Saturday July 31, 2010 12:11
Stewards Cup – 31st July 2010
Posted by slipperytoad as Principle Races
As I’ve written many a time, I’m like a moth to a flame in these bookie sponsored, impossible to fathom, 28 runner sprint handicaps.
The Stewards Cup has been run since the 1840 therefore there are plenty of facts and numbers for us stat heads to analyse. After crunching the numbers facts, my ratings and figures I arrived at the following tissue for the race (18/1 bar).
The most over analysed (and some might say hyped) factor in this race is the draw. Along with the ground under normal circumstances this is the case. In spring handicaps it can come down to inches at the finish therefore we punters need to determine which horses have the assistance of any draw bias before the race and adjust our thinking accordingly.
However on straight courses, I am one that subscribes to the notion that the pace within the pace and the course pace bias dictates which side of the course has the advantage. Often I have listened to reporters who predict which side has the advantage based on the outcome a race ran under similar conditions earlier on the card which totally ignore the pace dynamics of the current race in question. They then go onto ruminate when a runner from the un-fancied side of the draw wins. Unfortunately Jockies make the same mistake and sometimes their perception of ground conditions and draw bias can ruin your well planned assult on the bookmaker.
Anyway, back to the subject at hand. The weight of historical evidence suggests that you need to be drawn high to win the Stewards Cup. In today’s race the majority of the pace within the race is drawn low so I’ll nail my colours to the mast and state that the low draw numbers should run better than expected as a consequence of today’s pace dynamic.
Previous renewals of this race suggest that the winner was “held up” for a late challenge. However in yesterdays consolidation race I noted that early speed held off any pace pressure from those behind (“speed carries” as the Americans would say). This matches my pace bias figures for this distance and I will err on the side of runners that like to run prominently.
Shortlisted (no surprises)
Jonny Mudball: Can’t help thinking that he recent win at Newcastle was aided by a massive draw bias. However has speed to burn and could be a group horse in handicap company.
Striking Spirit: Wokingham 2nd from draw biased stall. Low’ish draw today.
Genki: Last year’s winner, 6yo’s have a poor’ish record in this race.
Rileyskeepingfaith: Biggest problem, drawn in stall 15 right down the middle of the track. Dammed if he does dammed if he does not.
Palace Moon: Wokingham 3rd. Player with Mr Fallon on board.
Noverre To Go: 7th in the Wokingham, contender from a high draw
Bet
Noverre To Go and Jonny Mudball @ 8/1 or better, Striking Spirit @ 11/1 or better
Result (= Gutted)
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Tags: Goodwood, Principle Race