After many years of struggling with the practical (and psychological) aspects of punting I have determined that “Guerrilla Betting” is one method that can provide that all so important edge over bookmakers and fellow punters.

In summary it means “to be always on the lookout for situations when the enemy (the crowd) is weak and take advantage of the profitable betting opportunities they provide”. These are varied.

Examples are identifying an advantageous draw bias, favourable statistics or trends. Taking advantage of crowd hysteria, confusion or lack of knowledge in chaotic races. Unearthing a horse or team that has superior abilities compared to it rivals, specialisation, whatever. The point is to exploit any situation that can give you an edge over fellow punters.

It must be ego at work, but I think almost everyone who has set out to find a way to “beat the races” has hampered themselves right from the start. The reason?

Trying to beat the races rather than some subset of the races, like dirt sprints, maiden claimers, or off-track routes at Ferndale. It’s important to be a specialist in this game because nothing works in all situations.

You have to find the right tool for the job.

We’d all like to find the “hidden Z component third race back followed by drop in class and jockey switch” factor which would make us rich in any situation.

But every situation is different.

It’s important to define your “situations,” find the really relevant categories, and then use the predictors that work in those categories.

 
What you wont read on this blog is a daily list of “my tips” and selections.

My objective is to develop a portfolio of betting strategies and the focus is to develop, document and track results for each of these strategies on this web site.

Once proven, I will invest in these strategies for profit.

As I embark on my journey to become a professional investor, I need to demonstrate that my methods generate enough income over an extended period (approx. 3-5 years) to sustain/maintain my lifestyle.

In short, if I cannot achieve profits on paper or with a fictitious betting bank, then I deserve to return to the ranks of the “mug punter”.

If my selection methods are sound my return on investment should increase and my results will determine the right time to “take it to the next level”.

For the moment my interim objective with be to continually develop my betting knowledge and punting skills; to bet “systematically” and work toward developing an alternative investment strategy/career.

Until the happy day, all that remains is that I execute to the plan, retain self belief, have the confidence that I can succeed at the same time having fun!