After many years of struggling with the practical (and psychological) aspects of punting I have determined that “Guerrilla Betting” is one method that can provide that all so important edge over bookmakers and fellow punters.

In summary it means “to be always on the lookout for situations when the enemy (the crowd) is weak and take advantage of the profitable betting opportunities they provide”. These are varied.

Examples are identifying an advantageous draw bias, favourable statistics or trends. Taking advantage of crowd hysteria, confusion or lack of knowledge in chaotic races. Unearthing a horse or team that has superior abilities compared to it rivals, specialisation, whatever. The point is to exploit any situation that can give you an edge over fellow punters.

It must be ego at work, but I think almost everyone who has set out to find a way to “beat the races” has hampered themselves right from the start. The reason?

Trying to beat the races rather than some subset of the races, like dirt sprints, maiden claimers, or off-track routes at Ferndale. It’s important to be a specialist in this game because nothing works in all situations.

You have to find the right tool for the job.

We’d all like to find the “hidden Z component third race back followed by drop in class and jockey switch” factor which would make us rich in any situation.

But every situation is different.

It’s important to define your “situations,” find the really relevant categories, and then use the predictors that work in those categories.

My objective is to develop a portfolio of betting strategies using information that the public underuses or ignores. The focus is to develop, document and track results for each of these strategies on this web site. Their developement is based on the following premis

In order to make money betting on sports, you must either have information that is not being used by the betting public, or you must have a superior ability to process the information that is public

What you wont read on this blog is a daily list of “my tips”, however, you can review selections on my virtual notepad.

Currently my experimental investment portfolio consists of the following strategies

Horse Racing

Pace Handicapping (predominately All Weather races)
Analysing past races to see what sort of runners have been winning. Analysing the horses entered in a race to try to figure out how the race will be run. The object is to find the horse or horses that best fit the profile of what it takes to win at the track.

Virtual Stable
Objective is to identify horses who in my opinion are winners in waiting

Bath Racecourse
Selections from my local track

Exotic
Beyond the “One Horse” bet.

Bet Types

* Win – When I have a strong opinion

* Place – Bets on favourites that are more than likely to place

* Trading – “Back to Lay” legitimate  favourites or market leaders

* Exotic – Doubles, Trebles, Exacta’s, Fourfolds and Placepot

* Lays – Against vulnerable/false favourites

Once proven, I will invest in these strategies for profit.

Staking Plan

As a value punter, betting decisions are sometimes driven by my tissue per the example below.

The market (especially Betfair) is smart so in low grade races (Class 5 and below) I let the “crowd” do the handicapping and analyse them by matching my short list against theirs. To determine if my contenders’ price represents value, I apply a simple technique advocated in Mordin’s book Betting for a Living.

It is, I fear, ludicrously simple. All I do is work out a race, using my normal methods. This involves eliminating all runners who I feel have no chance to win. If this leaves me with four contenders, I know that my selection has roughly one chance in four of winning.

I hope its chance is somewhat better than that, but I know that this is compensated for by the accumulated (though slight) chances of the runners I have eliminated.
So I will want to obtain at least 4-1 for my money. If I think there are three legitimate contenders, I will accept no less that 3-1. If I believe five horses have a chance, I won’t bet if I can’t get 5-1. These prices guarantee me a profit, provided my calculations aren’t in error.
Nick Mordin

For races of Class 4 or above, as the pre race market changes, I will alter on the odds in the spreadsheet above for each horse above “natural odds” until the point where the horses head down to post. It’s at this point I will bet horse(s) that offer the biggest edge (or “value”) highlighted on the spreadsheet in green (>15%).  Horses with a edge greater than 50% are highlighted in red as a warning that the market is offering me a lot of value so I need to double check my asumptions and ask why!

For example, based on my analysis of this race, Le Toreador is a potential bet, however Feeling Foxy offers a 32% edge in the market which is 17% above my notional minimum of 15%. Using the Kelly Criterion as a guide, if I’m feeling confident I would stake 1% of my betting bank.

Because the pre-race market is “almost” efficient, in the final minutes before the race starts, I will accept shorter prices on horses that have shortened though my tissue and side with the market by avoiding horses at longer “drifting” prices than my tissue.

To keep things simple for the blog, I will equate percentages to points on the results page.

As I embark on my journey to become a professional investor, I need to demonstrate that my methods generate enough income over an extended period (approx. 3-5 years) to sustain/maintain my lifestyle.

In short, if I cannot achieve profits on paper or with a fictitious betting bank, then I deserve to return to the ranks of the “mug punter”.

If my selection methods are sound my return on investment should increase and my results will determine the right time to “take it to the next level”.

For the moment my interim objective with be to continually develop my betting knowledge and punting skills; to bet “systematically” and work toward developing an alternative investment strategy/career.

Until the happy day, all that remains is that I execute to the plan, retain self belief, have the confidence that I can succeed at the same time having fun!