Sunday September 11, 2011 14:10
Why Pace is an Important Factor
Posted by slipperytoad as Betting Theory
A poor days punting yesterday always focuses the mind. Therefore as all good handicappers from time to time review their records, I’ve cast a critical eye over mine.
My review determined that I had taken my eye off the ball when pace handicapping.
It was Nick Mordin the author of “Betting For a Living” who introduced me to pace analysis and its importance in determining not how fast a horse runs but how it runs fast!
Reading William Quirin’s book “Winning At The Races – Computer Discoveries in Thoroughbred Handicapping” further enlightened me to this subject and the significance of early speed supported by his studies and various statistics.
As a re-education exercise I re-read the relevant chapters in Quirin’s book and re-created a version of his analysis for UK races (source data: Proform Professional)
The table above shows the level stakes profit when betting horses that like to lead “L”, horses that like to race prominently “P” and horses that like to race “held up” at the back of the pack “H”.
The data span’s Flat (All Weather, Turf) and National Hunt (Chase, Hurdle, NHF) races across all age groups, distances and courses in the United Kingdom and Ireland (from 1997 and 2009 respectively)
Let’s just say as a result of this review, I am spending the quiet time between All Weather races updating my statistical model to include this significant handicapping factor.
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Tags: Pace