The wagering menu for baseball consist of the following
- Moneyline
- Totals
- Run Line
“Try chewing a few prawns before you announce to the world that you intend to devour an entire lobster”
Sir Ranulph Fiennes
From this menu I have chosen to focus on totals.
With totals (over/under), you are betting on the total number of runs scored in the game by both teams with extra innings included.
For example
Cleveland Indians v Texas Rangers
Total: 8.5
Over: 1.8
Under: 2.05
A punter could choose one of two over/under wagers on this match-up.
Betting on the Over 8.5 @ 1.8; if the total runs of both teams combined are more than 8.5, then the player wins at the odds indicated. Betting on the Under 8.5 @ 2.05; if the total runs of both teams combined are less than 8.5, then the player wins at the odds specified.
Seems simple enough; especially if you are in possession of a crystal ball which allows you to predict the final score (and the winning numbers of the national lottery).
Like all forms of handicapping the gambling gods require blood, sweat and tears in return for their spoils therefore, when handicapping baseball totals, your main task is to determine those factors that are critical in creating and limiting runs.
The Answer to Life, the Universe, and everything is 42
The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.
To determine which of the two choices offer value, in baseball the magic number is 9. The following table details the percentage of runs scored and bet total from 1998 to 2006 (courtesy of King Tao)
As you can see from the numbers, more games land on 7, 9 and 11 runs than any other number.
The reason is well documented; a tie game in baseball requires at least one more run to score before its ends. A game tied at 4-4 in the late innings more often than not will end with nine runs scored in the game; just like 3-3 games will usually end within a 4-3 victory from one team. Notice also baseball totals are more likely to be odd than even.
Using the above table, a punter can calculate the true over/under odds using the value set by the bookies. You can guess which numbers the odds compliers try to keep the right side of when setting the over/under odds.
Next week I shall start experimental selections so I can take them on at their own game
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Tags: Baseball, Sports Betting
2 Responses to Baseball Over and Unders
Mark Iverson
May 25th, 2008 at 09:28
Hi Mike,
Do baseball matches go in-play? If so, what’s the liquidity like on the markets you’ve mentioned?
It seems to me like you’ve got the tools (knowledge) to make some good money if you use them in the right way during the game.
Try not to give too much away about your strategy on your blog though – if I were looking to trade these markets I’d be writing it all down.
All the best mate,
Mark
slipperytoad
May 25th, 2008 at 19:09
I’m not sure Mark as my main focus is the non “trading” bet types.
I wouldn’t worry about me all divulging the crown jewels. The old gamblers adage applies in baseball as to all types of betting:
“to profit you must either have information that is not available to the general public, or you must have a superior ability to process the information that is public”
I am working on the former and the latter.