The Great Debate: Handicapping vs. Betting
There are two factors that go into playing the horses; handicapping and betting.
Some would say that these two factors are the same thing and that you can’t be good at one without being good at he other – and they’d be right. And that’s because with the takeout, most everything comes down to value. And if you can’t select horses that offer value, and then bet in such a way that you’re able to maximise that value, then you won’t be able to beat the takeout over the long haul. Therefore, both factors are not mutually exclusive.
But, in order to understand the importance of this concept, you must first look at them as separate entities: the art of handicapping and selecting winners, and the art of betting and using your money to maximum advantage
Six Secrets of Successful Bettors
As I refine my pace handicapping process, I recognise the latter sentence brings forth another stage in my education.
Having completed my apprenticeship in basic handicapping and now working toward developing a process that expresses my opinion in terms of a betting forecast, more often than not when conducting post race review I discover that I’m letting opportunities to maximise my insight into a horse race pass me by. For example
Musselbrough 4:20 3yo+ Handicap Class 3 6f
I knew Racing Post’s overnight tissue favourite Divine Spirit was vulnerable even at 6/1.
The benefit of specialising in one area of racing is that over time you get to know each horse’s idiosycrancies within the subset. In summary I knew that the tissue complier had made a “right old rick” based in my previous experience of Divine Spirits previous performance and preferences.
So why didn’t I take advantage of the following traders wet dream in being in possession of knowledge that correctly predicts price movements on the exchanges and trade accordingly?
I’m also missing out on laying horses that are running against the course pace bias, horses that are badly drawn even though collectively the public has decided that said horse is a good thing and horses that are being asked to run above their ability.
I think it took about 50 goes before I stopped putting the fav in as the outsider and vice versa etc. Then a year (say 1000 goes) before they (my tissues) were usable – though I had already started using them! (I remain a committed believer in learning with real money.)
The tooting tissue comments on creating you own odds line.
Currently I’m focusing on refining my own odds line process to determine value based on pace criteria, however as outlined in the initial comments, finding the right bet to take advantage of your handicapping insight is just as important as handicapping itself!
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Tags: Betting Strategy
2 Responses to Missed Opportunities
Scott F
August 31st, 2008 at 23:04
Being able to price a market yourself is one of the best skills you can have as a punter. People use them in different ways, I like to play straight down the middle and back them if any are a few rolls over my prices, and lay them if any are a few rolls over. The problem with doing it for racing is it’s just so hard to keep up with all the meetings required to line up the form properly….
slipperytoad
September 1st, 2008 at 17:52
I hear you there Scott. For this reason a long time ago I decided to specialise in one form of racing (All Weather). Can’t wait till the season kicks off in November. The tissue process should be quite solid by then.