The wagering menu for baseball consist of the following

  • Moneyline
  • Totals
  • Run Line

“Try chewing a few prawns before you announce to the world that you intend to devour an entire lobster” 

 Sir Ranulph Fiennes

MLB PlyersFrom this menu I have chosen to focus on totals.

With totals (over/under), you are betting on the total number of runs scored in the game by both teams with extra innings included.

For example

Cleveland Indians v Texas Rangers

Total: 8.5
Over: 1.8
Under: 2.05

A punter could choose one of two over/under wagers on this match-up.

Betting on the Over 8.5 @ 1.8; if the total runs of both teams combined are more than 8.5, then the player wins at the odds indicated. Betting on the Under 8.5 @ 2.05; if the total runs of both teams combined are less than 8.5, then the player wins at the odds specified.

Seems simple enough; especially if you are in possession of a crystal ball which allows you to predict the final score (and the winning numbers of the national lottery).

Like all forms of handicapping the gambling gods require blood, sweat and tears in return for their spoils therefore, when handicapping baseball totals, your main task is to determine those factors that are critical in creating and limiting runs.

The Answer to Life, the Universe, and everything is 42

The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.

To determine which of the two choices offer value, in baseball the magic number is 9. The following table details the percentage of runs scored and bet total from 1998 to 2006 (courtesy of King Tao)

As you can see from the numbers, more games land on 7, 9 and 11 runs than any other number.

The reason is well documented; a tie game in baseball requires at least one more run to score before its ends. A game tied at 4-4 in the late innings more often than not will end with nine runs scored in the game; just like 3-3 games will usually end within a 4-3 victory from one team. Notice also baseball totals are more likely to be odd than even.

Using the above table, a punter can calculate the true over/under odds using the value set by the bookies. You can guess which numbers the odds compliers try to keep the right side of when setting the over/under odds.

Next week I shall start experimental selections so I can take them on at their own game

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