Favourite Countermeasures – The Sequal

In this post I discussed a tactic to address legitimate favourites. Although useful, my tactic reflected the thinking pre exchanges and ignored the fact that

If my handicapping indicates that the favourite is legitimate and everyone else has come to the same conclusion, the price of the favourite can only go in one direction, down!

Now I need to modify my statement slightly in that it conveniently ignores the fact that exchanges are an amalgam of differing opinions and sometimes a drop or drift in prices reflects opinions based on a piece of information not known by the Racing Post, Odds compliers or public at large i.e. someone knows that the horse is [not] running to its true merits.

I’m not suggesting the exchanges are rife with skulduggery. I’m of the opinion that dodgy stuff does happen on Betfair but not on a scale reported by betting shop punters or tabloid press.

My counter to anyone is, attend a race meeting and watch a horse in the paddock or on its canter down to the start line. Its pretty damm obvious which horses are running on their merits when you see them in the flesh. This opinion is reflected in the on course market and subsequently on the exchanges.

Behind every tick on Betfair, Betdaq etc is a human or “bot” (i.e. Robot; an automated betting tool programmed by a human) and human traits in respect to hot favourites are well understood. We all love to bet them!

In the 8.20 at Kempton this evening we have a hot favourite “The Scorching Wind”.

Based on my tissue above the favourite is legitimate with nothing else in the field offering value.

Currently on the exchanges The Scorching Wind “place” price is 1.25 verses my estimate of 1.35 so bang goes my tactic of backing the jolly to make the frame at a value price.

What else? Well if I read human betting psychology correct “The Scorching Wind” will be everyone’s “NAP of the day” and included in doubles, trebles and accumulators up and down the breath of the country.

Given that the price of a horse in a race reflects opinion, the price of “The Scorching Wind” should drop due to the weight of money or due to bookies managing their liabilities.

Assuming a price movement downwards (as I did at 10pm yesterday evening) I backed “The Scorching Wind” to win at 2.79 with the aim of laying him at a shorter price later in the day or just before the off. Currently his price is 1.97. If I then hedge my trade I can lock in a profit regardless of the result of the race.

You now know my tactic for legitimate favourites if I cannot back them to make the frame at a value price.

8:30pm Update:

The Scorching Wind was beaten into second at odds of 8-13. I managed to layoff and hedge at 1.88 and bet him to place at value odds of 1.25 on betfair.

Related Posts

• All Weather Favourite Stats
• “Steamers” and “drifters” – a myth worth busting
• Mass Delusion of Crowds
• The Curse of the Legitimate Favourite
• The Name is Complier, Odds Compiler
• Skin in the Game
• Thou Shalt Know Thy Track
• Expected Value
• Subconscious Handicapping
• Handicapping Process