Wednesday June 9, 2010 22:25
Hint 60 – If your horse drifts, back it again
Posted by slipperytoad as Bookmakers
It is not uncommon for punters to get unto a flap when a horse drifts. They begin to imagine all manner of horror stories, largely circulating around the prospect that their horse will not be doing its best. During our earlier form study we have already satisfied ourselves that we are on a trier, so there is no need for us to panic.
One Hundred Hints for Better Betting – Mark Cotton
Below is a good example of why you should bet once the crowd has had their say and let your tissue determine your final decision. My analysis of the race
Tissue
5/1 Regeneration, 11/2 Cape Rock, 13/2 Mishrif, 7/1 Clockmaker, 9/1 Quasi Congaree, 10/1 Totally Focussed
Analysis
Eddie Freemantle summed up Clockmaker’s recent race in post race comments on RacingUK; the form in the race (class 5 maiden) is nothing to get carried away with. A beaten favourite first time in handicap gets another black mark from me.
Concerns about Mishrif in respect to class and stamina doubts about Quasi Congaree leaves the front two in the tissue.
Non runners have changed the complexity of the race (and draw positions). As the main contenders that like to run up with the pace are drawn out wide, I’ve altered the tissue to reflect the fact that life is more difficult. I’ll watch the race to see what transpires but its looking like no value = not bet.
Market
Result
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Tags: Tissue
4 Responses to Hint 60 – If your horse drifts, back it again
koko
June 12th, 2010 at 01:36
hi,
I like reading your blog,keep it going,please can you consider excanging links?
http://tradingbetfairfun.blogspot.com/
Thanks
slipperytoad
June 12th, 2010 at 06:54
The pictures alone are enough to add your site to my blogroll!
benjamin
June 15th, 2010 at 11:15
Hi Slippery. I’ve been enjoying your site since the early days and it’s still very interesting stuff, useful for novices such as myself!
Back in the bad old pre-Betfair days I always considered drifting in the market a worrying sign. If I’ve backed a horse these days, however, and it drifts late on I barely even worry. Perhaps (these are only vague ideas and observations but…) there is value to be found for the aspiring bettor in the midst of sometimes immoderate everyday trading.
All the best.
Good Drifters, Bad Drifters
September 23rd, 2010 at 17:21
[...] Good drifters can pay dividends. Below is an example of a horse that is a bad drifter. [...]