Although they often bet over round by more than 20% they aim to take out 10% in each race. So if you are losing less than 10% of your stakes you are doing well. If you are making 10% that’s excellent, if you are doing better than that then you will soon struggle to get your bets on.
I once checked back through three years formbooks, if you had backed all odds on shots, all even money horses, all 2-1s, all 10-1s the result was about the same…you would lose 10%.
The one weapon we have against the bookies is that they have to bet every race…we don’t. We can choose when to take them on.
The way to approach this is to lay your racing paper out in front of you. Starting with the main meeting and working your way through the other cards, cross out the two year old races, (at least until the Derby meeting by which time you start to get a build up of form – even then if the bigger stables, who have late maturing types, have three or four debutants in the race do not bet). Don’t waste time trying to find the winner of these races…its like trying to solve a crossword without any clues. Ignore any reports of ‘this ones chasing the pigeons at home’ or ‘burning up the gallops’. Wait until they’ve got proven form on the track.
Next cross out races for amateur riders, apprentices, conditionals, ladies or any novelty races. Next to go are Class F & G sellers and claimers, (except on the all weather where different rules apply), the quality of horses in these races is so low that even if they have form they can not be relied upon to run to form again.
That’s another point, don’t apply all weather form to the turf and vice-versa, unless the horse is proven on both and even then tred cautiously.
Hopefully you will still have two or three races on a card to go at so, cross out any race with fewer than six runners. It is unlikely that you will get a true run race…it will end up a tactical affair and who knows what tactics will apply? Also cross out any race with more than fourteen runners. Even if the draw doesn’t have any effect in a big field you risk your selection having traffic problems.
If there are any races left cross out all the horses except for the first five in the betting in non-handicaps and the first six in handicaps. A huge percentage of winners come from this area. Then concentrate on the form of those five or six. If you cant find the winner from them then cross out that race as well.
Some professionals will only bet in non-handicaps as horses are more likely to give a true running as there is no incentive to run down the field to get a few pounds off.
If there is an extreme of going, i.e. hard – firm – heavy then only back horses with a proven record under the conditions.
If you cant find a few solid bets then don’t bet. If you want to bet for ‘fun’ or an ‘interest’ then be your own bookie…write your bet out, this is important because its easy after a race to kid ourselves that we fancied a certain horse or we would have backed it…probably thought that about half the field…commit yourself, write a bet out. Check afterwards whether you would have won or lost. After a while, if you don’t start betting smart, I think you might get my point.
There is no such thing as the law of averages. If you toss a coin 100 times and it comes down heads the chances of tails the next time are not 1-100, they are evens. At the end of a time frame heads and tails will come up an equal number of times. But that time frame can be a thousand tosses, 10,000, 100,000, 100,000,000. So don’t chase losses thinking that the law of averages says you will have a winner sooner or later. A pro-betting acquaintance of mine has had fourteen seconds in a row. He just broke the sequence..his fifteenth bet came third. If you have used the same criteria for all your selections one day and the first three horses haven’t been placed then walk away. There is a flaw in your selection process; you weren’t in the right frame of mind or whatever. But if your process has produced three losers it is likely the others will lose. Give up for the day.
Don’t follow horses out of sentiment. How many have you followed all season just because you backed them last time? They may eventually win, but you can guarantee that you won’t be on when they do. So you might as well not follow them in the first place. Treat every race on its own merits.
Remember that horses are flesh and blood, they are not machines. Don’t expect them to run the same every time the race and remember that there are other horses involved and anything can happen in racing. I remember a horse of Ron Hodges, (who liked a gamble), I had been watching it for a while and it looked like it was being plotted up. It was entered in a race at Royal Ascot and I checked the form, had won over course and distance, had come down a few pounds, and had an apprentice on who had won on it before taking off a few more pounds. Was given a plum draw two places off the rails, going was right, opened up at 12s or 10s, started drifting in nicely and I got on bigtime at 6s. The stalls opened and they jumped out, the horse next-door ran into it, another two strides and the horse bumped it again. The other horses had gone a furlong and disappeared over the horizon with my dosh!!
CHAPTER NINE
This might sound silly but the secret to successful punting is to stop backing losers. I can find winners easily enough, most days, but it’s the losers that drag down my profit. So how can you reduce the losers? It’s not easy. One way is to get yourself a notebook or ledger. BEFORE you place your bet write it down in the ledger and alongside write why you are backing that horse. If you can’t think of a reason to write down then you need to ask yourself why you are prepared to part with good money backing it. At the end of the day write the prices of any winners.
On a regular basis go back through the ledger. See if there’s a pattern to the winners and losers. Is one of your selection criteria costing you money?
Better still use your ledger to keep account of your betting…as you would any business. Did you show a profit for the last month or were your losses more than you realise. If you lost, then how much? How many hours did you have to work to earn that money?
This is a difficult exercise for anyone to do. It’s very painful to face what our hobby costs us. Ask anyone in the betting shop how they do and 99% will tell you they do all right, on average they break even. They are kidding nobody but themselves. All you have to do is look at the bookie’s profits. So far this year I’m just over £800 up. I know because it’s in my ledger.
I was a few quid down in January, made a lot in February, got off to a good start in March and then got walloped by Cheltenham. Cut my stakes for the rest of March and clawed a bit back. I keep separate accounts for when I go racing. I had an excellent two days racing in January…well up…one winning day and a losing day in February and lost £400 at Cheltenham. I’m still £460 up on paper but as I give half my winnings from racing days to an orphanage in India, and don’t deduct any losing days, so I’m a bit out of pocket but I’ve managed to feed 2000 kids for a few days.
Try keeping a ledger for four weeks. Start immediately. Don’t put it off to the end of the month or you’ll forget and kid yourself that you’ll start it the month after. Then you’ll never get around to it. Most of you who do start won’t make it to the end of the month. As I said it’s a painful exercise. Unless your journal shows you are making a profit you wont carry the journal through to the second four-week period. In which case you will go on being a mug punter. I’m giving the advice put I still make mug bets. How often do you ask yourself after a losing race ‘why did I back that?’ or I knew the one that beat mine would do that.’ The secret is to ask your self these questions before you part with cash. Why am I backing this one?
The purpose of this series of articles has been to help you to reduce the gambles you take so that you start betting for profit. It takes a lot of discipline to achieve this but it can be done. I can’t keep to it all the time. I’m getting better but I still have too many bets for the sake of it. Especially when there’s racing on the telly. I have to have a bet ‘for interest’.
I hope these snippets have been useful but to make it worth my while do try and put the main ideas into practice. To summarise the main points: –
1-More punters lose than win.
2-Don’t bet for fun, but have fun betting.
3-Don’t bet with ‘the bookies money’. Once it is in your pocket it’s YOUR money.
4-The bookies have to bet in every race. You don’t. Pick and choose which races to take them on.
5-Bet only in races with between 6 and 14 runners
6-Concentrate on the first 5 or 6 in the betting.
7-If you can’t find a solid bet then don’t bet on a half chance.
8-Always bet level stakes…if you’ve had a couple of winners don’t double your stakes because ‘your lucks in’. There is no quicker way to give it all back.
9-Never chase losses.
10-Be disciplined.
11-Keep a ledger.
12-Refine your selection process.
And on no account pay for tips or information. If you follow my advice and work diligently at it then you’ll find more winners than any tipster could sell you.
A few short cuts to help if you don’t have time to read form properly.
Newspaper Tipsters. By and large they have a poor strike rate and following them is a quick way to the poor house. But: – using Newsboy and Bouverie in the Daily Mirror…if they select the same horse and it is also Spotform’s choice then it is a selection. If Top Speed or Top Form or Northern Correspondent picks it as well then it is a banker. The prices aren’t brilliant but it has a good strike rate. Likewise the two tipsters in the Daily Mail and their rating guy and it also works with Post Data, Topspeed and Postmark in the racing post. If it is also the Spotlights selection then it is a banker.
Won Last Time Out a quick scan through the form in the Racing Post concentrating on horses that won last time out. If the race report says “Quickened away from the last” (jumps) or “quickened entering the final furlong,” (flat) the that indicates to me that the horse had a bit more left in the tank. Providing the horse under consideration isn’t taking a big step up in class or distance then it is a good bet.
Second Last Time Out scan though the form pages again, this time concentrating on those that came second last time out. If a horse got beat by less than a length on the flat and the first two finished more than five lengths clear of the rest then it is a selection, (over the sticks if it came second by less than three lengths and they finished fifteen or more lengths clear). But it is only a bet if the second horse came from behind. If it led and was headed then no bet. Again there has to be no material difference between the race it came second in and the one you are considering backing it in.
In The First Three Last Time Out scan through the form pages again looking at horses that won or finished a close up second or third and if the race report says it was hindered or had to be switched, (a manoeuvre that can take a bit out of a horse), then again it is an indication that it had a bit more to spare
Listen To The Bookies when you go to the races. First find the true Bookmakers…they’re in the front rank and at most meetings you’ll only find two or three of them. Barry Denis is always worth watching. They are the real guys who make the book… the others follow their prices. Mind you it’s easier to balance a book now that they’ve all got computers…In the old days, (about two years ago), the good bookies could do it in their head. Top mathematicians although most of them wouldn’t know what you were talking about. Mathematics…Nar I’m just a bookmaker. Anyway listen to them…are they shouting 5/4 the favourite or 3/1 the field? Are they trying to tempt shekels onto the favourite or the rest? In effect they are telling you whether they think a favourites going to win. If they’re calling the favourite and holding the price…rubbing it off and writing the same price back up do you think they expect it to win? They’re not always right but if you’re thinking of backing a favourite that you think is a cert shouldn’t you be a bit concerned that the experts are happy to take your bet?
Ignore it if you see someone running down the line of bookies putting £200 or so on with all of them. That’s somebody working for one of the big bookies laying off liabilities to shorten a price. Doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to win.
When you’re in the bookies look at the pattern of the betting on a race. If the favourites, say, 7/4 and two or three others are shortening and the Jolly is still ‘coming in’, that would suggest there’s still smart money for it. Likewise when nothing else is moving in and the favourites slipping out a touch the bookies are inviting money for it. Best of all is when everything moves out a bit except one horse…holds rock steady. Means there’s smart money going on it quietly. Wait until near the off, in case it does move, then nip on.
There’s a lot more to it than that and only hundreds of hours of hanging around joints. If you don’t have time to watch the pattern don’t worry. But if you’re spending an afternoon in there pay attention to the betting pattern between races and make a little note of what happened and how the horses ran.
These are just a few short cuts to help in the short term but you absolutely have to learn to not just read form but also read between the lines. Unfortunately there’s no quick way of learning.
I’ve used many methods and systems over the years…none of them give a good return on a consistent basis. Most of them are too rigid and the day you miss is the day it pays off…sods law. You daren’t leave a selection out, no matter how unlikely a winner the horse looks. Even systems that half work can have their profits decimated by the old Equinine Virus…’the cough’. I reckon it was invented by bookies to introduce a random effect and ruin systems. Prolonged periods of bad weather don’t help either and half a dozen missed winners can ruin a systems performance.
Having said that I don’t use a system I do employ a systematic approach to making my selections. More of a routine I suppose.
Find yourself a ratings compiler you are comfortable with, Raceform, Timeform, whoever. Stick with them, don’t chop and change, that way you get used to their nuances.
I don’t keep lists of horses to back in future I take each race on its merits at the time. When I used the Raceform ratings I used to read through the book on the day it arrived and copy favourable comments about horses into a card index. Trouble was it used to take me over an hour a night to go through the index. You always end up missing the winners or back horses out of sentiment that are never going to win.
I use the online Racing Post. I look at Postmarks ratings and write down the top six or seven rated…up to about those ranked 10lbs below the top rated. Ten pounds is about the most you would expect a horse to improve.
Then look at the Spotlight comments. The main criteria are will the horse act on the going? Is the distance suitable? How will it run on this type of Track? If a handicap then how does its weight today compare with what its carried in the past? If it’s a flat race then what effect will the draw have? Is the jockey competent, or has an experienced rider replaced a claimer? But most of all I’m looking for a comment that says the horse “will improve”, “should improve”, “can improve”, “ought to improve” or is progressive, in that order of priority. If the top rated horse shows up as an improver then it is a banker…. obviously if you are using reliable ratings, which Postmark are, and the horse is clear top and improving then it has to be a good bet and more so if the going/trip/track criteria are met.
I rely on Postmark to give an accurate figure for what the horse HAS achieved. I’m looking through the form of its last two or three runs to see what extra it MIGHT achieve.
This is the basics of how I make selections. The refinement comes from thirty years of racing and listening to the advice of other punters.
Having the form on line certainly helps. I assume you all know where to find www.racing-post.co.uk, but there may be some areas you are not familiar with. Go to the home page from the menu on the left click on “print outs”. When the page opens change the date at the top to the one you want the cards for and click go, (unless they are already on display of course.). For each meeting you will see a row for “Spotlights” go to the right hand end and click on “whole meeting”…this usually takes half a minute to load and for some reason a dialogue box always pops up, at least on my system. Click ‘yes’ or ‘cancel’…it doesn’t matter which.
I normally save the Spotlights to my racing file and print them off later, (Gives me time to at least sit with the family whilst I’m studying, even if I’m busy writing notes at least I’m in the room with them).
[A tip for printing…open the file….click on view..click on type size…click on smallest…{remember to change it back when you’ve finished or you get miniscule print when you go back on line}..then click on file and click on print. When the dialogue box opens click on the properties button…when the page opens click in’ black’ button and in the ‘custom’ button. then click on the menu tab to the right and select economy. Saves a lot of printing time, ink and paper]
So after listing the top few in each race I return to the form pages, go into Racing Post again…access the print outs page again, this time select the “Cards” row and click on “whole meeting” again. When the race card opens up…using your short list go through the horses for the day….click on their name on the card and you will see a list of all their runs…you will notice a heading ”winning form” click on that and it does what it says…deletes the losing runs, (would that we all could so easily). Click again on “lifetime form” and you go back to the original page…on the right you can see how its been going in the ratings…quite useful in itself. In the centre near the top you will see the heading “outcome” and below that the name of the horse that won or if yours won the name of the horse it beat. Click on that and you get taken to an analysis of the race…you may need to scroll down if there were a few runners as the comments are under the result.
What you are looking for here are positive comments was it a good quality race, was it a poor race, what is the value of the form, was it run at a false pace and the form is unreliable? Then seek out comments such as “will win again”, “will be better for this run”, “can defy a penalty”, “on a winning mark”, and conversely negative remarks along the same lines. This helps to build a picture. The ‘analysis’ comments are only recorded for the horses that run well, (or favourites that ran exceptionally badly), by and large if there’s not comment shown for your horse then its not running into form yet.
You will also see on this page, on the left above the results, a title “comments in running”…clicking on this opens up a box with ‘comments in running’ for all the runners in the race, [sometimes there is a problem with this page and it opens up the front page of the Racing Post instead…. If this happens just close the box and move on], handy if yours doesn’t have a mention in the analysis…a quick look at the race comments will at least tell you why. In this section look for comments like “quickened away from the last / entering the final furlong” etc
It normally takes me about ten minutes a race….less sometimes. I never look at the price of the horses until I have completed my selection process. If something is looks outstandingly clear I double check to make sure I haven’t missed something obvious.
So by the time I’ve gone through this exercise I should have notes on the main protagonists in a race showing what they have achieved, what they might achieve, the likelihood of their achieving it on the track/trip/going/handicap mark and have the views of three experts…Spotlight, Race Analysis, Comments in Running.
All this is for free! I would say Spotlights and Postmark give you at least 90% of what you would pay Raceform or Timeform for.
In retrospect having written the above I don’t think I go into the comments enough and need to tighten up my own procedures. We can all learn.
If you don’t have enough time to cover all the days cards then start with the main one, where you can expect better horses and more reliable form, and work through as far as you can. Remember you are not looking for the winner of every race. You are trying to cut down on the losers.
Finally, when you go through your ledger look at the reasons why you backed a horse. Then going into the Racing post printouts page again…change the date to the day your horses ran…lets say 2.30 Ascot 13th April….on the row for Results…click on that race time and the analysis page will open up…you can then compare, win or lose, why you thought a horse would win and what actually happened. If this doesn’t stop you backing losers and help find more winners nothing else will.
Well I think that’s the end of my epistle. I would remind you I’m no less of a mug punter than you are…I’m just more experienced at losing.
Hope you’ve enjoyed reading as much as I have writing.
Good Hunting