These comments were prompted by a program that was recorded on that excellent piece of kit called my Sky Plus PVR. It was an episode from Horizon and the title was “How to make better decisions”
2/1 The Salwick Flyer, 2/1 Supercast, 6/1 Muncaster Castle
When reviewing the early morning prices I considered Muncaster Castle a value bet at 8/1 or better. The Salwick Flyer or Supercast were value at 5/2.
The eventual winner was Supercast. Here are the comments from the race.
1st Supercast (IRE) 9-4 S Hitchcott N J Vaughan 5 15/8 f always prominent, raced keenly, ridden over 1f out, led entering final furlong, driven out opened 11/4
4th The Salwick Flyer (IRE) 9-0 P Makin Miss L A Perratt 5 11/4 mid-division, pulled hard, headway over 2f out, staying on same pace when slightly hampered inside final furlong opened 15/8 touched 3/1 £1500-£500
5th Muncaster Castle (IRE) 8-13 C Catlin R F Fisher 4 12/1 chased leader, led over 2f out, ridden and headed entering final furlong, no extra towards finish
The results indicate that I handicapped the race correctly. However
Why did I decide to make small stake on my early value selection when it violated my “natural odds rule”? Was I subconsciously following the conformation bias?
Conformation bias confirms one’s preconceptions by looking for examples that are in line with our own viewpoint, but ignoring any information that might disprove it.
The quality books on handicapping suggest that you should not look at anyone’s assessment of the race until you have completed your own handicapping. Could conformation bias be the reason?
During pre-race betting Salwick Flyer and Supercast were both value selections at some time during that period, what/which approach should I take when this occurs? What happens when I have more that one overlay in the race? What happens if … … .. ?
My dilemma may confirm the fact touted by certain horse racing literature that some punters are excellent handicappers. The reason why their records show a loss is because they are poor decision makers.
Moving from “selection orientated” to “decision orientated” punter by way of my personal tissue should help things but after watching the program there is still a lot to consider when making decisions under pressure
Related Posts
Tags: Selection