The Exacta – Beyond the One Horse Bet

It was a long journey home returning from the Winter Derby at Lingfield by National Express bus. Enough time to read and review my pre race notes, subsequent results and mull over my handicapping in general.

A free flow exchange of handicapping approaches and techniques with Sandracer during the meeting made me realise that I may be over complicating my tissue process. Making one and using it during in the cut and thrust of the betting ring necessitates a simpler approach. I have identified changes and will make adjustments in future races.

My records indicate I’m very good at picking horses to place, a pre requisite for intrarace exotic bets such as the Exacta and Trifecta, so what motivates me now to play these bets?

Overlays, payoffs that are higher than they should be are abound in the exotic pools because many players approach them as nothing more than complicated win bets rather than entirely different entities that require different approaches. Simply put, the exotic pools are still inefficient markets, and their inefficiency increases as the bets become more complex and the potential for big payoffs increases.

How many times does the second favourite place second? What is the Exacta payout when betting first and second favourite in a 7/2, 5/1 reverse forecast? If you don’t know the answer to these questions, then stop betting as your minnow stake swells the Exacta pool for the sharp minds and bookmakers whales to gobble up.

I didn’t fully recognise the value in the exotics until I started to miss out on some tasty payoffs (identified by my records) therefore I can assume that my handicapping has matured to the point where I can add exotics to my armoury; for the moment this will be the Exacta.

According the literature, the Exacta (picking the one, two finishers in order) and the Computer Straight Forecast CSF (the bookies equivalent) should be unleashed as follows

Exacta as a win bet
When the favourite is your first choice but an underlay as a win bet. Play the favourite on top (first) over what you consider to be the likely placed horses

Exacta as place bet
When the favourite is vulnerable to a long shot(s). Bet the long shot to win and play the favourite on top of your longshot(s)

In chaos races
If the favourite is false and there are multiple win contenders, write down the probable exacta payoffs in table or matrix and bet the highest paying combinations.

Note, the above assumes the following

1. You can identify a legitimate, vulnerable and false favourites
2. You can identify placed horses(s)
3. You can calculate the fair payouts of various horse combinations based on your own or the publics betting forecast

I’m setting up a separate bank for exotics to put the theory (and my handicapping) to the test.

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