As the nights draw in the curtain sets on my turf season..
There are only 3 meetings planned for the rest of this year, however as written on many occasions September is dangerous month for punters given changing ground/weather conditions and tired horses after a long turf campaign.
The majority of this season has been spent attending Bath racecourse therefore I think I am qualified to comment on this idiosyncratic nature of this venue.
- Don’t oppose the favorite in the first race unless there is money for something else in the field.
- Over certain distances Bath is a front runner’s track. Horses that like to race prominently and are well drawn should be given your utmost attention over 8, 10 and 13 furlongs.
- In addition to passing those in front of them, hold up horses have to negotiate a tight downhill back straight and tight final bend. They are then faced with the challenge of making their challenge on an upward slope toward the finishing line.
- Bath is a unique course. Side with horses that have run well here before! For example Desparate Dan form figures at Bath are 10 runs 4 wins 4 palaces. His recent 10/1 win at SP (12/1 on course) was a highlight of my season.
- Forget the Tote Placepot at Bath. The market leaders usually make the frame and typically the average payout is £40
- Bath is about 3000 feet above sea level. Even when the sun shining a gentle breeze can make the course chilly
What have I learnt from attending meetings at Bath?
- You can’t crush every race, be selective
- I’m much better betting in handicaps than non handicaps (I knew this already).
- The market provides a good insight into a races at Bath. Not that the market gets it right all the time. No, the market is a good guide to the chaotic nature of a race.
- Course specialisation can give you and edge.
Onwards toward the All Weather season
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Tags: Bath
6 Responses to Turf Season Curtain Closer
bigdavestar
August 30th, 2009 at 19:10
Out of interest, why do you say “Don’t oppose the favourite in the first race?”, is this based on statistics or something else?
slipperytoad
August 30th, 2009 at 19:15
Based on experience of trying to oppose the favorite in the first all season. On average the first race is an easy win for punters. Unfortunately with a win underneath their belt novice (or otherwise) punters get carried away which sets them up to be fleeced by the bookies in later races.
Keith - Racing Systems
September 3rd, 2009 at 11:50
” September is dangerous month for punters given changing ground/weather conditions ”
These days you’ll find that the months to avoid are Jan-Dec!!! Over the last 3 years the only stable weather has usually been Oct-Jan. The other months have seen extremes.
It always used to be the case that the changeover months of March & September would be a pain in the ass, but that is no longer the case, and swings of weather will only get worse in the years to come.
slipperytoad
September 3rd, 2009 at 17:27
Thanks I’ll note though I have already moved across to All Weather racing already.
Harry's Blog
September 9th, 2009 at 10:39
A really interesting point you have made here, with regards the 1st favourite on the card.
You are quite right by the way (I didn’t expect anything less) that statistically the first favourite on the card has a higher percentage strike rate, I picked up on this point many years ago and it hasn’t altered or changed since.
Now being statistics man and always using facts to beat the bookie, this is an important point. Whether you are laying or backing it is important to understand, any small point that may help you gain that small edge.
Well pointed out and great post on Bath racecourse, yes it does get very chilly up there!
Keep up the good work.
Best Wishes
Harry
slipperytoad
September 9th, 2009 at 13:30
Thanks Harry