There is an excellent post on the Racing Forum, outlining thoughts from various forum members on the rules so called pro’s use in their day to day punting.
A fascinating read, the collective responses are worthy of a book and all for free!Just goes to show how much quality information can be obtained via the internet without paying for it. (Yes I am that cheap skate as I’m battening down the hatches in preparation for the forthcoming credit crunch that will hit these shores late this year.)
What’s good for my confidence is that I am already adopting most of the approaches outlined in the various comments. In short, the comments on the forum have already been summarised in the book ”
The Six Secrets of Successful Bettors (thanks Tooting)
1. They’re not really gamblers; they’re entrepreneurs whose business is betting.
2. They make the best use of available resources, and process information in an elegant way.
3. They only bet when they have an edge.
4. They manage their money to maximize their advantage.
5. They know how to handicap themselves (i.e. they know their own strengths and weaknesses).
6. They know how to handle their emotions as well as their money.
I have (2) totally hacked. However what motivated this post are the following comments I found on that useful tool called the World Wide Web.
Ron Cox a noted handicapper observed that it wasn’t until he started asking himself how or if he could make money on the race instead of asking who the winner was that he really began winning at the races. Instead of spending all your time trying to figure out who the winner will be, try to figure out if there’s a way you can make money in the race. If you can’t, pass the race and avoid wearing the losers’ suit.
Now if I could implement the above statement into my handicapping I could also cross off (1) and (3) on this list.
Most pros would say that the optimal method of ensuing that you make money long term is to bet when the odds are in your favour. The process by which you arrive at a punting go/no go decision is your own betting forecast which should indicate where your opinion differs from the crowd. When the odds are in your favour a bet is considered “value”, in theory.
However as outlined by the forum comments (and by my own experiences so far) there is more than one method of being successful in this game.
Given that my preferred area of punting are some of the lower graded All weather races, their chaotic nature does not lend themselves to tradition handicapping methods.
Although I have adopted a non standard approach to these races, I have still slept walked into the gamblers fallacy of trying to pick the winner instead of figuring out how I can earn a profit once I handicapped the race. (double d’oh)
Yet again more food for thought as I strive to adopt an investment approach to my punting..
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Tags: Betting Strategy