I had one of those moments last night; falling asleep with a constant nagging thought in my subconscious.
The reason? The 8:50 at Musselburgh; a typical lesser of evil class 5 handicap won by Mr Rooney at 11/1. His first win for three years.
Mr Rooney was on my shortlist of contenders but he did not figure in my final betting selection.
Based on recent bets this was not the first time I coulda, woulda, shoulda. My subconscious was detecting a pattern and per the well used phrase “I slept on the problem”
To be a winner, one must know or perceive things which the public must not grasp.
If there is no special insight then there will be no special odds, no bargains, no overlays; the more that information is used by the public, the less it pays off at the bookies
As I iron out my betting approach I’ve recognised that small errors of process are magnified greatly. When I awoke this morning I recognised that I had violated the statement above in putting too much faith in the form of the horses.
I had forgotten that
- Anything running is class 5/6 handicaps is there for a reason. Basically horses in these grades are inconsistent.
- There are no hidden clues in the past performances of any of the contenders.
The crowd i.e. the betting public it not discerning. I like them handicapped the race using classical approaches when given the context of the race (1) & (2) apply.
My subconscious highlighted a defect to my betting process in that I was not giving prominence to Pace Handicapping that allows a handicapper to determine which horses are suited to the course bias. A key factor in races where nothing is going for each horse in respect to ability.
I have now corrected this fundemental error to set myself apart from the betting public.
The power of the mind eh.
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Tags: Betting Theory