PEARLS OF WISDOM

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy from cdsystems
http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.1…..

The main difference between a professional punter and an amateur is that the professional spends less time and effort looking for winners and more time looking for prices. That is the aspect of betting on which you must concentrate if you are ever to become professional.

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.2…..

The best bet in a race is not necessarily the most likely winner. Given two options on the roll of a dice, ‘any number over two’ and ‘any number below three’, the first option is the likeliest winner, but, at odds of 2/5 and 5/2 respectively, it would be the worst bet of the two.

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.3…..

Sequences, both good and bad, are an unavoidable part of betting. Yet, whatever your current sequence may be, it does not in any way affect the chance of your next bet. The fact that you have either won or lost your last seven bets does not give your eighth any more or less chance than it already has.

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.4…..

The next time that you are tempted to bet a big priced runner each-way remember that a 20/1 runner-up, when supported each-way at fifth odds, pays only the same as a 6/4 winner. Under such circumstances a stake of one point each-way would return you just five points for your total outlay of two points, equating to odds of only 6/4.

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.5…..

The effect of additional weight is greatly negated on tight horse racing tracks. The horses are continually running around bends and never get into the prolonged straight gallop where extra weight would tell. On such tracks we would therefore expect those at the top of the handicap to do well, and that is the case, as can be seen from the results of the Topweights System.

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.6…..

He will price up the race himself before the markets open…..if he can’t get the price he wants he won’t even have a penny on, no matter how much of a good thing he thinks the horse is. Terry Ramsden describing the key to the success of legendary punter J. P. McManus.

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.7…..

Don’t worry about losing sequences, expect them. Provided your bets are made at a bigger price than they really should be you will come out on top. A couple of 7/1 winners at either end of a losing sequence of 28 will return just as much as another series of 32 bets, all made at even money, with an alternate win-lose pattern, and comprising losing sequences of no more than one.

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.8…..

As a professional you need to understand that you are betting against other punters and not against a bookmaker. Terms such as ‘beat the bookie’ and players who refer to bookmakers as ‘the enemy’ don’t reflect the mechanics of betting. Your ‘enemies’ are your fellow punters, and the bookmaker provides a service through which you compete with them.

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.9…..

‘In-form’ and ‘out-of-form’ can be misleading terms in racing. A trainer can hit a 50% strike rate but if his winners are odds-on it doesn’t mean he is ‘in-form’. A jockey can ride a dozen no-hopers but it doesn’t mean he is ‘out-of-form’. To get a true idea of whether someone is ‘in-form’ we need to compare strike rate against price (actual success against expectation of success).

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.10…..

For some reason punters tend to stake more than normal on the big meetings. The truth is that high value bets are more difficult to find in races where there are more serious contenders. The seasoned professional maintains an ingrained discipline at these times. If you are operating with a fixed staking method from a pre-prepared betting bank this is a potential pitfall which will be avoided.

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.11…..

Take regular breaks from betting. It helps you keep everything in perspective and gives you time to analyse your performance. Taking time out is especially important when you are deep into a significant sequence of results, and that applies equally whether it be a positive sequence or a negative one.

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.12…..

When properly controlled, professional betting is a very attractive form of investment. It is vital that you have a betting bank set up specifically for the purpose. The size of your bank should be, at the very least, equivalent to the longest losing run you can mathematically expect multiplied by your maximum stake, and ideally you should also have a reserve bank of the same amount. That way you will remain in control throughout the period of your investment.

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.13…..

To have any idea whether you are obtaining value for your bet, you must be able to price up an event yourself. You have to be able to express your opinions in numeric terms in order to compare them with the opinions of the layers. Merely attempting to select winners is not enough and will get you nowhere in the long term.

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.14…..

Would you do your shopping without taking notice of the prices on the shelves? When shopping you normally decide, before you set out, how much money to take and what you expect to get for that money. If you can’t get it you don’t part with your cash. Similar rules apply to betting.

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.15…..

Spending too long studying a race is often worse than not spending long enough. If you continue to study once you feel comfortable about a selection you can become immobilised to the extent that, even if you do change your mind, you cannot possibly feel happy about doing so.

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.16…..

Any method which relies purely on picking winners is both fraught with danger and incomplete. Staking to optimise returns and the awareness of mathematically determined sequences are both equally vital.

…..Pearls of Wisdom…..No.17…..

Inside information is useful in that it can highlight the fact that a horse is fit and ready to run to the best of its ability. However, to gain any real benefit from that knowledge we need to be fully aware of the strength of the opposition. This is often only possible through detailed form study.