Over the last few nights I have been burning the midnight oil.
Bath has a meeting this Saturday and I want to take my new gadget for a field trial.
Learning about its inner workings and configuration settings I’ve had to get to grips with Windows Mobile 6. Not easy for a die hard Nokia user!
I also wanted to remove all subjectivity from the tissue compilation process and it’s this task that has really burnt the candle at both ends to resolve the following dilemma
- If I think a horse has a good chance winning what are the true odds?
- If I think a horse has a good chance of losing what are the true odds?
In gambling and economics, the favourite-longshot bias is an observed phenomenon where on average, bettors tend to overvalue “long shots” and undervalue favourites. That is, in a horse race where one horse is given odds of 2 to 1, and another 100 to 1, the true odds might for example be 1.5 to 1 and 300 to 1 respectively. Betting on the “long shot” is therefore a much worse proposition than betting on the favourite. Various theories exist to explain why people willingly bet on such losing propositions, such as risk-taking behaviour, or simply inaccurate estimation.
Having read various research papers on the subject, it turns out that the process of odds compilation to account for a favourite longshot bias is not as simple as one might think; especially when one is trying remove the overround to squeeze all the runners into a 100% tissue.
With the aid of SP analysis tables, Microsoft Excel and my gizmo I’m going to experiment for a while.
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Tags: Tissue
3 Responses to Thinking Like a Bookie!
gary
June 18th, 2009 at 23:08
So, how did it go at Bath last week?
slipperytoad
June 19th, 2009 at 08:49
In respect to the gadget, about 80% successful. Accessing the internet on the PDA via Bluetooth connection with my Nokia phone can be challenging in low 3G signal conditions.
In respect to the odds compilation, 100% successful when my handicapping of the race hasn’t overlooked a fundamental factor(s) i.e. garbage in garbage out. However being able to calculate my % edge via mobile excel based on bookie odds on the fly means decision making is a snip during the high stress environment of the betting ring.
Successful bets on the day were in races where I had not completed a tissue as most of the runners could be easily eliminated from consideration. In these races, the value is easy, back the horse on my shortlist that offers the most value or crush your main selection (fire and forget) at the best price available in the ring, then walk away with beer in hand!
I did both and wallet was swollen as a consequence.
gary
June 19th, 2009 at 23:20
Sounds like a good result; particularly the bit about having a beer in hand!