by Slipperytoad

The aim of this project is to develop a process for profitable success in “lesser of evil” race types.

Typically these race types are BHB graded 5/6/7. In terms of past performances as Cramer would say “there is nothing to be loved” as the horses running at this level are inconsistent and typify the “level of incompetence” factor which, in the business world, is known as The Peter Principle. This principle simply says that all managers will keep getting promoted until they reach a level at which they are no longer competent. For horses at this level their limited abilities keep them anchored to the lower levels of the BHB ratings.

Unfortunately, low grade races make up the majority of the midweek races on offer to punters. In my opinion the main motivation for such lowly fare is analogous to a drug dealer who profits from being the middle man between an addict and their drug habit.

The BHB in collusion with the bookmakers provide races to punters which allow them to feed their gambling habits by conveniently arranging a horse racing program of grade 5/6/7 handicaps, claimers, sellers, classified events. Either punters don’t care or are unaware of the fact, these races contain a population of unreliable horses that when brought together form lesser of evils races.

Using the computer idiom “garbage in” equals “garbage out”, naturally these races are chaotic events and thereby unpredictable when trying to determine the outcome; hence the race category “lesser of evil”. Punters lose but their payoff is a fix for their incurable gambling habit, the BHB (via the levy) and bookmakers profit at the expense of punters. A virtuous circle!

So why bet in these race types?

In short my observations indicate that the potential wins and exotic payoffs in these race types are massive. When the results are unpredictable, the market reflects this in the odds and in terms of value (which basically means getting more for your investment given the risk) lesser of evils races are potentially a rich vein of profits.

To handicap these races I think Alan Potts had the right idea in the title of his book “Against the Crowd”. Whatever method the crowd is using when analysing lesser of evils races, their logic is flawed. “they” (the crowd) approach these races in a conventional manner when a “contrarian” or “unconventional” approach is applicable to lesser of evils races.

Here are my research notes on these races

Before accessing the individual horses, is it wise to determine if the race is “contentious”, “chaos” or “orderly” as most grade 5/6/7 races fall into one or more of these categories.

The last category, orderly races, is relatively easy to play. They are characterized by one, two or three standout horses. In this race category, you merely bet on one horse if it is an overlay or two horses if the payoffs permit a profitable two horse win bet. Chaos and contentious races, on the other hand, present a more complex set of betting decisions.

Contentious races will generally have a lot of contenders, such as 5 to 7 contenders in a twelve horse field. Also, and perhaps most important, the BHB ratings for the contenders will be bunched in a narrow range. Here are some samples ratings that you might see:

A) 35 21 19 12
B) 38 35 18 11
C) 22 20 20 18 16 15

Example “A” has a single standout horse. Example “B” has two standout horses. Example “C” is a contentious race with no standout horse or horses. Notice how the ratings in example “C” are all bunched in a narrow range. This is always characteristic of contentious races. Analogous to a golf tournament full of Tiger Woods! Which one is going to win given that they have virtually the same talents?

Another dead giveaway of a contentious event is when the race is earmarked as a ‘tricast’ race by our friends the bookmakers. Ask yourself this question. Why would a bookmaker offer enhanced betting conditions to a punter in a race?

A chaos race is, very simply, a race where no horse in the race has demonstrated the ability to run to today’s par. Typically these are selling/claiming races and analogous to a field of donkeys from Western Super Mare beach.

You also need to classify the crowd favourite as legitimate, slightly vulnerable, highly vulnerable or false. This helps us determine if we will pass or play a race. If the favourite is legitimate, you should, with some limited exceptions, pass the race. The reason we pass almost all races with a legitimate favourite is because the payoffs just do not support any kind of a profitable wagering approach.

If the favourite is “vulnerable”, it is most likely a playable race. The degree of vulnerability will dictate the size of bet and the way a final bet is structured i.e. win, exacta or trifecta. Typically favourites in grade 5/6/7 races are vulnerable, highly vulnerable or false and are poor value.

Conventional handicapping such as position last time out, trainer/jockey form, changes up/down in grade between class 7 and class 5, horses out of the handicap etc etc does not apply in lesser of evils races. As mentioned above there are no hidden clues in the past performances of any of the contenders. Usually the crowd selects the horse with the least negatives (or lesser of evils) and already stated above this is flawed logic in this race category.

So what does work?

Prior to the race some very basic handicapping needs to be undertaken to ensure fundamental factors are considered such as the horses’ suitability to distance/surface, current form and class/ability level. If the horse has already proven (and the chances are it already has) that it is not suited to the conditions of the race i.e preference for fibresand over polytrack, preference for 5 furlong races and the race is being contested over a mile; then the horse can be removed from any consideration.

However this comment needs to be tempered with the fact that horses running at this level are much in a much-ness. It can be dangerous to the betting bank to assume or dismiss a horse on one factor at this level!

Typically the winner in a lesser of evils event is the horse best suited to the conditions of the race and not one that outclass their rivals.

The lower the grade of racing the more important recent activity is. However there is a dialectic (logical opposite); strangers!

When there is a horse entered in the field that is not a proven loser at this level, dropped in grade or long absent runner, dismiss their chances at your peril! The Betfair market (see below) is a good indicator to their chances hence “strangers” need to be identified in pre race analysis.

Quote:
Handicappers are forever trying to surmise the pecking order among horses. While in the broad sense there is such a thing, it nevertheless remains a fact that horses of approximately the same class will often take turns beating each other over the course of a meeting. Whether this can be attributed to trips, trainer intent, or simply variations in the form cycle, the handicapper must proceed cautiously. When a field like this gathers, the wise handicapper often turns to the “stranger” in the field, the horse dropping down from a higher classification, shipping in from a neighbouring track or freshened recently. It would prove far too difficult to try to separate “regulars”, one from the other. They look too much alike. “Strangers” are unknown quantities, at least to some extent, and often go postward at decent odds as a result. If a reasonable case can be made for one of them, they may be the players only possible recourse in a field filled with “look-alikes”

“Thoroughbred Handicapping – State of the Art” - William Quirin

Take my word for it. If you can identify the horse that is “different” from the rest in a lesser of evils race and the stranger receives market support, then is time to unload the wallet..

Private ratings (allied with very basic handicapping) allow you to quickly assess the chances of each runner at the weights. If the horse cannot run and has never run par for the grade then no matter how lively it is in the market it cannot win period! This comment suggests that lesser of evil 3yo+ handicaps are best suited to ratings.

An accurate assessment of the chances of each contender can be found on Betfair.

In assessing market movements the opinion of the crowd is to be respected however they (the crowd) can be utterly stupid when lumping on the so called “good thing” based on hearsay, confusion, chasing, group psychology, whispers or bookmaker inspired gambles. When the herd moves into a stampede it usually a good indication that the lemmings are moving toward a cliff and time to go in the other direction!

Recently I read an interesting article on the makeup of public opinion. Outside the subset of lemmings there is a group of very shrewd punters or those “in the know” whose opinion should also be respected. If we consider the trainer/stable and professional gamblers as the “informed” minority, their opinion is also reflected in the market price.

In a world of constant market fluctuations as information (good or bad) is factored, creating a tissue for lesser of evil race types is a fruitless exercise. As I’ve stressed a number of times, past performances provide no hidden clues in assessing future performance (like my endowment policy) and therefore provide no foundation for odds compilation. This fact was confirmed on a well known forum by the odds complier for one of the big high street bookmakers. Similar to the method used by bookmakers in low grade events I conclude its better to let the market determine the likely contenders.

Within the betting market, price movements fail into these categories. The “will of the crowd”, “informed money” or bookmakers shortening their liabilities or a combination of all three!

A “drifter” is a horse whose price moves out by more than 20 per cent during the final five minutes before the official start time of each race, and a “steamer” as a horse for whom the reverse was true, Betfair claimed: “The analysis from every runner in 1,864 races over the summer and autumn of 2004 shows categorically that punters who bet on horses that drift in the betting in the final five minutes do better than those who bet on horses that shorten in the market.” Athough this maxim applies in lesser of evils races;

In a lesser of evils race, when a horse drifts dramatically on the exchanges it invariably fails to perform and a consequence can be dismissed from consideration most of the time.

Typically drifts (positive or negative) occur in the last 15 minutes before the off and therefore any method for playing in these races must wait until this time period to asses the market “before” placing a bet.

Another good indicator of percentage probability of winning is the toteboard and there is a statistic I have found useful in determining likely win contenders.

So here’s the punch line based on the observations of many lesser of evils races..

There is one factor that is unique to all horse races and that is the pace match-up. All horse posses a particular running style and a combination of these running styles makes up the pace or “shape of the race”. When the race begins the “shape of the race” will determine the eventual winner.

In lesser of evils races, there are many horses that are one dimensional in their running style and predictably so. One paced plodders and speed balls that fade in the final furlog (though early pace in low grade races can prove to be a decisive advantage especially on the all weather) can usually be eliminated from consideration if the pace shape is against them. If the horse is basically “slow” in pace terms or gets taken on for the lead when it likes to dominate, no amount of money or the will of the crowd will ensure a positive result.

The race pace shape is unique to each race event and will never occur again. Will the winner be the early pace horse? Will the winner come from off the race? Will the draw bias aid or hinder? In my opinion race pace factor is undervalued by the public therefore an understanding of how the race will be run (including post position analysis) provides that all important edge when tackling lesser of evils races.