Southwell Redux

In the next of my blog posts which tries to yield profitable pointers for the All Weather venues in the UK and Ireland, lets cast our eye over at Southwell.

Southwell is the black sheep of all the All Weather venues in that it has one major difference, the fibresand surface

As fibresand is a mixture of sand and wispy fibres it is sometimes referred to as “spube”, this being derived from the “s” of sand and the resemblance of a kind of human hair.

The racing is also of significance. The now unique fibresand racing surface is quite deep and so makes the track a good stamina test. Ability to stay the distance and fitness are therefore big advantages at Southwell..

In respect to punting pointers, I had already outlined a few in a previous blog post based on a course visit a while ago. Using the power of Proform Professional I’ll include additional context to this blog entry.

Let’s begin with the most prevalent punting factor at Southwell; pace. When pundits hark on about the fact that Southwell is a pace oriented course, here’s why:

As inferred from the stats, up to 8 furlongs horses that like to run prominently (“L”) have a distinct advantage over their “hold up” counter parts. Once you are out in front at Southwell, the “deep” fibresand surface does not allow you to easily peg any advantage gained from being fast out of the traps. To replicate the effect, next time you are on a beach, offer to run against an opponent of lesser ability over 100 meters, but give them a 5 meter head start.

From a punting perspective a multitude of betting options are on offer using this one factor alone; for example laying the favourite based on its running preference.

In respect to draw stats, like most oval course configurations the closer you are to the inside, trigonometry suggest the less distance that has to be run and therefore the greater advantage a horse has if it’s close to the rail. However watch out for stall 1.

Although counter intuitive to my above statement, there’s something in the manner how the rail rides and at certain times of the year rendering stall 1 a “coffin” box.

There are a number of reasons why this is the case which I won’t regurgitate. Hopefully in the next few months I’ll get the definitive reason from the friendly bunch that is the Southwell regulars at my next course visit.

Simply, the inner rail (and outer over 5 furlongs) rides deeper than other parts of the track which saps the stamina of horses who due to their berth at the off, try to hold their inside position prior to the first turn.

So, rock … meet hard place because if you are in stall 1 in one turn races at Southwell and run prominently you are done for, miss the break and you are done for plus sucking in kickback off the hoofs of the horses in front of you for added measure.

5 furlongs sprints at Southwell also presents a different puzzle for punters. Firstly it’s unique in that the race is on a straight track where at Lingfield, Kempton, Wolverhampton and Dundalk have at least one turn over 5 furlong sprints. Secondly dependant on the number of runners the rails are positioned either “inner” or “outer” which renders all form book 5f Southwell draw stats meaningless.

The trick for 5 furlong races is to first determine stall position and note the pace horses whose stall position is aligned toward the middle of the track and dependant on number of runners in the race be cautious of horses drawn toward the rail either side of the track.

Another tip I picked up from reading Nick Mordins book (Betting For a Living) is to side with horses that have a “straight course” form pattern in their past performances.

Finally horses that favour fibresand are a subset within a subset that perform well on All Weather surfaces, sires to consider at Southwell are:

In summary Southwell uniqueness suggests that discerning punters who wish to dabble in All Weather races should go prospecting at Southwell. There’s gold in them thar fibresand.

Related Posts

• Southwell Racecourse
• Southwell 5 furlong Bias