As part of my pace handicapping methodology, over the winter I collated a list of All Weather pace biases over all race distances at Lingfield, Wolverhampton, Southwell and Kempton.
To extend the dataset, from the beginning of this year’s flat season I started to note pace biases from every turf distance across all of our UK race courses.
The table below list the percentage winners from three pace categories
- F = front runners
- M = mid field runners
- B = behind (held up) runners
I ordered the table by “F” to determine which courses assist horses that like to play “catch me if you can” from the gate.
| Course | Distance |
|---|---|
| Chepstow | 7f |
| Folkstone | 5f |
| Chester | 5f |
| Catterick | 5f |
| Bath | 10f |
| Ripon | 5f |
| Folkstone | 12f |
| Newbury | 5f |
| Hamilton | 13f |
| Kempton | 5f |
Note the predominant distance that aids front runners on a paced biased course is 5 furlongs. No shit Sherlock! If you miss the break, 5 fulongs is not a lot of time to make up ground; throw in a poor draw, a horse that likes to run behind a wall of horses is doomed from the start.
Note also that Bath’s 1m2f distance makes the top 10 from 120 course/distances/pace datapoint’s collected so far.
There is a 1m2f race at Bath on Wednesday. Maybe its time to unload the betting bank!
Update: 6/5/09
Updated the pace data last night and corrected an error which resulted in the 1m2f distance at Bath moving up the table. I’m putting my theories to the test here.
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Tags: Pace
4 Responses to Front Runner Top 10
Sandracer
May 5th, 2009 at 13:27
So we’re on the frontrunner over 10f at Bath next?
slipperytoad
May 5th, 2009 at 14:23
Yep! The pace data and my visit last week has given me an angle that I will explore this wednesday..
Paul
May 7th, 2009 at 00:37
Maggie Kate highlighted in error Slippery ?
slipperytoad
May 7th, 2009 at 07:53
Whoops.. Corrected! Thanks