Just about recovered from jet lag after my business trip to Japan. My return coincided with the end of the month; here is a summary of my progress in July
Low lights
- ~ 6% strike rate! Benchmark performance is around 20% for long term success
- Still committing basic handicapping errors when analysing races. Therefore the content I’m using to create my tissue and final selections is proving the computing idiom “garbage in = garbage out”
- Spending too much time handicapping the handicappers and second guessing their work.
- The virtual stable has been performing poorly due to the fact that I am not putting in the effort to review races daily and note useful performances
Highlights
- +26 point profit! Ok, mainly due to a couple of big priced winners however they were backed at the maximum Kelly stake. A low strike rate but overall profit proves the theory of that punters’ should bet for value. We’ll see what next month brings!
- The process of creating the tissue is repeatable and provides a mathematically sound staking method.
- Specialising and understanding the idiosyncratic nature of Bath Racecourse is paying dividends
This month’s focus
- Eliminate basic handicapping errors
- Win bets only, ditch the Virtual Stable strategy for the moment.
- Selectivity, I can’t crush every race so focus on courses/distances where my pace data indicates an advantage.
- Trust the various ratings I am using and focus my efforts on the race conditions, pace handicapping and trying to determine contenders who are suited to the race.
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Tags: Updates