The Curse of the Legitimate Favourite

After a long string of 2nd places to market leaders (and losing bets in races I had no business punting in) I re-read one of my American handicapping books and came across a piece of advice that I had long since forgotten..

One solid piece of handicapping advice is to never bet against a legitimate favourite. Another solid piece of handicapping advice is to “never” bet on a legitimate favourite. What? That’s right. In almost every case, it is best to pass the race than to bet on or to bet against a legitimate favourite!

The reason we pass almost all races with a legitimate favourite is because the payoffs just do not support any kind of a profitable wagering approach. You will have a VERY hard time making money-playing favourites. And if you bet against them, they will often come in and ruin your payoffs.

Here is a profound piece of handicapping advice: If you want to make money at the track, your primary handicapping job is NOT to find the winning horse. Instead, it is to find one or more horses that will most likely finish ahead of the public favourite. If you are not already doing this and if you really let this sink in, it will, or at least it should, change the way you approach the whole handicapping process.

Related Posts

• All Weather Favourite Stats
• “Steamers” and “drifters” – a myth worth busting
• Mass Delusion of Crowds
• Favourite Countermeasures – The Sequal
• The Name is Complier, Odds Compiler
• Skin in the Game
• Thou Shalt Know Thy Track
• Expected Value
• Subconscious Handicapping
• Handicapping Process