Not your common or garden British flurry that shuts down our country for 3 days or more. The stuff that is falling at the moment is the “stop all activity and hibernate” real McCoy.
Hopefully I’ll be able to fly home Saturday.
Howerver as I wrote previously, I am amazing by the accuracy and efficiency of the betting market and with the advent of Betfair, their market seems to factor each and every piece of data (inside knowledge, other handicappers, arber’s, market forces, hype etc) to produce what is a very fair assessment of the chances for each and every contender in the horse race
Maybe I’m deluding myself and in reality the races I am punting should be passed frequently i.e “no play” and bets only placed when an edge is detected and the bookmakers are defenceless?
Maybe I should abide by Cramers mantra
There will be two main reasons for completely bypassing races and these reasons are equivalent to an inverted definition of wager value
- No horses in the field carry any positive factors which have been identified as having wager value
- The handicapper fails to come up with any insight for the race which would differ from what the public is expected to find
The question remains though if I am to become a pro how can I find enough lucrative opportunities to provide an income?
Under consideration at the moment are
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In low grade All Weather handicaps forgo the tissue creation process and let Betfair do the work?
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Expand my betting armoury i.e. look for other betting opportunities such as “Lays”, “Exactas”, “Tote Placepot”, “Trading”
-
Expand my activities into other sports?
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Tags: Betting Theory
1 Response to Wager Value
Anonymous
December 14th, 2007 at 17:12
Dear Mr Toad,
Interesting to read of your latest exploits. Especially:
1. Looking for some other “sport”
2. Your maxim about effectively not following the herd. (ahem…)
It strikes me that in these days of financial uncertainty, banking collapses, pin-striped financiers launching themselves from the penthouse window, dire warnings of “hard times”, then the real punters get stuck in – avoid the herd and make the killing. After all, betting on whether Becks scores first in a footy match is no different than taking a view on the direction of the FTSE or Dow (up or down). Unfortunately, I don’t have the downstairs tackle for such a bold approach. Worth considering though?
Sincerely
A small underground creature