The “law of unintended consequences” (also called the “law of unforeseen consequences”) states that any purposeful action will produce some unanticipated or unintended consequences.
For a while now my focus was on getting my odd compilation correct. So intense was my focus I neglected the fact that the tissue is only as good as the information used to construct it. Garbage in = garbage out. A key point of learning from my GCSE Computer Studies course in 1978.
So in reviewing the basics (“Winning at the Races” – Quirin) I determined I had neglected to factor the importance of recent form in my handicapping. I have ticks in boxes for pace, draw etc.
The respected American handicapper and author Mark Cramer has a huge influence on my approach to betting. Based on his teachings, I’ve created the following aide memoir to remind me which handicapping factors are important at each class level.
To be honest my tissues should be treated with caution while I absorb the new piece of data and analyse the consequences.
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Tags: Process
2 Responses to Unintended Consequences
Dave
October 9th, 2009 at 01:04
Hey ST
Very interesting – I’ve got something similar pasted to my wall to the side of my screen. Interested to know about ‘earnings’ though, is that the cumulative earnings of the horse ? Had a look on Amazon for books by Cramer but most are out of print – if you had to recommend one to someone on the lookout for new handicapping angles, which one would it be ?
Cheers
Dave
slipperytoad
October 9th, 2009 at 09:09
Earning are a different take on the class consistency angle.
The Impact values (I.V’s) for “Total Earnings“, “Avg Earnings” per start and “Average Purse” are positive for those that head each list. Though useful in Listed and Group races you still need to include other handicapping factors. A horse may outclass its opponents, but unless it is in shape and running under optimal conditions it will not be able to beat others in the race.
If can get it (its rare as hen’s teeth hence expesnsive) I would get a copy of “Odds on Your Side” my Cramer. Failing that, the book listed in the post is useful too. It does not provide anything new but enforces which factors are important based on statistics.