The title of this blog entry comes from the author Dick Mitchell who lists this as one of his 10 commandments of handicapping. The remaining nine are
2. Thou shalt understand Ability.
3. Thou shalt understand Form and Condition.
4. Thou shalt understand Angles and Hot Stats.
5. Thou shalt understand “Wager Value.”
6. Thou shalt make a Betting Line.
7. Thou shalt not bet against a legitimate favorite.
8. Thou shalt recognize false and vulnerable favorites.
9. Thou shalt keep detailed records.
10. Thou shalt never stop learning about handicapping.
“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”
John Maynard Keynes
Recently my inner voice reminded me that I was becoming defocused trying to master Novice Chases and Hurdles. So the notion of betting in these races lasted all but a week and in no part due to due to mounting casualties i.e. erosion of my betting bank. I was just spreading myself too thinly.
On a positive note, my experimental trades in Novice events, especially when the weight of money is focused on the favourite has been largely successful and I am in the process of setting up a separate betting bank to experiment further during the weekends. Anyway, back to the subject at hand.
The best handicapping literature in the world are your own records
After a golden period my pace handicapping has reached a period of stability with the betting bank neither advancing nor declining in terms profit. Stagnation! So once again it was time to stick my amphibious nose into my A4 lined note books to determine any adverse patterns.
If you are an American handicapper, racing on the All Weather surface revolves around the primary factors of Speed Ratings and Pace.
When pace bias is applied to our UK equivalents (ordered in terms of being advantageous to early pace and eliminating Great Leigh’s – for now)
- Southwell
- Woverhampton
- Kempton
- Lingfield
Each venue either helps or hinders a horse depending on its natural running style.
Given that All Weather races are run at what can be considered to be a true end to end gallop, speed ratings are extremely accurate.
When reviewing my records, the analysis threw up some other stuff that I knew already (and need to continually re-learn), other factors were hidden and required between the lines interpretation.
Firstly Wolverhampton; it’s a tight track and this trait is upheld in the draw stats. The other known fact is that early pace is crucial. Up to 7f miss the break and you are done. Above 8f, get yourself out in the lead and you might as well paint a roundel on your back. No great discoveries there.
Southwell, early pace and ability to handle the surface is a deciding factor. With the exception of 6f stall 1 is a coffin box, over 5f, early pace, position of stalls and number of runners is a key decider on whether you fancy is aligned to the golden highway down the middle of the track.
Lingfield. With the exception of 5f, chaos reigns as characterised by a late pace bias and blanket finishes. Horses that would normally fall into the non-contender category in respect to ability to see out a distance can get home here at nice prices.
I heard many a punter and commentator state that of all the All Weather surfaces Lingfield is a fair track. My contrarian opinion suggests that this is not the case. Lingfield is def punter unfriendly with plenty of hardluck stories in the final furlongs
Kempton; after hitting open goals on this course in countless Wednesday night meetings, the current hypothesis is that ability trumps pace and draw as handicapping factors here.
What about the horses running on the All Weather surface?
As I mentioned previously their individual running style is a factor but the grade of the race is also critical. The lower the grade the more unreliable the horses are and the further you must stray from form book study. One bright note is that Horses are like us; creatures of habit and tend to favour a certain courses/conditions. Therefore the statement “horses for courses” applies during pre race analysis.
So? What is the point of all this?
Well, my working assumption was to treat each All Weather venues the same when modelling the outcome of the race during the handicapping process.
Clearly given my discoveries, the individual nature of the All Weather courses dictates a tailored handicapping approach to each venue.
The quest for profit continues, there endth the lesson.
Related Posts
Tags: Betting Theory