Published: 22/12/2003 (Racing Post Features) Mel Cullinan

1: You can win betting on sprint handicaps.
Far from being unfathomable, these events can be good betting mediums, particularly with fields of up to 16 runners. Paying attention to handicap marks is crucial.

2: Stamina is the key to the Derby.
The Derby is a good race to try to unravel since the market is largely governed by unreliable factors such as form over a mile and the horse’s trainer. Staying power is the single most important determinant in finding the winner.

3: Always identify and follow 7f specialists.
More than any other distance on the Flat, this is a specialist trip. Look for horses that excel at it.

4: Be wary of wide-margin winners.
Most punters simply love easy, wide-margin winners, but for the discerning there is often money to be made by opposing them. A horse’s chance should be assessed in the light of their overall career record, not one flashy success, to which the market often overreacts.

5: Unlucky last-time-out losers are often overbet.
Backers usually go overboard about a horse widely perceived to have been unlucky in a previous start. Take a more measured view of things - it’ll pay off long term.

6: Oppose selling-race winners in nurseries.
Year after year selling-race winners are raised in grade and, with last-time-out 1s beside their name, are popular in the betting. They usually fail.

7: A wide draw in a sprint handicap can be a plus.
Despite the seeming dictates of commonsense, results at some tight tracks - notably Bath and, to an extent, Pontefract - show that horses from outside draws have an advantage.

8: Follow top jockeys in big handicaps.
Jockeyship is a pivotal factor in the major Flat handicaps, especially at anything up to middle distances. When the emphasis is on split-second decisions, quick thinking, nerve and strength are crucial, and top riders win a high proportion of such races.

9: Recently gelded horses must be opposed.
A big negative often overlooked by both pundits and the betting public. Use the Racing Post’s Signposts feature to identify horses gelded since their last run, and cross them out if this is within the last four months or so as their training programme must have been interrupted.

10: Don’t underestimate big handicap form.
Follow top handicappers when they move to Listed and Group 3 level. There is no clear blue water between the top handicaps and Pattern races, yet the betting market often underestimates horses graduating from handicap company.

11: Beware ‘promising’ once-raced maidens.
Horses who run an eye-catching first race in defeat are often sent off at too short a price next time and should usually be avoided. Horses with a Timeform P to identify a progressive animal, frequently start at totally unrealistic prices. They tend to be shockingly bad betting mediums.

12: Never bet in maiden handicaps.
There is no worse betting medium. It is virtually impossible to assess the majority of the runners, who, by definition, have usually been down the field in their previous outings. This is betting-shop fodder, best left alone.

13: Avoid Listed fillies’ races.
Highly dubious betting mediums that should be avoided. This type of race frequently throws up results that are difficult to fathom, with the form very hard to weigh up in hindsight (in fact avoid all fillies’ races - Toad)

14: Don’t ignore second strings in big races.
They win more than expected - often at inflated prices. Ignore the hype and make it pay.

15: Give Brighton a wide berth.
Near the top of the list of Flat tracks where backers should be wary. By and large, the results of all but the most uncompetitive races at Brighton are not conducive to rational analysis, with the course producing more than its share of difficult-to-fathom results. Other tracks offer better betting opportunities.

16: Follow apprentices in small-field sprints.
It generally makes sense not to take apprentice claims into account, but it can pay to make an exception in sprint handicaps of up to about 12 runners. These contests provide less of a tactical, decision-making test for apprentices than the cut-and-thrust of bigger fields.

17: Pay utmost respect to long-absent jumpers.
Many people dismiss a long-absent jumper out of hand, taking the view that a long break will count as a big negative, particularly in a stamina test over jumps. However, the sight of a horse coming back from a season off (or even longer) and winning first time back over jumps is a far from uncommon occurrence, much more so than on the Flat.

18: Autumn is time for best-fresh jumpers.
Every autumn, scores of horses win on their seasonal debut over jumps and lose their form to varying extents afterwards. Then they return the following season and win again first time out - frequently at decent prices thanks to their deteriorating form the previous season.

19: Oppose ex-pointers in novice hurdles.
Unless stamina is at a premium, it usually pays to oppose ex-pointers when they are up against horses with half-decent Flat or hurdles form in novice hurdles. Usually these types simply aren’t quick enough to win.

20: Look out for lower-profile trainers.
Apart from collateral form, the single biggest influence on a horse’s position in the betting is the identity of the trainer. This works two ways, inasmuch as runners from highly fashionable stables are usually heavily overbet, but it also gives us an angle, because some very capable trainers are underestimated.

21: Avoid long-distance chases in the mud.
Because staying power is far away the most important factor and heavily outweighs anything else, these races, particularly in testing ground, are simply too arduous for most four- and five-year-olds. The ground is a crucial proviso with this maxim - on good ground; marathon chases are actually an interesting betting medium.

22: Note top-weights in some jump handicaps.
This is one to note at lesser tracks especially in single-figure fields, which mean races are likely to be run at an ambling gallop early on, thus making easier the concession of weight. If the race in question is on a sharp track, so much the better. However, at the top tracks there is much less mileage in following the class.

23: Don’t rule out “ungenuine” horses.
Often these types win more than their share of races. Judge the horse on the facts of their career and win-record, not on a pre-conceived prejudice.

24: 2m handicap hurdles are good to bet on.
They are competitive enough to ensure a nice-priced winner more often than not and, usually being run at a true pace, the most deserving horse tends to win. Past form is also more reliable.

25: Avoid ageing chasers in decent handicaps.
They don’t win nearly as often as their younger counterparts, although they are often still worth considering over marathon distances.

26: Watch out for Chepstow.
A law unto itself - only back horses there that are proven on similarly very demanding and undulating tracks. Be wary of form achieved Uttoxeter, too.

27: Forgive a poor run at Towcester.
On soft ground the track can be so testing that it is simply beyond the capabilities of most horses to even finish their race there, so look out for something that may have been in contention for a long way or even possibly pulled up.

28: Avoid inexperienced horses over fences.
Forget about rumours of a horse schooling well - the demands of winning chases at racing pace are altogether different. Some winners will be missed but so will bucket loads of losers, including many at unfeasibly short prices.

29: Avoid young horses in staying hurdles.
These races, particularly in testing ground, are simply too arduous for most four and five year-olds but pay particular attention to a horse that can buck this trend