Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda … Doesn’t Get it Done!

Haven’t posted Decembers results, unfortunately they will tell me something I already know.

The only benefit of spending all afternoon in Corals earlier this week was that it enabled me to observe each race on the Southwell card from early show to finish. . In between each race I had time to review the thoughts of the Racing Post commentators and tipsters (Trading Post, Training Centres et al). I was amazed that their opinion matched my own yet they (like I) ended up getting it wrong.

My observations matched against my expectation (pre race handicapping) resulted in a recognition that I need to bring something different to the game instead of replicating what everyone else is doing.

There’s no sense playing this game if you can’t sit back after a long day of racing and analysing your play. If you can’t learn from your mistakes or accentuate your strengths, then there is just no way you can be a winning horseplayer. In horse racing, honesty really is the best policy. If you’re deceiving yourself, either in terms of your handicapping ability, your proficiency at making smart bets, or your money ledger at the end of a meet, then you’re destined for the poorhouse. To win consistently over time, you need to be honest and analytical about the way you play the game.

“What is means to handicap yourself” – Six Secrets of Successful Bettors

In working toward identifying what needs to be addressed, in post race review I shall measure my performance in respect to of the following categories (I may add more or modify the ones below)

Selection

• Win: The race was run as expected, money in the pocket, life’s good
• Pass Legitimate Favourite Win: Passed the race as pre race analysis indicated that the favourite was a good thing that subsequently won.
• Lost – Final selection lost the race

Money Management

• Poor Value – Obtained the wrong price for my bet
• Discipline – Bet like a mug punter or bet on the tilt.
• Staking – Bet too much (or too little)
• Price – Obtained value odds for my selection

Process

• Handicapping Error – Over/under handicapped the race or missed an obvious factor
• Pace Analysis – Read the race completely wrong
• Contender Selection – The winner of the race was missing from my pre-race shortlist
• Categorisation Error – Short listed eventual winner incorrectly (Win, Place, Show column)
• Professional – Followed the handicapping process which resulted in a positive outcome

Using Excel Pivot Tables I can create a chart to visualise my performance and identify areas for improvement.

I’ll kick off the metrics collection in January as part of my New Year improvement plans

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