Wolverhampton Redux

This is the first of many posts where I try to provide helpful punting hints and stats for the All Weather courses of Lingfield, Southwell, Kempton, Dundalk and Wolverhampton. Hopefully these posts will provide useful pointers for the forthcoming All Weather season starting in November.

Up until I discovered Dundalk in Ireland, Wolverhampton held a special place in my punting heart as I always found betting there easy and as a consequence the first All Weather course I visited when I decided to specialise in All Weather racing.

A description of the facilities can be found here and like all the other All Weather venues, punters are well treated with fantastic facilities.

The course can be considered “flat” and “tight” and as we shall see later, the latter characteristic plays a significant part in the draw bias at Wolverhampton. The stats below are for 3yo handicaps under 8 furlongs

If we break down the horses breeding by country (as you would assume), GB and Irish horses top the winners list. You often hear pundits suggest that you should side with USA bred horses on the All Weather due to their “Dirt Pedigree”, on this occasion they are on the right side of the stats. Surprisingly French bred horses also win more than their fair share of races.

This table just reinforces the handicapping fact that like turf racing, the younger horses are favoured.

The weaker sexes seem to be disadvantaged on this and as we shall see in later posts other All Weather venues. Although I am yet to be convinced as I have punted many a filly home however, I do consider the sex of the horse in my handicapping process.

No surprises here as every book on handicapping suggests you should focus your attention on the horses at the top of the weights.

The same comments apply to the starting prices and why it pays to let the market speak first before making a bet. The stats indicate that if you focus your attention on the top 5 in the market just before the race, the majority of the time you will find the winner.

The pace  statistic suggests that in races below 8 furlongs with those that like to be close to the lead from the gate are typically there or thereabouts at the wire. However to understand the pace dynamics at Wolverhampton, you really need to treat each distance differently per the next table

What we now see is that over 5f, you need to side with the “early” horses, over 8f as so often happens the early horses get shot down in the final furlong by the “other than early” hold up horses. 6f and 7f are the most difficult races to read in respect to their biases. I have to admit that I have yet to see a horse “make all” over 6f and my own observations suggest that stall position is the key factor over this distance. Over 7 furlongs I have seen horses win from gate to wire and win coming off the pace.

Typically in the winter months the polytrack surface will ride “deep” as a consequence of harrowing to remove frost. Doubtful stayers at any distance get found out. A wet surface due to rain causes surface compaction which results in the opposite effect.

In summary, it does pay to review previous races to determine the current pace bias of the day and also the pace within the race to try and anticipate how the race will unfold.

Ideally the draw statistics should be broken down by distance, but suffice to say that given the tightness of the bends at Wolverhampton, horses drawn low hold a distinct advantage

Wolverhampton Punting Pointers

• The winner is typically top 5 in the weights and starting prices
• Side with Geldings and Colts
• A low draw is a distinct advantage
• Over 5 furlongs,  horses with a “held up” pace profile are “lay” candidates.
• Betting horses bred in IRE, USA and FRA are more profitable in the long run than horses bred in GB
• Focus your attention on horses aged 5 years old or less.

Data Source: Proform Professional

 

Related Posts

• Wolverhampton Pace Bias
• Wolverhampton Race Course