Though results have been positive, in review I was still backing (or bordering on backing) far too many underlays even though I added a 20% fudge factor to my fair odds prior to the race. It was time to hit the handicapping library to review the subject of expected value.
50% bonus is not the same of 50% edge!
Money Secrets at the Racetrack – Barry Meadows
For all things related to money management the book above is the “Bravo 2.0”, “The God Farther” and “The Bible” all rolled into one!
Barry suggests that your edge i.e. your advanatge should be calculated in the following manner
(E) = Probability of Win x Odds – Probability of LossHaving read the book may times he suggests that you strive to achieve a 50% edge before betting to take account of
- The odds dropping after a bet, even if bets are made just before the race starts
- The impact of our bet on the odds
- Errors in our tissue compilation
No matter how good you get – you will never be quite as accurate of the public’s betting forecast!
Until this point, I never was able to obtain 50% edge on my bets, the tissues didn’t feel right when compaired to the market! Unfortunately I had made the basic error of simply adding a 50% margin to whatever fair odds I calculated.
I STILL have a lot to learn
{Update 4th Sept} By way of an example adjusted the spread sheet from the race at Kempton yesterday (8.50) to take account of expect value.
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Tags: Betting Theory
2 Responses to Expected Value
Scott F
September 4th, 2008 at 10:11
“No matter how good you get – you will never be quite as accurate of the public’s betting forecast!”
That all depends how high profile the events you attack. The lower profile the event (w/o fav markets in racing, Conference or Belgian football, British basketball etc), the more work you put in, the more of an edge you can gain over the market. Bookies only put this stuff up to offer a service and most punters don’t look at it. Do your homework and reap the rewards. It’s a key reason why I love the Olympics so much!!
Cheers
Scott
(sportismadeforbetting.blogspot.com)
slipperytoad
September 4th, 2008 at 17:01
Good point Scott!
in the “punter vs. odds complier” battle its not who you know but what you know and what your focus is.