The first adjustment to the process in 2009
Like all professional punters I am always on the hunt for value. The ‘only’ way to sniff out these illusive bets is to create a tissue pre race, match your opinion just before the off and back horses that are paying more than your tissue.
The phrase “paying more” equals the punters “edge” or “advantage” i.e. you perceived something in the race which the crowd did not see.
Most punters fall into the category of backing a horse at any price as long as it wins.
The so called “pro punters” fall into the category of not backing a horse unless their opinion against the crowd is at least 20% (ref Dave Nevison – A Bloody Good Winner).
Guess who was trying to squeeze an 80% advantage?
Reviewing my calculations last night, I found that I was adding margin for error upon margin for error made during race analysis. The resultant tissues were way off base when compared to the market which in my opinion is fairly efficient with the advent of Betfair.
For the moment I will try and achieve a 50% edge using the following formula
Edge = Probability of win x odds – probability of loss
Money Secrets At The Racetrack – Barry Meadow
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Tags: Tissue
4 Responses to Tissue Tweaks
Richard
January 5th, 2009 at 13:54
‘Value’ should be the key in any punters vocab! Keep on promoting the gospel Toad!
All the best for the New Year!
Cheers
R
slipperytoad
January 5th, 2009 at 14:29
Thanks however promoting value and realising the reality of value are entirely different. I’ll keeping chipping away though.
A.S.
January 7th, 2009 at 13:21
Hi there, I suppose you must be pissed off with Betfair, their charges and customer service and the general lack of competition in betting exchanges. I developed a website: http://www.betdaqrevolution.com we have a couple of members already even though the site is on for a couple of hours.
Check it out and please do sign in. It would be awesome if you could write something about the website on your blog and try to motivate people to sign in and take part in our experiment. Tell it to people you know as well. I know the website will not do a miracle but anyway it will raise awareness of Betdaq and that something is happening there. Plus it will show to Betfair that there is some resistance and this may make them think twice before any new scams.
You can leave your blog name in the Name section of the “create an account” and I will post a link to your blog next to your name on the list. If you have any comments, suggestions, want to contribute an article please write to: contact@betdaqrevolution.com
slipperytoad
January 14th, 2009 at 17:48
I dont have any particular issues with Betfair, however i long since moved my betting account from BF to BD a while ago.
When I get more time I will register with your web site