It’s always folly to tempt the patience of the gambling gods but a pleasing set of results yesterday
Southwell 9th March – Contenders
4:10
Kings Ace
Louisiade 2nd
Madison Belle 1st @ 7/1
4.40
Exit Smiling
Mozayada
Trans Sonic 1st @ 7/2
5:10
Tri Chara
Hard Ball
Vogarth
5.40
Cape Of Storms
Don Pele
Fulford 2nd
Gracie´s Gift 1st @ 22/1
My weekend review of my Pace Process and assumptions (think aggregation of marginal gains) really helped to visualise the running of each race to great effect.
What was really pleasing was the result of the 5:40 given that my recent visit to Southwell provided a real time lesson of how efficient the market is at this venue and therefore needs to be monitored closely up to the point when the runners enter the starting stalls.
The drift on Betfair of pre race favourite Fulford gave the “kiss of death” signal I needed to dutch the other contenders for a positive result.
The other lesson from my Southwell expedition was the requirement of early pace for distances up to 8 furlongs. Below are the in running comments for each of the winners from the races above
Madison Belle – led, headed over 4f out, led again over 2f out, soon pressed, ridden and held on gamely opened 8/1 touched 9/1
Trans Sonic – prominent, led after 2f , about 4 lengths clear over 2f out, ridden out touched 4/1 £1600-£400 (x8)
Bold Diva – held up, headway to chase leader over 1f out, ridden to lead narrowly inside final furlong, driven out opened 4/1
Gracie’s Gift – tracked leaders, led 2f out, ridden and ran on opened 14/1 touched 25/1 £5000-£250 Each Way
I don’t mind being wrong once in every four attempts in my pre race pace analysis as long as I can reduce the odds in my favour when eliminating horses that are running against the pace bias for the remaining three occasions.
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Tags: Pace