Dosage

In order to make money betting on sports, you must either have information that is not being used by the betting public, or you must have a superior ability to process the information that is public

Dosage is a mathematical analysis of the strengths in a thoroughbred pedigree based upon the location of certain outstanding sires in its family.

Originator of the contemporary Dosage System, Steve Roman has created a web site on the subject and associate book.

I first tried to utilise Dosage in my handicapping when trying to asses the relative abilities of un-raced juvenile 2yo horses. I had some moderate success with my initial experimentation and when assessing suitable betting strategies for life after Superform, I decided to include Dosage into my investment portfolio.

My intention is to handicap British Group 1 stakes races applying Dosage principles.

Stakes winners represent the highest level of Thoroughbred performance. Horses competing in stakes races are generally in better physical condition than those competing at lower levels. If physical problems do exist, the problems are likely better managed.

Horses competing in stakes races are more consistent. If they stay healthy they can be expected to put in a competitive effort on a continual basis. Horses competing in stakes races will usually be suited to the particular race conditions. With larger purses on the line, and with a limited number of races in a horse’s career, the connections of stakes horses tend to make management decisions that optimize opportunity.

This isn’t always the case at the lower end of the class structure. Cheaper horses are often raced into shape and their native talents easily can be obscured by chronic injury. Their form cycles are more erratic than those of their more gifted peers. Therefore, the intentions surrounding these runners are not always apparent.

With stakes horses, on the other hand, there is an excellent probability that they belong in their race. By the time they are mature they will have found their best distance profile and most competitive racing class. They are in to win, or at least get a part of the purse. The result of superior talent that is well managed and purposefully intended is that the outcome of races involving those animals is a better reflection of their innate qualities.

In the background I will conduct experiments to determine if Dosage is applicable to lower grades of  racing or National Hunt.

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