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As soon as the heavens opened I knew I should have observed proceedings from the Bath Ales on course bar!

Handicapping theory indicates that if you fancy something and it drifts in the market you should bet more. This theory should come with a government health warning if race conditions change. Coupled with a moment of madness on Diane’s Choice and loses at Southwell it was a miserable betting performance (just like the weather). Aren’t amphibians supposed to revel in wet conditions?

The key lesson for today is that normal draw biases change when the ground softens and Bath is no different. When the going is soft, the far rail is verboten so any horse challenging on the inside gets swallowed in the final furlong. Down the road there’s potential to exploit this phenomenon in-running.

On a positive note I have gathered enough data to prove a simple and effective handicapping elimination filter but with no All Weather races this week I’ll take time out to monitor turf biases for potential betting opportunities on horses that like to run prominently in paced biased races/courses/distances.

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